College Football 2022: Week 1 Recap (Hint: It's BAD)

 "I haven't seen an ass whipping that bad since someone put a banana down my pants and turned a monkey loose" - Uncle Eddie.

After a hot start, 2-0, with both West Virginia and Central Michigan (just) covering as underdogs, things started to unravel on Friday (Temple) and fell fully to shit on Saturday. 

I still don't think Nevada-Reno is any good, but man Texas State is awful. Boise State should have beaten Oregon State, but looked sloppy, and Houston, ah Houston.  What in the heck were you doing? Even SDSU blew it against Arizona, while breaking in their new stadium, on National TV.

I did salvage a little thanks to Coastal Carolina covering, and then a little more with a couple of smallish live bets, but it was not good.

Then came the LSU debacle, and a (needlessly tight) Clemson/Georgia Tech under (51.5 the total finished at 51) which looked for all of the world as if it was going to breeze in easy.  This, is why I frequently do NOT bet unders.  Fortunately I had to be up at 4:30AM to go to work the next day so I went to bed at the half and spared myself the sweat.

The good news is that there is a lot of season left to go, and many more opportunities to climb back out of this little hole that I've dug. 

The key is to not panic. Have faith in your system and your numbers. Don't overreact to week 1, but just tweak, and continue to tweak the model to filter our possible noise and correct errors. At least now we have some actual game data to consider.

Look, you're going to see a LOT of data from touts saying how well they did last weekend, and that this means you should buy their packages and basically give them your money. Don't buy it.  The way things are going you should have just faded me.

But, and this is important, I've had losing weekends before, and I'll have them again.  I've already jumped on 8 plays for next weekend early and I'm looking at one more, if my book will ever post the damn game.

Sports betting is fun, and it's work, but mostly fun. Bet within your means and we'll all be just fine.

College Football 2022: Bet Smart Kiddos

 In case you did not know......

College football is BACK!!!

And, in a big way.  Last week was an appetizer, this weekend is a four-course meal. But. just like it's not required that you finish every last morsel on your plate, there's nothing that says you need to bet every game on the marquee either.  Pick and choose your spots, live and learn. Unless you're the worst handicapper in recorded history or, let's be honest here, very lucky, you're going to win some and lose some. 

Over a long season you're going to have winning weeks, and some losing ones.  You're going to have days where you feel like Alabama, and days where you feel like Nebraska. Don't let the latter days make you like Scott Frost (It's a long walk home).

Keep your bankroll under control, only bet big when you have an advantage, learn to embrace the bad beat and, finally, really work to learn the difference between good bets, and bad bets. HINT: Whether or not they are winners has nothing to do with whether or not they were good or bad.

Due to work and time restraints, this year, I'm not going to do the FIVE on here.  I'll still post some gaming information and I'll still put in one or two plays, but I'm not taking much time to research current lines, I'm only going to tell you the lines that I took,  WARNING: They might (are probably) stale at this point.

The main reason for this is that I'm not a Tout. I have no desire to sell you a damn thing. As a matter of fact, if you're looking to buy bets from me, you're an idiot. I am not now, nor have I ever been, nor do I want to be, a professional sports bettor. I'm an accountant who likes to dabble in sports betting. You know, for fun! So, if you follow these plays, and you lose, you got exactly what you paid for them. If you fade these plays, and you lose, you got exactly what you paid for them.

Without Further ado, here are (some) of my plays for the weekend.  Many of these were made when the lines first opened or a week or so back.

Thursday, September 1:

West Virginia (+7.5) vs. Pittsburgh. It seems that everyone and their brother (including me) is on this one. It's a good number for the Mountaineers against a Pitt team that is breaking in a new QB. Remember, this blog IS called "The Public Money" and I'm not afraid to side with the public from time to time.

Central Michigan (+22) vs. Oklahoma State. I'm not terribly high on CMU this season, and I don't think we're going to get an upset like we almost had a few years ago, but OSU is a notorious slow starter and this line is off, even from my power ratings.

Friday, September 2:

Temple (+8) vs. Duke. That's it. That's all I have for today.  Temple is a pretty good team and Duke is breaking in a new coach.  I think the Blue Devils start slow before winning by a FG at the end.

Saturday, September 3:

I actually have a TON of bets today, here are just a few:

Boise State (ML) vs. Oregon State. Sometimes handicapping is not hard. I think, and my power rankings back this up, the Broncos are the better team.

Texas State (ML) vs. Nevada-Reno. The Wolfpack are not a good team. Don't let last weeks win over should-not-be-FBS New Mexico State fool you.  I think you see why today.

Arizona vs SDSU (-6). The Aztecs are the better team, are opening a new stadium, and should win this going away.

Houston (-5.5 &-4) vs. UTSA. If I liked the Cougars at -5.5, why wouldn't I double down when the line moved against me to -4? I know a lot of people are thinking UTSA will have a home-field advantage, I'm willing to bet the crowd is 50/50.

Right now I have nothing on the Sunday or Monday games, but that might change if I get a line move that I like. Currently I'm leaning LSU. I might pull the trigger at -3, but would be happier with -2.5.

I also have two season totals bets:

Wisconsin -8.5

Vanderbilt +2.5

Good luck to you however you bet.  Let's get ready to lounge, cook meat with smoke and fire and drink beer all weekend with College Football on in the background.  And we shall do this for the next 6 months.