As I write this we're about 5 days away from the world gathering in Russia to determine which nation is best at kicking a ball around the pitch inside three pipes and no one except the goalie can use their hands.
Despite the United States Men's National Team not making the big show (there have been plenty of theories about that so I'll leave it be) the countries who are sending teams promise to put on a spectacular show of athleticism and drama. Most of the big players are there (hi Italy!) and there will be plenty of Star Power. There will also (sadly) be a ton of flops and bad calls, and boorish behavior. Football is a gentlemen's game played by hooligans so they say. You'll see that on display here. Sadly.
If you haven't seen this article comparing world cup teams to college football teams you should. It's eerily accurate.
As the game play goes, I have some thoughts, and some possible places to put your hard-earned money on the futures markets should you decide to play.
Odds to win the 2018 World CUP
Brazil 9/2 - Pass. Supremely talented, won't get over the hump here.
Germany 19/4 - Pass. Winning back to back almost never happens
Spain 6/1 - Too old, not enough young talent to compete with top teams.
France 13/2 - No way, did you see their friendly against the USMNT?
Argentina 19/2 - I like them here. Messi is worth it.
Belgium 12/1 - Another play I kind of like. Supremely talented.
England 18/1 - Nope. You'll just be disappointed. Trust me.
Uruguay 25/1 - I like the odds, I don't like their recent form
Portugal 28/1 - Wouldn't hurt to take a shot on Ronaldo alone.
Croatia 33/1 - Solid, should advance, struggles against top teams.
Colombia 40/1 - I can make a strong case here.
Russia 50/1 - Cute, but no.
Poland 80/1 - Might advance, lose in the quarters.
Denmark 100/1 - Won't happen. Too many injuries
Mexico 100/1 - My dark horse selection here.
Switzerland 100/1 - Fun story, won't win.
Sweden 150/1 - Fee above
Senegal 150/1 - One of the more exciting teams in terms of talent
Egypt 150/1 - Mo Salah. But that's it.
Iceland 200/1 - Overbet. Pass
Serbia 200/1 - Tough out for anyone. Not a championship contender
Japan 200/1 - Tough, disciplined, lacking enough talent to truly challenge.
Nigeria 200/1 - So much talent, so poorly coached.
Peru 200/1 - Happy to be here.
Costa Rica 300/1 - Has a history of advancing, then losing in quarters.
Australia 300/1 - The Socceroos fans are better than their team.
Iran 500/1 - About 3 notches below the best.
Morocco 500/1 - Might scare a country in the group play.
South Korea 500/1 - Happy to be here
Tunisia 500/1 - No way.
Panama 1000/1 - Uh uh.
Saudi Arabia 1000/1 - I'm not sure I'd like that for their chances to advance.
My money is going on Belgium and Mexico, although I could also make a strong case for Argentina, and Portugal IF their stars play up to the top of their form. I think there's enough talent on all teams that some of the favorites might get scares in group play, and there will always be the one team that enters with tital aspirations, then botches it and goes home early (England).
As I said earlier, I honestly think Mexico has a legitimate chance to win the whole thing and I wouldn't sleep on them. They face a TOUGH test to open in Germany however, so they'll have to keep their wits about them should they get beaten badly.
I also like Colombia.
In my heart I'm rooting for Spain. I ALWAYS root for Spain even if the US is there. Now I just don't have to pretend to be a USMNT fan this time around.
Showing posts with label The Beautiful Game. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Beautiful Game. Show all posts
Monday, June 11, 2018
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
US Men's Soccer: It's time to burn it all down. #BadSports
It wasn't just that the US Men's National Team lost 2-1 to Trinidad & Tobago last night, it was the lackluster manner in which they did it.
It's that USMNT Head Coach Bruce Arena said "no excuses" and then made several.
It's that people are actually asking if appealing a Panamanian goal is viable.
It's that US Soccer still doesn't get it.
And that's the problem. If an entity rots from the head then it's time for US Soccer President Sunil Gulati to do the honorable thing and step down. In fact, he should have done so immediately after the loss.
But soccer in the US, and the world to be honest, is a clubby atmosphere at the top in most cases and little things like wins and losses only matter to the fans. Barring arrest, and sometimes not even then, the leadership in world soccer is more entrenched than both sides in WWI.
