Sports Betting: Square Money

Given the title of this blog, you would not be surprised to find out that I find all of the talk about "sharp plays" and "public (square) plays" to be fascinating.

I do for a couple of reasons:

1. There 's a lot of confusion in the sports betting market about what a "sharp" actually is.

If you listen to a lot of the noise there's an awful lot of "sharp" money out there, a lot of people who consider themselves "sharp" and a lot of people who consider others to be "sharp" because they talk. A LOT.

The fact is few of these "sharps" really are.

2. The Public (or square, going forward) money is more prevalent in the market than you think.

A big proportion of so-called "sharp" money is actually "square" money with above average PR.  Many touts, so-called 'experts', are as square as it gets if you track their play, examine the lines they grab and follow their results. Also, many touts offer up plays with stale lines (with no disclosure) and cherry-pick results, sometimes slicing the pie so thin it becomes translucent.

I was not surprised all that much then to see the following Bloomberg story about Wall Street deciding they have the analytical chops to dive into sports betting:

Wall Street is wading into sports gambling as legalization spreads. Bloomberg

The line between trading and gambling has always been fuzzy. So now that 13 U.S. states have live legal sports betting and several more have approved it, following a 2018 Supreme Court ruling, it’s natural to wonder if Wall Street will start looking for a piece of the action.

A few firms already are. At least one is actually making bets, much as a hedge fund trades stocks. Susquehanna International Group LLP, a quantitative trading firm headquartered in Bala Cynwyd, Pa., is building up a sports betting division in Ireland, where such wagers have long been legal. The business unit, called Nellie Analytics—named after co-founder Jeff Yass’s dog—has about 20 employees.

Of course, this is not the norm, and the article goes on to say that many hedge funds are getting involved by investing in back-end technology but, as an observer of the sports betting world, the above blurb intrigued me because I'm sure this division is going to immediately be classified as "sharp" despite the fact that they're most probably not.

First, they're probably day traders, trying to adjust their modeling to handle sports wagers. Second, they have no track record of prolonged success that would insinuate that they are, in fact, "sharp" at picking lines and placing bets.  Third, you primarily see them laying action at retail books, which is the very definition of 'square'.

The the European books are taking their action, with no punitive limits or back-offs, to this date shows that their betting is based on little more than random averages.  In short: luck.  Even the squarest of bettors can find hit-rates of somewhere around 50%, the sharpest of bettors float around 53-55%.  The difference seems small, but is actually huge.

Given the track record of Wall Street it won't be long before these betting divisions gussy themselves up and start operating as 'corporate touts', putting a shiny new coat of paint on a dilapidated business practice that's remarkably similar to investment firms.

You pay regardless of financial outcome. Win or lose, they make money off of your fees and commissions.

Sound familiar?

College Football: Nobody (Except LSU) has played anybody.

The question of who is the "Top 4" and in the College Football Playoff this year is a tricky one. Unless we have some major attrition the rest of the way, and history suggests we will, there are going to be a LOT of angry people arguing over who the number 4 team should be.  If things play out as I expect, 1-3 should be pretty straight forward.

The problem comes when you start looking at the team's schedules, and records, and you start to realize that, outside of the top 3 (who are currently undefeated) NONE of the remaining team's have all that strong of a case for inclusion.

Let's look at the records....

1. LSU

Best Wins: Alabama, Florida, Auburn

Best Loss: None (undefeated)

LSU is a clear number one. They have three top-tier wins and one good win over Texas at a neutral site. It's just not close.

2. Ohio State

Best Wins: Wisconsin, Cincinnati

Best Loss: None (undefeated)

The Buckeyes are a clear #2.  The gap between them and Clemson is actually pretty large as you'll see.

3. Clemson

Best wins: Texas A&M

Best Loss: None (undefeated)

The problem for Clemson is that there are no more opportunities for them to pick up a real, quality win. Unless the two above them lose, they will not be moving up from here.


