After missing a couple of bets in week 0, we rebounded nicely in Week 1 going 4-1 for the FIVE (curse your conservative nature David Cutcliffe) and 7-2 overall. This brings us to 4-1 for the FIVE this year (yay) and 7-4 overall for the young college football season. (As a reminder, I only list the FIVE but I have other plays. I'm not selling plays, these are just the ones that I really liked when typing out this blog.)
Week Two can often be a lot of fun because the market tends to overreact to a small sample size in week 1. This means that there is often opportunity to be found in some lines that are skewed off of what your numbers show they should be. Early in the season, trust your numbers. This might get a little more dicey later in the season as the market gains efficiency, especially in the Power 5 conferences but, for now, I trust what my numbers are telling me.
With that in Mind......
1. Illinois +10 @ Virginia. (Curr*: +10 O/U 55)
Here's one where I think the market is overreacting to a team in a classic sandwich week, losing to a lesser known team that's actually pretty darn good. UTSA are a contender in Conference USA, West Division, and have a pretty salty offense. Virginia beat up on an FCS foe that they should have beaten and I think they are getting too much credit for that, while Illinois is taking too much blame.
2. South Carolina +2 @ East Carolina (Curr: -1.5 O/U 56.5)
This line opened at -3 SC at most books, and almost immediately moved to ECU -2. When I saw SC at +2 -110 at my book I pounced. Even at -1.5 think this is playable, maybe even up to -2.5. Watching line moves and taking advantage of a market issue is a feature, not a bug in sports betting.
3. Oklahoma State -12.5 vs. Tulsa (Curr: -13 O/U 51.5)
OSU did not look impressive against Missouri State in their opener. And Tulsa looked even worse, loving to UC Davis at home. It typically takes any Mike Gundy coached team a game to get things moving, but they usually perform much better in game 2 vs game 1. I think we're going to see that here against a Tulsa team that's probably going to struggle in the AAC this year.
4. Rutgers -2 vs. Syracuse (Curr: -2.5 O/U 52)
As I predicted last week, Rutgers was MUCH the better team than Temple. NOT the Temple that people think of when Matt Ruhle was coaching there. I think Syracuse is overrated after facing an Ohio team that's having to deal with a late head coaching change after the retirement of Solich. I expect to see Rutgers win comfortably this week and next week against Delaware, before their schedule gets much, much tougher.
5. BYU ML +220 vs. Utah. (Curr: +220, -7 Utah, O/U 49)
BYU did not look spectacular over a fairly pedestrian Arizona team, while Utah beat up FCS member Weber State. Because of this Utah is installed as a fairly good sized favorite, with people believing that their transfer QB is the key to them finally getting an offense that matches their always good defense. There are a couple of reasons that I like the Cougars here though. 1. It's still early in the season and they have not yet been beaten down by the sausage grinder of a schedule that they go through as an independent. 2. It's not unusual for Utah to look good against inferior competition. Finally, this is the Holy War. Strange things happen when the Holy War is played in Provo.
Honorable Mention: Coastal Carolina -25 vs. Kansas. (Curr: -25, O/U 52)
Friday's game is going to get ugly, early. Kansas has the best coach that they've had since Mangino but the talent cupboard is bare, bare, bare. I see this as a 56-10 type of game. (You might want to play the over as well if you're so inclined.)
And finally.....
Washington @ Michigan (-7, O/U 48.5)
Being a Michigan Man I always have to talk about Big Blue, despite the fact that I would not touch this game with a 20 foot betting pole. Losing Ronnie Bell for the season is going to hurt, meaning that someone in the WR corps is going to have to step up. Washington did get beat by Montana, at home, and now they have to go on the road to the Big House but.....it's Michigan. Stay away, stay far away.
But Go Blue.
*Current lines taken from ESPN.com as of 12:39PM on Wednesday, 9/8/21. It is probable that, by the time you've read this, things have changed.
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