What US Men's soccer needs right now is a full house-cleaning. They need to blow the whole thing up, break up the foundation and start fresh. With all of the money, resources and talent that the US has at its disposal failing to qualify for the World Cup in a 2nd Tier qualifying group (CONCACAF is not as weak as people say, but it's certainly not top-flight) is unacceptable.
It's so bad right now that fans are griping at Mexico for not doing the US a solid. Mexico, a team that was down four years ago during qualification but found a way, a team that has firmly planted itself atop CONCACAF with no legitimate threat to it's crown.
Yes, the USA won the CONCACAF Gold Cup but that's a tournament that few take seriously outside the US. Mexico had other, bigger designs, and a plan to get there. The US has always failed to understand that thinking, incorrectly, that winning local tournaments are a big deal.
In retrospect we should have seen this coming. During qualification for the last two Olympics the US Junior Men's National Team failed. Many of the same players that couldn't get that job done are on the senior roster today. And while it's easy to blame Klinsmann or Arena for this (and they share a lot of blame) the entirety of the US Soccer system is the real culprit.
It starts with the Junior leagues, where kids are taught a clinical game by coaches who, in some cases, don't know anything more about the sport than they learned from TV or in a workshop. There are high school coaches who's only knowledge of soccer is that they have read a book. I'm not kidding. And what has US Soccer done to address this? *crickets*
Pay to play will suck up a lot of the oxygen (rightly so) but, as the linked article states, it is just a symptom of the overall disease that is US Soccer right now. But in the US we're so worried about kids earning a soccer income that we outlaw the very thing that could make us more competitive. We also do a horrid job identifying talent, another systemic problem whose poison flows down from the top.
So, we don't find the best players, we don't coach the game correctly and then we take steps to ensure that US Soccer is one of the least diverse sports available. The result?
When Major League Soccer formed a horrible decision was made. It was a decision to administer the league like the National Football League, which ignored the successful model of the rest of the world (Promotion/Relegation) and removed any incentive for the owners to consistently produce a winning product. They also decided to play on a different professional schedule than the rest of the world, which certainly hurts come qualification time.
There's also the reality that MLS is not doing a very good job developing top-flight players at the international level. All of the truly great USMNT players in the last 20 years began their careers playing overseas, before some of them came back to the MLS and stagnated.
Clearly then the rot goes from top to bottom. Sunil Gulati should be the first to go, followed by Arena, followed by several more. The entire youth system needs to be scrapped and rebuilt from the bottom up, College Soccer needs reform, as does the MLS.
The problem is, I don't think this will ever happen.
Already the excuses are being made that "The US was just 'between generations' of players and what we saw were the unfortunate results. The MLS is making money and there's no way the cabal of owners is gong to OK a system where they might have to be responsible for their poor decisions by getting shunted to the USSL for example, and Sunil Gulati will probably survive with his job.
Why? Because that's the way US Soccer is. Both US Soccer and a large portion of the media who cover it are a giant echo chamber that refuses to even listen to dissenting opinion. All of the players who act as commentators were players on the team and many are still beholden to the people in power. There is no onus to change as long as the golden goose continues to lay golden eggs, even if those eggs are getting smaller and smaller as time goes on.
There will be no meaningful change, and in four years from now the USMNT will try again, possibly with new players and a new head coach. They might even succeed this time, and might accidentally make it out of the group rounds. They'll lose in the Quarterfinals however because once there they will have to face a legitimate team.
If nothing changes that's the ceiling. What we're seeing now is the floor.
That alone should depress the hell out of you if you're a fan of the team.
On the bright side, I can start rooting for Spain from the jump in 2018.
It's that USMNT Head Coach Bruce Arena said "no excuses" and then made several.
It's that people are actually asking if appealing a Panamanian goal is viable.
It's that US Soccer still doesn't get it.
And that's the problem. If an entity rots from the head then it's time for US Soccer President Sunil Gulati to do the honorable thing and step down. In fact, he should have done so immediately after the loss.
