After continuing the FIVE for the first few weeks I've realized that I don't have the time this year to track and play and handicap FIVE games in addition to whatever it is I decide to play.
So, I'm not going to do that any longer. Despite the fact that I was doing pretty good this year.
What I AM going to do is analyze a few games and talk about numbers where I'm considering pulling the trigger, or discussing game where there was opportunity that may now be missed, and explain when you could have gotten the line, and why so many probably missed it. I'll also discuss games where it might be wise to wait just a minute to see if something better becomes available.
So, without further ado:
FIVE Games for your consideration.
1. Houston @ North Texas (Opened at North Texas +2.5) - The second this line opened it dropped to North Texas +2, then North Texas +1. Then the bottom fell out. Houston QB D'Eriq King announced his red-shirt decision for the remainder of the year and the line immediately closed and re-opened at N. Texas -6. It's now all the way to -7.5. Here's the deal though.
Running the numbers I LIKED N. Texas as a home dog over UH even BEFORE the King announcement, and the feeling that UH is shutting it down this year. You could have grabbed them at +2 very easily if you'd been paying attention to lines on Sunday when they opened. Sadly, that ship has sailed.
There MIGHT be some small value at -6.5 if money starts coming in on the Cougars, but I doubt it. My guess now is that UNT kicks off somewhere in the range of -8.5 to -9.5.
2. Akron @ UMass (Opened at Akron -6) - This was a "blink and you missed it" opportunity as the line opened at -6, and then after the first round of betting slid to -5, before settling in at -7. If you were paying attention on Sunday however there was a decent opportunity to grab Akron at -5.
This is going to be a terrible game between two of the worst two teams in football. Here's the catch, UMass might be worse than anyone else by a long-ways, and Akron, albeit not good, has shown some signs of improvement. They at least displayed signs of a pulse against UAB and Central Michigan, before getting rolled by a good Troy team last week. UMass has shown nothing so far.
3. Cincinnati @ Marshall (Game opened at Cincinnati -2.5) - IF you could have bet into this game at the line opening -2.5 was outstanding value. It's currently sitting around -3.5 to -4 and I believe the value is gone. The last value play was -3, and if it dips down to that number I'd try and grab it. Cincinnati is a very good AAC team while Marshall is just a "good" AAC team. Being on the road will negate Cincy's edge some, but I still think they win and win easy.
This is another case where paying attention to next Saturday's college lines on Sunday might pay some dividends.
4. Ohio State @ Nebraska (Line opened at Ohio State -7) - Once this line opened, bettors had a feeding frenzy until they beat it up to -18. If you could get -7 (doubtful) as a recreational bettor then you're onto something, but I think there was value to be found here all the way up to -13.5, which you COULD get on Sunday.
That said, the line is still moving toward Ohio State so it's likely that the money is piling on the Buckeyes. This game should become an arbitrage opportunity if it continues to move the Buckeyes way, and it could be HUGE if it lands in the middle.
5. UCLA @ Arizona (Line opened at Arizona -7.5) - Here's a case where, if you like Arizona, it might pay dividends to wait. The current line is Arizona -7 but after last week's upset of Washington State the public seems to really like the Bruins here.
I can see this line dropping to Arizona -6 or -6.5 before kick-off and that would be a move across a key number that you could possibly want to take advantage of. Now, granted, there are risks with this strategy. For one, it's hard to tell if what we saw last week from UCLA was fool's gold and it's still unclear just how good Arizona really is. If you like UCLA you might have missed your value window however, so it's probably best to just watch the one play.
Profitable sports betting is HARD. Very few people can do it. Most people come in, take a look at the board and bet on games that 'feel' right. It's a very different thing to update the numbers, run your algorithms and fire based on that. The good news is, there are people out there doing that number crunching for you if you're not willing to create one yourself.
I wouldn't advise paying a tout, in most cases they're no better than random luck, but I would suggest you go out and try to find whatever it is you can to try and give you the biggest edge possible. Believe it or not, there are some very good bettors out there offering up selected picks for free. Pick about 5 of those and you have a week made with no additional expense.
Whatever you do, don't tail me. But I've told you that before.
Good luck in whatever you play.
