College Football 2022: Week 1 Recap (Hint: It's BAD)

 "I haven't seen an ass whipping that bad since someone put a banana down my pants and turned a monkey loose" - Uncle Eddie.

After a hot start, 2-0, with both West Virginia and Central Michigan (just) covering as underdogs, things started to unravel on Friday (Temple) and fell fully to shit on Saturday. 

I still don't think Nevada-Reno is any good, but man Texas State is awful. Boise State should have beaten Oregon State, but looked sloppy, and Houston, ah Houston.  What in the heck were you doing? Even SDSU blew it against Arizona, while breaking in their new stadium, on National TV.

I did salvage a little thanks to Coastal Carolina covering, and then a little more with a couple of smallish live bets, but it was not good.

Then came the LSU debacle, and a (needlessly tight) Clemson/Georgia Tech under (51.5 the total finished at 51) which looked for all of the world as if it was going to breeze in easy.  This, is why I frequently do NOT bet unders.  Fortunately I had to be up at 4:30AM to go to work the next day so I went to bed at the half and spared myself the sweat.

The good news is that there is a lot of season left to go, and many more opportunities to climb back out of this little hole that I've dug. 

The key is to not panic. Have faith in your system and your numbers. Don't overreact to week 1, but just tweak, and continue to tweak the model to filter our possible noise and correct errors. At least now we have some actual game data to consider.

Look, you're going to see a LOT of data from touts saying how well they did last weekend, and that this means you should buy their packages and basically give them your money. Don't buy it.  The way things are going you should have just faded me.

But, and this is important, I've had losing weekends before, and I'll have them again.  I've already jumped on 8 plays for next weekend early and I'm looking at one more, if my book will ever post the damn game.

Sports betting is fun, and it's work, but mostly fun. Bet within your means and we'll all be just fine.