But soccer in the US, and the world to be honest, is a clubby atmosphere at the top in most cases and little things like wins and losses only matter to the fans. Barring arrest, and sometimes not even then, the leadership in world soccer is more entrenched than both sides in WWI.
What US Men's soccer needs right now is a full house-cleaning. They need to blow the whole thing up, break up the foundation and start fresh. With all of the money, resources and talent that the US has at its disposal failing to qualify for the World Cup in a 2nd Tier qualifying group (CONCACAF is not as weak as people say, but it's certainly not top-flight) is unacceptable.
It's so bad right now that fans are griping at Mexico for not doing the US a solid. Mexico, a team that was down four years ago during qualification but found a way, a team that has firmly planted itself atop CONCACAF with no legitimate threat to it's crown.
Yes, the USA won the CONCACAF Gold Cup but that's a tournament that few take seriously outside the US. Mexico had other, bigger designs, and a plan to get there. The US has always failed to understand that thinking, incorrectly, that winning local tournaments are a big deal.
In retrospect we should have seen this coming. During qualification for the last two Olympics the US Junior Men's National Team failed. Many of the same players that couldn't get that job done are on the senior roster today. And while it's easy to blame Klinsmann or Arena for this (and they share a lot of blame) the entirety of the US Soccer system is the real culprit.
It starts with the Junior leagues, where kids are taught a clinical game by coaches who, in some cases, don't know anything more about the sport than they learned from TV or in a workshop. There are high school coaches who's only knowledge of soccer is that they have read a book. I'm not kidding. And what has US Soccer done to address this? *crickets*
Pay to play will suck up a lot of the oxygen (rightly so) but, as the linked article states, it is just a symptom of the overall disease that is US Soccer right now. But in the US we're so worried about kids earning a soccer income that we outlaw the very thing that could make us more competitive. We also do a horrid job identifying talent, another systemic problem whose poison flows down from the top.
So, we don't find the best players, we don't coach the game correctly and then we take steps to ensure that US Soccer is one of the least diverse sports available. The result?
When Major League Soccer formed a horrible decision was made. It was a decision to administer the league like the National Football League, which ignored the successful model of the rest of the world (Promotion/Relegation) and removed any incentive for the owners to consistently produce a winning product. They also decided to play on a different professional schedule than the rest of the world, which certainly hurts come qualification time.
There's also the reality that MLS is not doing a very good job developing top-flight players at the international level. All of the truly great USMNT players in the last 20 years began their careers playing overseas, before some of them came back to the MLS and stagnated.
Clearly then the rot goes from top to bottom. Sunil Gulati should be the first to go, followed by Arena, followed by several more. The entire youth system needs to be scrapped and rebuilt from the bottom up, College Soccer needs reform, as does the MLS.
The problem is, I don't think this will ever happen.
Already the excuses are being made that "The US was just 'between generations' of players and what we saw were the unfortunate results. The MLS is making money and there's no way the cabal of owners is gong to OK a system where they might have to be responsible for their poor decisions by getting shunted to the USSL for example, and Sunil Gulati will probably survive with his job.
Why? Because that's the way US Soccer is. Both US Soccer and a large portion of the media who cover it are a giant echo chamber that refuses to even listen to dissenting opinion. All of the players who act as commentators were players on the team and many are still beholden to the people in power. There is no onus to change as long as the golden goose continues to lay golden eggs, even if those eggs are getting smaller and smaller as time goes on.
There will be no meaningful change, and in four years from now the USMNT will try again, possibly with new players and a new head coach. They might even succeed this time, and might accidentally make it out of the group rounds. They'll lose in the Quarterfinals however because once there they will have to face a legitimate team.
If nothing changes that's the ceiling. What we're seeing now is the floor.
That alone should depress the hell out of you if you're a fan of the team.
On the bright side, I can start rooting for Spain from the jump in 2018.
Monday, July 6, 2015
FIFA Women's World Cup 2015: The US Women's National Team Finds a Way
In the end, Carli Lloyd's record-breaking hat-trick sucked up all of the oxygen but it was the USWNT defensive unit that should get most of the praise.
