No Conference in College Football took advantage of the B(C)S than the SEC. Not only did they win 9 of the 16 B(C)S Championships, but they won 7 in a row and parlayed that into a lucrative partnership with ESPN to create the SEC Network which is launching on August 14th.
These are the salad days for the SEC. They have the best talent, the best coaching and the best facilities across the board. They make policy in college football and they (along with the ACC) will drive the sport either forward or backward as they please.
That said, I don't think they will be as dominant in the new 4-team playoff system for a couple of reasons: One, part of their dominance was due to the fact that both Urban Meyer and Nick Saban are the best in the business when given a lot of lead-time to prepare. 2. These things run in cycles, and expansion/realignment is going to have a big effect on who has power going forward.
For 2014/2015 the SEC will consist of 14 teams divided equally into two divisions. (East and West). I'll get to my picks shortly but first, a bold prediction:
Alabama will not receive an invitation to the 2014/2015 College Football Playoff.
East:
1. South Carolina - Steve Spurrier (The Old Ball Coach) is having fun in SC. He's also got one of the better teams he's ever had at his disposal this year.
2. Florida - They get this spot, sort-of, by default. The East is not very strong this year.
3. Georgia - I expect the "fire Mark Richt" movement to pick up some steam. Georgia is an against-the-SC-grain pick for the top spot but I think they're replacing too much.
4. Missouri - A good coach in Gary Pinkel, some decent talent. Overmatched against the bigger schools.
5. Tennessee - Showed some signs of life last year. Will take a small step back this year but could be a team on the rise soon.
6. Kentucky - Is it basketball season yet?
7. Vanderbilt - Lost their coach and all of their NFL quality players. Starting the next 5-10 year rebuilding plan. Does wonders for conference academic ratings however.
West
1a. Alabama
1b. Auburn
1c. LSU
Yes, I realize this is a cop-out, but all three of these teams are filling huge holes left by the NFL draft. It will be impossible to get a real feel until some actual games are played.
4. Ole Miss - At some point all of that talent has to pay off.
5. Texas A&M - As much as people are obsessing over the loss of Johnny Manziel, I actually think that QB is one position where the Aggies are OK. What they had better do is learn how to play defense. The jury is still out on whether or not HC Kevin Sumlin can field one.
6. Mississippi State - The Bulldogs just don't have the resources to compete consistently with the rest of the conference.
7. Arkansas - Karma I'm not a fan of Bielema as a coach. I think he rode the coattails of Alvarez after Barry retired (Alvarez was still a part of Wisconsin for Bielema to fall back on after he retired.) and I think we're seeing just how out of his depth he is.
Conference Champion: South Carolina (Receives invitation to College Football Playoff)
Other thoughts: The SEC is given the title of "best conference" but, for quite some time, this has only been true at the very top. The fact is the bottom 10 of this 14-team conference are not very strong. This has been a hidden problem for the SEC for a while now, something that they've taken to covering up with hilariously weak OOC scheduling.
This year there are so many questions surrounding the top teams that I don't see a possible scenario (as some are suggesting) that they receive a 2nd playoff berth. As a matter of fact, I'm fairly confident they only get one, and might even lose in the first round depending on seeding.
One thing in their favor: The rankings people (who's thoughts will be taken into consideration by the committee) love them some SEC regardless of how many flaws it appears they have.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Soccer at NRG: A bad field, a bad crowd, a bad report.
Last night Italian Serie A power AC Milan beat Mexican League stalwart Chivas 3-0 in a game that will be remembered more for horrible turf and turnout than it will be remembered for good play. In fitting with the horrible conditions and crowd, the Chron's soccer beat writer mailed one in when reviewing the game:
AC Milan's 3-0 win over Chivas marred by poor field conditions, Jose de Jesus Ortiz, Chron.com
Not mentioned in the article is the fact that, despite the horrible field conditions, Balotelli was awesome, scoring two goals and proving too much for the CONCACAF fueled Chivas de Guadalajara to handle.