4. Georgia

Best wins: Florida, Notre Dame, Auburn

Best Loss: South Carolina

Granted, they've only lost one, and the SC loss, at home, is a head scratcher.  But they have three pretty solid wins that give them the edge now. Their problem? They have to face LSU in the SEC Title game.  Ugh(a)...

5. Alabama

Best Wins: Texas A&M

Best Loss: LSU

They have a game against Auburn upcoming, but before that they play FCE doormat WCU. The Tide's schedule is awful this year and it's illustrative of the myth of the SEC Blender that all the coaches cry about.  Even if they beat Auburn the argument for their inclusion is going to be flimsy, but my guess is, if they win out, they get in.

6. Oregon

Best Wins: USC

Best Loss: Auburn on a neutral field in the first game of the season.

Talk all you want about how "Oregon should have won that game" but they didn't, and the PAC-12 this year was not very good. Unless Bama loses I don't see them getting in with that schedule and the loss to Auburn, who will be a common opponent with the Tide.

7. Utah

Best Wins:  Washington

Best Loss: USC

Another team with zero resume. They just haven't beat anyone good and the USC loss is probably enough to keep them out.  A win over Oregon would help, but outside of that.....

8. Penn State

Best Wins: Michigan, Iowa

Best Loss: Minnesota

The Nittany Lions have a CHANCE to move up if they beat Ohio State this weekend, I would actually put them in over Bama should they win out, and win the B1G, but I don't see that happening.

9. Oklahoma

Best Wins: Baylor, Texas

Best Loss: Kansas State

They still have a shot to move up with wins over OSU and probably a rematch with Baylor in the Bix XII(Ten) championship game, but that loss to Kansas State is like a giant wart on their schedule. Needing luck to escape Iowa State at home hurt as well.

10. Minnesota

Best Wins: Penn State

Best Loss: Iowa

Really needed to win at Iowa, then two weeks from now against Wisconsin and again in the B1G Championship to have a chance.  Outside of the two games I mentioned, they've just not played anyone of note.


The problem here is that Alabama is the 800 lb gorilla in the room.  Yes, their schedule has sucked, they've lost their QB, but they still have the straightest path to the 4 seed because, ironically, they probably won't play for a conference championship.

In a season where there are two good teams, one team that's a defending champion, extremely talented but has under-performed, and a bunch of teams with bad schedules and rough losses, a 1-loss Tide with only a loss to LSU seems to be the choice the committee will make.

This is illustrative of everything that's wrong with the CFP, but there you are.

Sports betting: Embrace the GRIND

Despite what you hear from many touts on Twitter and on sports gambling media, the game of sports betting is not always 80% win rates and bankrupting bookies.

Usually it's a slog.

Not that good weekends/runs don't happen (they do) but most of the time you're clicking along at 52% or less and wondering just why it is that you do this crazy thing called sports betting.  I, for one, have had many weeks where I sit back and marvel how 6 picks that my numbers suggested were good, somehow went 3-3 or 2-4 and I look at my balance at the end of the week and it's substantially the same as it was to begin the week.

But that's sports betting.  Even the most successful in the industry slog along with low profit margins and fight the Vig continuously. That's the game.

The reason for this is that the house is VERY good, and finding opportunities to beat them, above and beyond random luck, is HARD. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something, and making most of their money off of pick sales rather than actual picks, or is just flat out lying on Twitter, or is looking at a small sample size.

People DO, and can, go on sustained runs. I know several who openly post their picks, and they're good picks, who are having magnificent seasons, long runs of winning etc. I've also known those same people to have down periods, to struggle at times, and to be very open about doing so.

Losing in sports betting from time to time is not a sign of a bad handicapper, it's the sign that you're actually handicapping and being truthful about the results. In addition to inflated records, etc. one of the worst sins is the past-posting of odds.

Not that you cannot take a side early, before the line really settles in. I have done the same things and, although it doesn't always work out, I try my best to be open and honest when it occurs.