Don't get me wrong, in the final at least, Lloyd was amazing in scoring 3 goals in under 20 minutes, for the fastest hat-trick in World Cup (Men's or Women's) history and helping the US gain an insurmountable 4-0 lead over the Japanese. Her first goal was perhaps the most well designed set piece that I've seen this version of the USWNT execute and her lob-shot from around the midfield strip is already being called, by some of the more excitable US soccer pundits, as "the greatest goal in woman's soccer history".
The facts however are this: Except when they're way in front and the game is really not in doubt, it's very hard to score a goal on the USWNT. Julie Johnston (own-goal notwithstanding), Kelley O'Hara and Becky Sauerbrunn were consistently in the correct positions and, as unlikable a person in soccer that she may be, there's no doubt that Hope Solo does a good job in bailing them out on the rare occasion that things do go wrong.
Prior to this game, the USWNT only conceded one goal, against Australia, which turned out to be a better team that most experts thought they were heading into the Cup.
If anything, I underrated the US defense when I was looking at this tournament. I thought (and still think) that the current offensive line-up is overrated (outside of the Lloyd goal explosion the numbers were anemic) and I think that all of the noise (and the US driven lawsuit) about artificial turf made it appear that the team was creating built-in excuses should they not win. (Wambach was the worst offender in this case, and it's no coincidence that I felt the offense improved when she was on the bench).
Add to that mix the mess that is Hope Solo, Rapinoe's issues with yellow cards and Alex Morgan's long road back to stardom (given her injuries) and you had a mix that I felt could have been volatile if the US didn't hoist the Cup as champions.
None of that matters now, because they did win. They won in a manner that overrode all of those concerns by playing brilliant defense throughout and then finding scoring chances when it most mattered. They did a good job of hiding their weaknesses through athleticism, as has been their wont throughout the years. At some point, these advantages are going to be swallowed up as they have been on the men's side but, until that point, the US is the champs and deservedly so.
So congrats to the current version of the USWNT. You faced the best women's soccer teams the world had to offer and you came out on top. In the process you created some stars for the future in the form of Carli Lloyd and (I think) Kelley O'Hara (who is constantly on the move, in the right place at the right time and doesn't get near the credit she should).
Enjoy it ladies.
Don't get me wrong, in the final at least, Lloyd was amazing in scoring 3 goals in under 20 minutes, for the fastest hat-trick in World Cup (Men's or Women's) history and helping the US gain an insurmountable 4-0 lead over the Japanese. Her first goal was perhaps the most well designed set piece that I've seen this version of the USWNT execute and her lob-shot from around the midfield strip is already being called, by some of the more excitable US soccer pundits, as "the greatest goal in woman's soccer history".
The facts however are this: Except when they're way in front and the game is really not in doubt, it's very hard to score a goal on the USWNT. Julie Johnston (own-goal notwithstanding), Kelley O'Hara and Becky Sauerbrunn were consistently in the correct positions and, as unlikable a person in soccer that she may be, there's no doubt that Hope Solo does a good job in bailing them out on the rare occasion that things do go wrong.
Prior to this game, the USWNT only conceded one goal, against Australia, which turned out to be a better team that most experts thought they were heading into the Cup.
If anything, I underrated the US defense when I was looking at this tournament. I thought (and still think) that the current offensive line-up is overrated (outside of the Lloyd goal explosion the numbers were anemic) and I think that all of the noise (and the US driven lawsuit) about artificial turf made it appear that the team was creating built-in excuses should they not win. (Wambach was the worst offender in this case, and it's no coincidence that I felt the offense improved when she was on the bench).
Add to that mix the mess that is Hope Solo, Rapinoe's issues with yellow cards and Alex Morgan's long road back to stardom (given her injuries) and you had a mix that I felt could have been volatile if the US didn't hoist the Cup as champions.
None of that matters now, because they did win. They won in a manner that overrode all of those concerns by playing brilliant defense throughout and then finding scoring chances when it most mattered. They did a good job of hiding their weaknesses through athleticism, as has been their wont throughout the years. At some point, these advantages are going to be swallowed up as they have been on the men's side but, until that point, the US is the champs and deservedly so.
So congrats to the current version of the USWNT. You faced the best women's soccer teams the world had to offer and you came out on top. In the process you created some stars for the future in the form of Carli Lloyd and (I think) Kelley O'Hara (who is constantly on the move, in the right place at the right time and doesn't get near the credit she should).