How bad was the field?
That bad.
In fact, it was an embarrassment to the folks that run NRG. The stadium was also dumpy looking on TV, with all of the bunting and padding removed the stadium more closely resembles a bomb-shelter. Add to this the fact that it was 2/3 empty and you have a failure on a massive scale. Why there wasn't an effort to play this game at the Dynamo/Dash stadium (Compass Bank Stadium) I'll never understand.
As is his wont, Ortiz doubles down on being incorrect by throwing in this nugget:
Houston soccer fans are NOT sophisticated. They're just about on par with the fans in Portland who were chanting "USA!" as a multi-national group of "all-stars" eeked out a 2-1 win over Bayern Munich. That's right, the best and brightest of the entire American professional LEAGUE struggled to beat one TEAM from the Bundesligua.
And fans chanted USA! to a group of players that included representatives from Europe, South America, the Caribbean, Canada and Nigeria. American soccer fans, as passionate as they may be, are NOT sophisticated. These are people who think that blocks of four behind the ball is somehow less defensive of a set up than a flat five or six. (Seriously, I had someone argue that with me on Twitter)
Not that it's the Houston fans who were at fault here. The real problem was the promoters: Texas Lone Star Sports & Entertainment and SNG-NRG Park. Both of these companies mailed it in to a degree that there was no advertisement to speak of, and almost no-one knew that AC Milan would be in town.
Ortiz, mysteriously, blames AC Milan for this. Now, it is his M.O. to prop up the Mexican Leagues as Gods among men, so you really shouldn't expect anything different here. Fortunately, you don't get anything different. What you get is a fluff quote from Chivas suggesting that they "heart Houston" and then a bunch of conjecture that AC Milan just blew Houston off. Given that we don't know how the promoters (who got everything else wrong) drew up the itinerary this is a preposterous statement to make. It's opining on the part of the reporter and any decent editor would have sent it back for re-writing.
For a city that yearns to be "world class" I'm never amazed when Houston is frequently less than so. Whether it's poorly planned or executed events or the sub-par media coverage of them, the norm in Houston is to do things half-assed and then blame others for the failure.
AC Milan's 3-0 win over Chivas marred by poor field conditions, Jose de Jesus Ortiz, Chron.com
You don't risk ruining your Ferrari on a country road in Porter, and that's exactly the dilemma AC Milan and Chivas faced while contemplating whether to play their friendly match at the Texans' stadium.
Mario Balotelli and AC Milan ultimately took the pitch and beat Chivas 3-0 before a crowd of 14,871, the smallest attendance figure for an international match at NRG Stadium.
Not mentioned in the article is the fact that, despite the horrible field conditions, Balotelli was awesome, scoring two goals and proving too much for the CONCACAF fueled Chivas de Guadalajara to handle.
How bad was the field?
That bad.
In fact, it was an embarrassment to the folks that run NRG. The stadium was also dumpy looking on TV, with all of the bunting and padding removed the stadium more closely resembles a bomb-shelter. Add to this the fact that it was 2/3 empty and you have a failure on a massive scale. Why there wasn't an effort to play this game at the Dynamo/Dash stadium (Compass Bank Stadium) I'll never understand.
As is his wont, Ortiz doubles down on being incorrect by throwing in this nugget:
Houston soccer fans are sophisticated. AC Milan took Houston fans for granted. Subsequently, the promoters got what they deserved, a crowd worthy of their horrendous pitch.
Houston soccer fans are NOT sophisticated. They're just about on par with the fans in Portland who were chanting "USA!" as a multi-national group of "all-stars" eeked out a 2-1 win over Bayern Munich. That's right, the best and brightest of the entire American professional LEAGUE struggled to beat one TEAM from the Bundesligua.
