Despite what you hear from many touts on Twitter and on sports gambling media, the game of sports betting is not always 80% win rates and bankrupting bookies.
Usually it's a slog.
Not that good weekends/runs don't happen (they do) but most of the time you're clicking along at 52% or less and wondering just why it is that you do this crazy thing called sports betting. I, for one, have had many weeks where I sit back and marvel how 6 picks that my numbers suggested were good, somehow went 3-3 or 2-4 and I look at my balance at the end of the week and it's substantially the same as it was to begin the week.
But that's sports betting. Even the most successful in the industry slog along with low profit margins and fight the Vig continuously. That's the game.
The reason for this is that the house is VERY good, and finding opportunities to beat them, above and beyond random luck, is HARD. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something, and making most of their money off of pick sales rather than actual picks, or is just flat out lying on Twitter, or is looking at a small sample size.
People DO, and can, go on sustained runs. I know several who openly post their picks, and they're good picks, who are having magnificent seasons, long runs of winning etc. I've also known those same people to have down periods, to struggle at times, and to be very open about doing so.
Losing in sports betting from time to time is not a sign of a bad handicapper, it's the sign that you're actually handicapping and being truthful about the results. In addition to inflated records, etc. one of the worst sins is the past-posting of odds.
Not that you cannot take a side early, before the line really settles in. I have done the same things and, although it doesn't always work out, I try my best to be open and honest when it occurs.
My NFL plays this week are an example of this. On Monday I took advantage of several lines that I liked, that I thought might not be there later in the week. They are:
Pittsburgh -7
Colts +3.5
Baltimore -3.5
While none of these lines have moved significantly yet, my feeling is that they're going to be long gone by Sunday. And, granted, the Baltimore line is not the best one in the world, I don't think it's going to see 3 and, in fact, I think it will move somewhat significantly the other way.
My feeling, you have the right to disagree, is that past posting a line, provided you say when you took the line, and acknowledge the line has moved, is not that big of a sin. UNLESS you're trying to use that "success record" to tout actual picks using a record that's largely built on past posting.
There are a LOT of inflated records out there that are built entirely on past-posted lines that may, but probably are not, be legit. Don't fall into that trip.
But another trap to avoid is the "woe is me" trap. If you're struggling, re-evaluate your performance and try to figure out what happened when it all DID go tits up. Mistakes are not killers unless you do not learn from them.
If you don't, the lesson you're going to learn is how a bank roll can disappear and just how damaging it can be to have to re-load and start from scratch. This is also what can get you in trouble. Don't chase your losses, learn from them.
Once you learn to do that simple skill then your performance as a sports bettor is going to improve mightily.
Track your bets, analyze them, learn from your losses and enjoy your winners. But learn from the winners also. It's just as important to understand what you're doing right as it is to learn from what you're doing wrong.
It's a helluva lot more fun to boot.
Good luck however you bet.