Enjoy it ladies.
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
FIFA Women's World Cup 2015: The Downfall of US Dominance?
For several years now the US Women's National Team has been the standard bearer in terms of Women's International Football. They have not always won the World Cup, but they're more often than not in the Finals and they are always considered among the top 3 favorites to win the thing coming out of group play.
This year?
Not so much.
Yes, they won their group, despite not looking terribly impressive in all three games, and they are through to the knock-out rounds. Their defense is looking fairly solid and they have, in Wambach, Rapinoe and Morgan, three pretty good offensive options. And they have Hope Solo, who is just about the most unlikable person in the tournament but who does a very good job keeping the opponents from putting the ball in net. (Although much of the credit for that should go to defenders Johnston and Saurbrunn.)
The most important takeaway from the group play was that the US may not be in the top 3 for title contention. They may not even be in the top five.
Who would be better?
Germany, Norway and Brazil for a start. If you want to expand that list you could include Japan and possibly (but not likely) Colombia who have been a pleasant surprise so far.
All of this doesn't mean that the US doesn't have a chance to win. They do because they still have talent at every position and a handful of players who are among the best at their position.
But they also have holes. And an offensive attack that's proving to be less creative and dangerous every game.
At this point my pick for the Finals is Japan and Germany, with Germany getting the title to pull off the Men's/Women's double.
Right now, the way the USWNT is playing, I don't think a match up with either team would be particularly close.
This year?
Not so much.
Yes, they won their group, despite not looking terribly impressive in all three games, and they are through to the knock-out rounds. Their defense is looking fairly solid and they have, in Wambach, Rapinoe and Morgan, three pretty good offensive options. And they have Hope Solo, who is just about the most unlikable person in the tournament but who does a very good job keeping the opponents from putting the ball in net. (Although much of the credit for that should go to defenders Johnston and Saurbrunn.)
The most important takeaway from the group play was that the US may not be in the top 3 for title contention. They may not even be in the top five.
Who would be better?
Germany, Norway and Brazil for a start. If you want to expand that list you could include Japan and possibly (but not likely) Colombia who have been a pleasant surprise so far.
All of this doesn't mean that the US doesn't have a chance to win. They do because they still have talent at every position and a handful of players who are among the best at their position.
But they also have holes. And an offensive attack that's proving to be less creative and dangerous every game.
At this point my pick for the Finals is Japan and Germany, with Germany getting the title to pull off the Men's/Women's double.
Right now, the way the USWNT is playing, I don't think a match up with either team would be particularly close.
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Soccer at NRG: A bad field, a bad crowd, a bad report.
Last night Italian Serie A power AC Milan beat Mexican League stalwart Chivas 3-0 in a game that will be remembered more for horrible turf and turnout than it will be remembered for good play. In fitting with the horrible conditions and crowd, the Chron's soccer beat writer mailed one in when reviewing the game:
AC Milan's 3-0 win over Chivas marred by poor field conditions, Jose de Jesus Ortiz, Chron.com
Not mentioned in the article is the fact that, despite the horrible field conditions, Balotelli was awesome, scoring two goals and proving too much for the CONCACAF fueled Chivas de Guadalajara to handle.
How bad was the field?
That bad.
In fact, it was an embarrassment to the folks that run NRG. The stadium was also dumpy looking on TV, with all of the bunting and padding removed the stadium more closely resembles a bomb-shelter. Add to this the fact that it was 2/3 empty and you have a failure on a massive scale. Why there wasn't an effort to play this game at the Dynamo/Dash stadium (Compass Bank Stadium) I'll never understand.
As is his wont, Ortiz doubles down on being incorrect by throwing in this nugget:
Houston soccer fans are NOT sophisticated. They're just about on par with the fans in Portland who were chanting "USA!" as a multi-national group of "all-stars" eeked out a 2-1 win over Bayern Munich. That's right, the best and brightest of the entire American professional LEAGUE struggled to beat one TEAM from the Bundesligua.