And fans chanted USA! to a group of players that included representatives from Europe, South America, the Caribbean, Canada and Nigeria. American soccer fans, as passionate as they may be, are NOT sophisticated. These are people who think that blocks of four behind the ball is somehow less defensive of a set up than a flat five or six. (Seriously, I had someone argue that with me on Twitter)
Not that it's the Houston fans who were at fault here. The real problem was the promoters: Texas Lone Star Sports & Entertainment and SNG-NRG Park. Both of these companies mailed it in to a degree that there was no advertisement to speak of, and almost no-one knew that AC Milan would be in town.
Ortiz, mysteriously, blames AC Milan for this. Now, it is his M.O. to prop up the Mexican Leagues as Gods among men, so you really shouldn't expect anything different here. Fortunately, you don't get anything different. What you get is a fluff quote from Chivas suggesting that they "heart Houston" and then a bunch of conjecture that AC Milan just blew Houston off. Given that we don't know how the promoters (who got everything else wrong) drew up the itinerary this is a preposterous statement to make. It's opining on the part of the reporter and any decent editor would have sent it back for re-writing.
For a city that yearns to be "world class" I'm never amazed when Houston is frequently less than so. Whether it's poorly planned or executed events or the sub-par media coverage of them, the norm in Houston is to do things half-assed and then blame others for the failure.
College Football: The Pac-12 is a lot of fun, too bad many in America don't pay much attention.
When it comes to pure quality of football, the brand employed by the current Pac-12 Conference could stand at the top of the heap. This doesn't mean that I consider them the top conference however (that distinction still falls in the lap of the SEC) but there can be little doubt that the Pac-12 is rising rather than falling of late, and the prognosis is positive.
Unlike the Big Twen and the B1G, the Pac-12 is mathematically sound. They also have two teams that I think might have legitimate shots at the National Championship this year. First things first, however, the eventual winner of this conference is going to have to run a gauntlet that is very intimidating.
In 2014 the Pac-12 will have 14 teams who are divided into both the North and South divisions. Unlike other conferences it's likely that the eventual champions of the each division might be the two best teams in the conference as both are strong. I also expect the year's Heisman Trophy winner to come out of this conference in the form of either Brett Hundley or Marcus Mariota.
Predictions:
North
1. Oregon - Even without Chip Kelly this Oregon team is still loaded with speed and talent. Mariota is the best QB to come through this program ever.
2. Stanford - They have the best coach in the league, and a ton of physical talent. Not as fast as Oregon but they out-muscle faster teams on a regular basis.
3. Washington - If there's a dark-horse candidate to win the division, it's the Huskies.
4. Oregon State - The Beavers are lacking talent in several key positions on both sides of the ball.
5. Washington State - Coach Leach will keep it interesting, but still needs to bring in his type of talent. Playing some defense would also help.
6. California - It's a school that cares more for it's liberal reputation than fielding a winning team. At the bottom is where they are going to reside for years to come given their lack of resources.
South
1. UCLA - Might be the best team in the Conference. At least, I think so.
2. USC - Recovering from the Layne Kiffin error. Still has a ton of tradition and talent to fall back on.
3. Arizona State - Yes, Coach Graham is a pompous jerk, but he can coach and they do have talent.
4. Arizona - Last year proved that Rich Rod can still coach, this year will be an even tougher challenge as he tries to find a QB and starting RB.
5. Utah - The Utes are struggling to find their role within the conference. One wonders if they are going to be able to seriously compete with the other teams at a recruiting level?
6. Colorado - The Buffalos are a mess. Contenders with Purdue, Virginia and Arkansas for worst team in major college football.
Conference Champion: UCLA (Receives invitation to College Football Playoff)
Besides determining the PAC-12 Champion I think the conference championship will go a long way to determining who wins the Heisman Trophy. IF, voters are smart and hold their ballots until the end of this game I think the winner is the QB who leads his team to victory. Although I think Mariota is the better talent (and NFL prospect) and think that Hundley has a better team around him.