My NFL plays this week are an example of this.  On Monday I took advantage of several lines that I liked, that I thought might not be there later in the week.  They are:

Pittsburgh -7
Colts +3.5
Baltimore -3.5

While none of these lines have moved significantly yet, my feeling is that they're going to be long gone by Sunday.  And, granted, the Baltimore line is not the best one in the world, I don't think it's going to see 3 and, in fact, I think it will move somewhat significantly the other way.

My feeling, you have the right to disagree, is that past posting a line, provided you say when you took the line, and acknowledge the line has moved, is not that big of a sin. UNLESS you're trying to use that "success record" to tout actual picks using a record that's largely built on past posting.

There are a LOT of inflated records out there that are built entirely on past-posted lines that may, but probably are not, be legit. Don't fall into that trip.

But another trap to avoid is the "woe is me" trap.  If you're struggling, re-evaluate your performance and try to figure out what happened when it all DID go tits up. Mistakes are not killers unless you do not learn from them.

If you don't, the lesson you're going to learn is how a bank roll can disappear and just how damaging it can be to have to re-load and start from scratch. This is also what can get you in trouble. Don't chase your losses, learn from them.

Once you learn to do that simple skill then your performance as a sports bettor is going to improve mightily.

Track your bets, analyze them, learn from your losses and enjoy your winners. But learn from the winners also. It's just as important to understand what you're doing right as it is to learn from what you're doing wrong.

It's a helluva lot more fun to boot.

Good luck however you bet.

Pour one out for the degenerate's diner: Aria Cafe

What we feared was coming for a while has been confirmed.

Aria Cafe is closing to make way for Din Tai Fung a critically, and publicly, acclaimed Thai dumpling shop.

I love Thai food probably more than the next person, in fact, I've warned the groups at work that I manager for years that if they do not select a place for our monthly luncheons, they will be eating Thai food every time, but I cannot help to be just a little disappointed in this news, despite the fact that we have known it's coming for a while now.

In retrospect, the writing was on the wall when they cut back the hours for Aria Cafe.  That was too bad because it had long been the one place that the degenerate gambler could go grab a decent sandwich (or, if you had a Galaxy Brain, a bowl of Chicken Noodle Soup) at 3 AM after a long VP or Blackjack session and before you started your early morning gambling.

The Aria Cafe had a great location, was a good room, and had a spectacular late night/early morning view.  It was simple, relatively inexpensive for the Strip, and just doesn't have a place in the hyper-competitive, faux-luxury wonderland that the Strip is now trying to be.

The reality is that we don't live in a diner and iced-tea world any more. And Aria Cafe was a throwback on a street that doesn't really care all that much for history.  I'm not saying that it's a bad thing, only a thing.  In this case it's a thing that has eliminated one of the better late-night places on the Strip.

In fact, unless you're looking for high-end dining, the Strip is pretty much a wasteland right now outside of the Cosmopolitan (Block 16 and The Pizza Shop) and the Miracle Mile.

What I am sure of is that Din Tai Fung will be more expensive than was the Aria Cafe, and it will be packed. Whether or not it will scratch the degenerate's dining itch is yet to be known, but I doubt it.

This continues a trend of me finding less and less to do on the Strip as my Vegas time goes forward. While I enjoyed my stay at Park MGM, there just wasn't a lot that I wanted to DO there.  I found Eataly to be just "meh" but overly pricey, and the one VP bar that they have remaining was OK, but you still have issues with the pay tables being awful.

Block 16 at the Cosmo, especially Lardo, was exceptional, and I'm sure I'll spend more time there, but outside of that the Strip is just a place to see the Conservatory, the Fountains, V/P and WynnCore and the other high end hotels before moving on to off-strip locations.

I had a better time at Born and Raised Henderson than I did at any place on the Las Vegas Strip.  And I spent way less money, ate just as well, and made a ton of new friends as well.

Just another nail in the Strip coffin for me TBH.