And fans chanted USA! to a group of players that included representatives from Europe, South America, the Caribbean, Canada and Nigeria. American soccer fans, as passionate as they may be, are NOT sophisticated. These are people who think that blocks of four behind the ball is somehow less defensive of a set up than a flat five or six. (Seriously, I had someone argue that with me on Twitter)
Not that it's the Houston fans who were at fault here. The real problem was the promoters: Texas Lone Star Sports & Entertainment and SNG-NRG Park. Both of these companies mailed it in to a degree that there was no advertisement to speak of, and almost no-one knew that AC Milan would be in town.
Ortiz, mysteriously, blames AC Milan for this. Now, it is his M.O. to prop up the Mexican Leagues as Gods among men, so you really shouldn't expect anything different here. Fortunately, you don't get anything different. What you get is a fluff quote from Chivas suggesting that they "heart Houston" and then a bunch of conjecture that AC Milan just blew Houston off. Given that we don't know how the promoters (who got everything else wrong) drew up the itinerary this is a preposterous statement to make. It's opining on the part of the reporter and any decent editor would have sent it back for re-writing.
For a city that yearns to be "world class" I'm never amazed when Houston is frequently less than so. Whether it's poorly planned or executed events or the sub-par media coverage of them, the norm in Houston is to do things half-assed and then blame others for the failure.
AC Milan's 3-0 win over Chivas marred by poor field conditions, Jose de Jesus Ortiz, Chron.com
You don't risk ruining your Ferrari on a country road in Porter, and that's exactly the dilemma AC Milan and Chivas faced while contemplating whether to play their friendly match at the Texans' stadium.
Mario Balotelli and AC Milan ultimately took the pitch and beat Chivas 3-0 before a crowd of 14,871, the smallest attendance figure for an international match at NRG Stadium.
Not mentioned in the article is the fact that, despite the horrible field conditions, Balotelli was awesome, scoring two goals and proving too much for the CONCACAF fueled Chivas de Guadalajara to handle.
How bad was the field?
That bad.
In fact, it was an embarrassment to the folks that run NRG. The stadium was also dumpy looking on TV, with all of the bunting and padding removed the stadium more closely resembles a bomb-shelter. Add to this the fact that it was 2/3 empty and you have a failure on a massive scale. Why there wasn't an effort to play this game at the Dynamo/Dash stadium (Compass Bank Stadium) I'll never understand.
As is his wont, Ortiz doubles down on being incorrect by throwing in this nugget:
Houston soccer fans are sophisticated. AC Milan took Houston fans for granted. Subsequently, the promoters got what they deserved, a crowd worthy of their horrendous pitch.
Houston soccer fans are NOT sophisticated. They're just about on par with the fans in Portland who were chanting "USA!" as a multi-national group of "all-stars" eeked out a 2-1 win over Bayern Munich. That's right, the best and brightest of the entire American professional LEAGUE struggled to beat one TEAM from the Bundesligua.
And fans chanted USA! to a group of players that included representatives from Europe, South America, the Caribbean, Canada and Nigeria. American soccer fans, as passionate as they may be, are NOT sophisticated. These are people who think that blocks of four behind the ball is somehow less defensive of a set up than a flat five or six. (Seriously, I had someone argue that with me on Twitter)
Not that it's the Houston fans who were at fault here. The real problem was the promoters: Texas Lone Star Sports & Entertainment and SNG-NRG Park. Both of these companies mailed it in to a degree that there was no advertisement to speak of, and almost no-one knew that AC Milan would be in town.
Ortiz, mysteriously, blames AC Milan for this. Now, it is his M.O. to prop up the Mexican Leagues as Gods among men, so you really shouldn't expect anything different here. Fortunately, you don't get anything different. What you get is a fluff quote from Chivas suggesting that they "heart Houston" and then a bunch of conjecture that AC Milan just blew Houston off. Given that we don't know how the promoters (who got everything else wrong) drew up the itinerary this is a preposterous statement to make. It's opining on the part of the reporter and any decent editor would have sent it back for re-writing.
For a city that yearns to be "world class" I'm never amazed when Houston is frequently less than so. Whether it's poorly planned or executed events or the sub-par media coverage of them, the norm in Houston is to do things half-assed and then blame others for the failure.
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