Other thoughts: Unfortunately for the PAC-12, most of their games are played when the East Coast media talking-heads are tucked comfortably in their beds. This has caused them to fly a little bit under the national radar and has led almost everyone to be slow in realizing the conferences resurgence of late. I've been tooting the PAC-12 horn for about 5 years now. I subscribe to the PAC-12 Network so I can watch their games late Saturday night and they are among the most enjoyable of the day.
This conference is another one that I think will be key in the reorganization of college football. Currently at 12, I believe they eventually want to expand to 16 and will take those four teams from the current Big Twen. I've a feeling they would like to do this after the Longhorn Network deal runs out but their hand might be forced by either the SEC or ACC before that. It's known that they covet Oklahoma and are willing to accept OSU as part of the deal. They (and any conference really) would be silly to not want UT-Austin, especially now that DeLoss Dodds and his ego are out of the way.
Unlike the Big Twen and the B1G, the Pac-12 is mathematically sound. They also have two teams that I think might have legitimate shots at the National Championship this year. First things first, however, the eventual winner of this conference is going to have to run a gauntlet that is very intimidating.
In 2014 the Pac-12 will have 14 teams who are divided into both the North and South divisions. Unlike other conferences it's likely that the eventual champions of the each division might be the two best teams in the conference as both are strong. I also expect the year's Heisman Trophy winner to come out of this conference in the form of either Brett Hundley or Marcus Mariota.
Predictions:
North
1. Oregon - Even without Chip Kelly this Oregon team is still loaded with speed and talent. Mariota is the best QB to come through this program ever.
2. Stanford - They have the best coach in the league, and a ton of physical talent. Not as fast as Oregon but they out-muscle faster teams on a regular basis.
3. Washington - If there's a dark-horse candidate to win the division, it's the Huskies.
4. Oregon State - The Beavers are lacking talent in several key positions on both sides of the ball.
5. Washington State - Coach Leach will keep it interesting, but still needs to bring in his type of talent. Playing some defense would also help.
6. California - It's a school that cares more for it's liberal reputation than fielding a winning team. At the bottom is where they are going to reside for years to come given their lack of resources.
South
1. UCLA - Might be the best team in the Conference. At least, I think so.
2. USC - Recovering from the Layne Kiffin error. Still has a ton of tradition and talent to fall back on.
3. Arizona State - Yes, Coach Graham is a pompous jerk, but he can coach and they do have talent.
4. Arizona - Last year proved that Rich Rod can still coach, this year will be an even tougher challenge as he tries to find a QB and starting RB.
5. Utah - The Utes are struggling to find their role within the conference. One wonders if they are going to be able to seriously compete with the other teams at a recruiting level?
6. Colorado - The Buffalos are a mess. Contenders with Purdue, Virginia and Arkansas for worst team in major college football.
Conference Champion: UCLA (Receives invitation to College Football Playoff)
Besides determining the PAC-12 Champion I think the conference championship will go a long way to determining who wins the Heisman Trophy. IF, voters are smart and hold their ballots until the end of this game I think the winner is the QB who leads his team to victory. Although I think Mariota is the better talent (and NFL prospect) and think that Hundley has a better team around him.
Other thoughts: Unfortunately for the PAC-12, most of their games are played when the East Coast media talking-heads are tucked comfortably in their beds. This has caused them to fly a little bit under the national radar and has led almost everyone to be slow in realizing the conferences resurgence of late. I've been tooting the PAC-12 horn for about 5 years now. I subscribe to the PAC-12 Network so I can watch their games late Saturday night and they are among the most enjoyable of the day.
This conference is another one that I think will be key in the reorganization of college football. Currently at 12, I believe they eventually want to expand to 16 and will take those four teams from the current Big Twen. I've a feeling they would like to do this after the Longhorn Network deal runs out but their hand might be forced by either the SEC or ACC before that. It's known that they covet Oklahoma and are willing to accept OSU as part of the deal. They (and any conference really) would be silly to not want UT-Austin, especially now that DeLoss Dodds and his ego are out of the way.
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
Houston Texans: Making so much out of such a little thing.
