Do you remember, way back (OK, around 5-6 weeks ago) at the beginning of the season when I said that all of these early season Top 25 polls are pretty much useless?
Today we give you the 3rd Number 1 team in all the land in three weeks. Welcome to the Party Alabama. Long may you reign (until the next game of the season, of the month, of the week that is). That said, at this point, I would argue that Alabama does have the best win of the season to date and has been adjusted to number one in my power rankings, but that doesn't mean that any of that matters at this point. What IS going to matter are the CFP Committee rankings, and even then those are worthless until the last poll, which, really, is the only one that matters.
That doesn't mean that the polls are not good for something.
That something being sports talk show fodder and milestones for teams like UNLV which has found itself ranked for the first time in school history. Regardless of my feelings on in-season polling, that's somewhat of a big deal for them. Congratulations Rebels.
I had also stated earlier that I thought Missouri and Ole Miss were two of the most overrated teams in the Country. I was proven correct on Ole Miss, Missouri is likely to continue to be overrated and will win this week against equally (albeit lower in the rankings) UCF which will drive them even higher.
I'm starting to buy-in to Tennessee, begrudgingly, they still haven't played a top team, but I'm not a believer in Michigan, as that USC win is looking more and more like "meh".
Another area where I think people are getting it wrong is in the Heisman race. To my mind, there are only three players who really should deserve serious discussion right now. Boise State's Jeanty, Colorado's Hunter & Alabama's Milroe. I get that the flavor of the year has been Cam Ward so far, but he's not even the best player on his own team, that honor probably goes to Reuben Bain.
We're not going to go a long way towards unwinding this mess this week either. The most telling game might be Mizzou at aTm, Kyle Field is a rough place to play but the Aggies are unranked and have issues trying to rebuild from the Jimbo Fisher error. BYU will get a huge test at home versus Arizona. The Wildcats can be dangerous, although inconsistent on offense with QB Fifita but they have been inconsistent this year on both sides of the ball. Ohio State seems to have a speed advantage over Iowa but the Hawkeyes have actually been.....decent? on offense this year. I kind of lean over in that one.
From a betting angle I'm really liking UNLv (-6.5) over Syracuse. What the Rebels looked like last week against a solid Fresno State team was impressive.
I'm also a fan of some undogs this week. Some to cover, some to win outright.
Michigan State +24 vs. Oregon. Look, they held in there for a bit at Ohio State and Oregon is NO Ohio State.
Missouri (ML) @ aTm. I've said above, Kyle Field is a tough place to play. I think Mizzou is that much better than Aggie.
North Carolina (ML) @ Pitt The Tarheels have been one of the most snake-bitten teams in college football this season, and it feels like this on is the one that Mack Brown should hang it up. That said, my numbers have a pretty good lean toward North Carolina and I just feel like the old guy has one more upset left in him.
Army (-11.5) vs. Tulsa. This one is pretty simple. My numbers have Army by 17 here. Army is good, Tulsa is not. Sometimes you just have to trust your numbers and don't overthink it.
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State (u65.5). Neither offense has been even all that good this season and my numbers have this at around 56.5. I just can't see an offensive explosion here.
Florida (ML) vs. UCF. The Gator faithful are just about to run Billy Napier out of town. UCF came into the season with a lot of buzz but the "quality" wins they have had (Houston, TCU) are feeling less and less quality as the weeks drag on. The Knights loss to Colorado was ugly as they got boat-raced out of the Bounce House (and even let Colorado run the ball successfully, which is almost unpossible if you're a good defensive team. I think Florida's young QB looks better This line opened at -1.5 Gators at home, which I thought was about right. when it switched to UCF -2.5 I jumped on Gators ML.
And finally....
Michigan (ML) vs. Washington. I know, I know, I know. I have a rule against betting on teams I root for. This one is a pure analytics play. I have Michigan as being much better than Washington. That Michigan is an underdog makes zero sense based on what I'm seeing. The Wolverines with Orji in at QB have been much better than when he's on the bench. I had to take a little shot. Since I have broken my unwritten rule though you should probably fade this bet since I'm almost guaranteeing they are going to lose.
The Country the Missus has chosen for our College Football Cooking Spectacular is Germany. I'm planning on Beer Broiled Brats, a Gluten free Schnitzel and all the gluten free beer and Schnapps she can drink.
Have fund this weekend. Two, pretty good, small school games tonight and a full 5 games on Friday.
Thursday:
Texas State @ Troy - 6:00PM CDT (ESPNU)
Sam Houston @ UTEP - 8:00PM CDT (CBS Sports Network)
Friday:
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State - 6:00PM CDT (CBS Sports Network)
New Hampshire @ Harvard - 6:00PM CDT (ESPN+ ONLY)
Houston @ TCU - 6:30PM CDT (ESPN)
Michigan State @ Oregon*** 8:00PM CDT (Fox)
Syracuse @ UNLV*** - 8:00PM CDT (FS1)
*** I have action on these games.
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