The news that UT-Austin and Oklahoma have approached the SEC regarding membership should not come as a massive surprise. The Big XII (Ten) has always been on life support as long as the big two wanted it to be. Once they decide to pull the plug, the other eight schools are going to need to scramble and hope to find a good landing spot.
And yes, it is and has been for a while now all about money.
I had thought for some time that the logical landing spot for UT-Austin and OU would have been the Pac-12. What I did not take into full account was the full breadth of the incompetence the West Coast conference contained. IF there was any hope of competitive balance in the future the Pac-12 needed to rise up above their mediocrity and embrace these two brand titans in order to compete. IF the SEC remains sensible, and doesn't fall victim to the feverish rantings of Aggie, then they'll understand that by bringing in these two very profitable, and very high-profile, programs will only ensure their dominance of the college football landscape long-term.
The Big XII is toast. After the departure of the big two the highest profile team remaining is...ummmm..is...well....Oklahoma State?
Of course, I'm talking purely from a football perspective, which is what this is all about. The Big XII could try and reinvent themselves as a basketball conference by bringing in say, Memphis, Cincinnati and possibly even Houston but from a football perspective that's not much better than the current American. In fact, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State and Texas Tech might look to the American as a landing spot.
Kansas is a weird bird. They have an extremely profitable basketball team but their football program is in shambles. Most people are pointing to the B1G for them as a possible landing spot but I don't see it. Why would the B1G want another Rutgers? A Rutgers with a bad TV market located in a below-average recruiting area? Methinks the Big East might be a landing spot for Kansas who would then demote the football program to the FCS. It might be the best solution for everyone.
West Virginia is interesting, they are still a very popular program in the region and could add some value to the ACC, who is going to need to figure things out if they're going to even remotely compete with the SEC juggernaut that is to come. The ACC might even consider Oklahoma State, who would not be a regional fit but since when does geography matter in modern college sports?
Oklahoma State could also try and team up with Texas Tech and move West to the Pac-12. Yes, travel would be a bitch and neither school really brings a lot to the Conference but moving to 16 teams is gong to be a must for the power conferences if this thing pushes through.
Based on that logic, despite Iowa being agin' it you would think the B1G would have interest in Iowa State, and possibly (but not very likely) Kansas State. I would certainly find the Wildcats of the Little Apple more appealing than Kansas right now, but a better target for the B1G might be the aforementioned Cincinnati Bearkats.
Of course, all of this is just speculation, their is nothing official about UT-Austin or OU moving to the SEC yet, just reports that they've inquired about inclusion. What is for sure is that UT-Austin and OU have decided that the Big XII is no longer worth keeping on life support and that their monetary athletic futures would be better suited playing under another flag. The proposed expansion of the College Football Playoff makes this even more likely since their road gets easier in the SEC due to the at-large positions.
What of those outside looking in?
Strangely, the American Athletic Conference could actually improve their standing by casting off their bottom tier (ECU, Temple) and replacing them with TCU and Baylor. They still would not be considered a Power conference but they would be a tougher one. I also see a possibility where Navy takes a look at Army and says "You know what? We're going the Independent route as well." In my mind that would be their best option, and would allow ECU to remain while Temple gets grabbed up by the MAC, a much better home for them than the American.
Regardless of how this plays out, in four or five years it's very likely that we're looking down at a markedly different college football landscape, and the path will be cleared for the new "Power 4" conferences to finally pull away from the NCAA and start their own, semi-pro, gig. IF the SEC adds the Big 2 from the Big XII their conference identity will become almost monolithic, more so than it is even today. Yes, aTm will not be happy, until those checks start rolling in. Then they will live with it.
The rest of us will learn to live with it as well. At least we'll still have the FunBelt, C-USA and the MAC to entertain us.
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