Yesterday the Houston Texans released their first depth chart of the 2014 pre-season to which the Chron's fading sports team responded with a chub, listing the starters sans position and a loosely related slide-show. The Houston Press (Houston's former alt-weekly, current livejournal) provided us with something from Jeff Balke that, sort of, provides analysis.
So while the former newspaper of record is wandering around the perimeter of "do as little as possible" (probably due to having little access to the current regime), the alt-media is running stream-of-consciousness musings and talk radio is busy obsessing over the jerkiness of Arian Foster the public is left to self-analyze in the chron.comments:
Offensive Line is a worry: The Texans O-line is weak across the board, with the exception of Duane Brown, and there is little experienced depth should injuries occur. Given that this is the NFL where injuries almost always occur, one has to worry about the health of the QB's trying to operate behind that line.
Running back is a question mark: The easy line is "wait until Arian Foster gets healthy". The reality is that Arian is an overused RB who is coming off major back surgery. Furthermore, the depth behind Arian is suspect, at best. Andre Brown is a journeyman, Dennis Johnson has shown flashes of competency, but only flashes and Alfred Blue is a rookie who was dogged by health issues throughout his college career. Then there's the problem (not talked about much) that Foster is a stretch back whose fit into a power running system is questionable, at best.
Linebacker is a concern: The mantra that Cushing is coming back might, or might not, be a jolt of energy for this LB corps. Right now Cushing is on the PUP, coming off his 2nd major, season-ending, injury in consecutive years. Without Cushing the ILB position is of concern. In the 3-4 these ILB's are required to make plays and fill gaps created by DL's who plug holes and occupy blockers. At some time they will be asked to make an individual play. We will see on Saturday if the LB unit, without Cushing, has the athletic ability to make these plays.
The defensive backfield is a question mark: Maybe, it can be said that an increased pass rush will help the DB's in coverage. Maybe DJ Swearinger can control his tendency to draw personal fouls. Possibly, Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson become better cover corners with QB's having less time to sit in the pocket. The problem is we just don't know and the track record for the group is one of regression.
The "roster full of talent" lie is being exposed: Perhaps the biggest problem facing the Texans is that, by appearances, the roster is not a talent-filled cornucopia that's been underutilized but rather a roster reflecting the talent level of a team that went 2-14 last season. For the Texans to make much progress there are a LOT of things that have to fall 100% right. All of the questions above have to be answered in the affirmative. Then there's the issue of Rick Smith's dodgy draft record which is finally drawing attention among the talkers in sports talk radio.
By continually missing in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft and through his seeming inability to understand the basics of cap management, GM Rick Smith has created a talent vacuum in the 2nd and 3rd strings on this team. I think, but don't know, that Bill O'Brien has a sound plan in place for the team. What I am unsure of, at this point, is whether or not he has the players to execute that plan at a level that wins games.
One thing we forget is that the view around the league that the "AFC South is weak" is, in part, because of the Texans and not in spite of them. As much as the Texans look at teams such as Jacksonville and Tennessee in terms of season wins the same thing applies in reverse. Right or wrong teams are looking at the Texans as places on their schedule where getting a W is possible.
When it comes to front-line talent in the NFL the Texans have JJ Watt, Duane Brown, an injured Brian Cushing and a whole mess of maybe. Maybe Jerrell Powe is a starting-quality NT, maybe Clowney is healthy and plays up to a high level, maybe Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph improve, maybe the Safety play is better this year, maybe the LB corps can hold it together and Cushing returns, Maybe DeAndre Hopkins and DeVier Posey continue their progression and maybe The Fitz can become a game manager with a stronger arm than Matt Schaub.
Or maybe none of this happens and the team struggles to get to 4 wins.
So while the former newspaper of record is wandering around the perimeter of "do as little as possible" (probably due to having little access to the current regime), the alt-media is running stream-of-consciousness musings and talk radio is busy obsessing over the jerkiness of Arian Foster the public is left to self-analyze in the chron.comments:
Whitney Mercilus was a first round pick and can't even make the starting team his third year in the league.While the Mercilus "demotion" to 2nd string is a worry, there are other points regarding the Texans' first depth chart that should be made by those who are paid to make such points, but are not.
Offensive Line is a worry: The Texans O-line is weak across the board, with the exception of Duane Brown, and there is little experienced depth should injuries occur. Given that this is the NFL where injuries almost always occur, one has to worry about the health of the QB's trying to operate behind that line.
Running back is a question mark: The easy line is "wait until Arian Foster gets healthy". The reality is that Arian is an overused RB who is coming off major back surgery. Furthermore, the depth behind Arian is suspect, at best. Andre Brown is a journeyman, Dennis Johnson has shown flashes of competency, but only flashes and Alfred Blue is a rookie who was dogged by health issues throughout his college career. Then there's the problem (not talked about much) that Foster is a stretch back whose fit into a power running system is questionable, at best.
Linebacker is a concern: The mantra that Cushing is coming back might, or might not, be a jolt of energy for this LB corps. Right now Cushing is on the PUP, coming off his 2nd major, season-ending, injury in consecutive years. Without Cushing the ILB position is of concern. In the 3-4 these ILB's are required to make plays and fill gaps created by DL's who plug holes and occupy blockers. At some time they will be asked to make an individual play. We will see on Saturday if the LB unit, without Cushing, has the athletic ability to make these plays.
The defensive backfield is a question mark: Maybe, it can be said that an increased pass rush will help the DB's in coverage. Maybe DJ Swearinger can control his tendency to draw personal fouls. Possibly, Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson become better cover corners with QB's having less time to sit in the pocket. The problem is we just don't know and the track record for the group is one of regression.
The "roster full of talent" lie is being exposed: Perhaps the biggest problem facing the Texans is that, by appearances, the roster is not a talent-filled cornucopia that's been underutilized but rather a roster reflecting the talent level of a team that went 2-14 last season. For the Texans to make much progress there are a LOT of things that have to fall 100% right. All of the questions above have to be answered in the affirmative. Then there's the issue of Rick Smith's dodgy draft record which is finally drawing attention among the talkers in sports talk radio.
By continually missing in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft and through his seeming inability to understand the basics of cap management, GM Rick Smith has created a talent vacuum in the 2nd and 3rd strings on this team. I think, but don't know, that Bill O'Brien has a sound plan in place for the team. What I am unsure of, at this point, is whether or not he has the players to execute that plan at a level that wins games.
One thing we forget is that the view around the league that the "AFC South is weak" is, in part, because of the Texans and not in spite of them. As much as the Texans look at teams such as Jacksonville and Tennessee in terms of season wins the same thing applies in reverse. Right or wrong teams are looking at the Texans as places on their schedule where getting a W is possible.
When it comes to front-line talent in the NFL the Texans have JJ Watt, Duane Brown, an injured Brian Cushing and a whole mess of maybe. Maybe Jerrell Powe is a starting-quality NT, maybe Clowney is healthy and plays up to a high level, maybe Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph improve, maybe the Safety play is better this year, maybe the LB corps can hold it together and Cushing returns, Maybe DeAndre Hopkins and DeVier Posey continue their progression and maybe The Fitz can become a game manager with a stronger arm than Matt Schaub.
Or maybe none of this happens and the team struggles to get to 4 wins.
College Football: The ACC on the rise.
It's good to be the King. Ask Florida State who, coming into the season, has all of the returning National Championship buzz surrounding it and a team leader, in Quarterback Jameis Winston, who is a Million dollar talent paired with a two-cent head. (remind you of anyone?)
Divided into two Divisions (the Coastal and the Atlantic) the ACC is slowly but surely jumping up the ranks, past the diminished Big Twen and even ahead of the increasingly inaccurate Big 10 into 3rd place in my conference rankings.
Handicapping the Atlantic Division is fairly easy, the Coastal? Not so much.
So, without further ado:
Atlantic
1. Florida State - Hard to pick against them.
2. Clemson - Lost a lot, and they have a cheerleader for a coach, but they have a lot of talent in reserve.
3. Louisville - There is not a better conference/program fit among the new arrivals this year than this one. Could surprise.
4. NC State - So middle of the pack it's ridiculous.
5. Boston College - Rebuilding. This is not a school that can just re-load.
6. Syracuse - Unlike Louisville, there is not a worse fit among the new arrivals this year than this one. Could regret this realignment for years to come.
7. Wake Forest - Better enjoy last year's memories. Could be a while before they climb that mountain again.
Coastal
1. Duke - I see no reason why they won't repeat last year's run. Might even be more competitive with Florida State in the Championship game.
2. Miami - At some point, all of that talent has to play up to potential right?
3. Virginia Tech - I am a Frank Beamer fan but, his inability to field a functioning offense is troubling.
4. North Carolina - Always seems to pull a surprise in conference play.
5. Georgia Tech - Don't have the horses to contend in this conference.
6. Pitt - There are some who are predicting Pitt could win the division. All this proves is that some football "experts" aren't.
7. Virginia - Battling Purdue for worst program in major college football right now.
Conference Champion: Florida State (Receives invitation to College Football Playoff)
I think we see a repeat of last year in the ACC, with Florida State beating Duke in the Dr. Pepper ACC Championship game. I also think Florida State is a shoo-in to be 1 of the 4 teams in the new playoffs barring something crazy happening.
Other thoughts: When the predicted realignment and major-shift in College football comes (What I am predicting to be 4-16 team conferences at the top level) I really believe that the ACC is going to drive the change by poaching two teams for the Big Twen. (at this point I see that as being Baylor (yes, Baylor) and possibly Kansas State. This will open the door for Tech, UT-Austin, OU and OSU to bolt for the Pac-12 which will result in the Big 10 taking a look at Iowa State and possibly West Virginia (or, if they want to remain relevant, Notre Dame) to fill their ranks. The wild-card in all of this will be the SEC. If they decide to make a run at Florida State and Clemson, then the ACC is going to have to get creative and possibly take a look at UCF or TCU to fill it's ranks. Should the latter scenario happen I would imagine the ACC will move fairly quickly to replenish and the dominoes will start falling fast. Either way I think they are the key to the entire puzzle.
Divided into two Divisions (the Coastal and the Atlantic) the ACC is slowly but surely jumping up the ranks, past the diminished Big Twen and even ahead of the increasingly inaccurate Big 10 into 3rd place in my conference rankings.
Handicapping the Atlantic Division is fairly easy, the Coastal? Not so much.
So, without further ado:
Atlantic
1. Florida State - Hard to pick against them.
2. Clemson - Lost a lot, and they have a cheerleader for a coach, but they have a lot of talent in reserve.
3. Louisville - There is not a better conference/program fit among the new arrivals this year than this one. Could surprise.
4. NC State - So middle of the pack it's ridiculous.
5. Boston College - Rebuilding. This is not a school that can just re-load.
6. Syracuse - Unlike Louisville, there is not a worse fit among the new arrivals this year than this one. Could regret this realignment for years to come.
7. Wake Forest - Better enjoy last year's memories. Could be a while before they climb that mountain again.
Coastal
1. Duke - I see no reason why they won't repeat last year's run. Might even be more competitive with Florida State in the Championship game.
2. Miami - At some point, all of that talent has to play up to potential right?
3. Virginia Tech - I am a Frank Beamer fan but, his inability to field a functioning offense is troubling.
4. North Carolina - Always seems to pull a surprise in conference play.
5. Georgia Tech - Don't have the horses to contend in this conference.
6. Pitt - There are some who are predicting Pitt could win the division. All this proves is that some football "experts" aren't.
7. Virginia - Battling Purdue for worst program in major college football right now.
Conference Champion: Florida State (Receives invitation to College Football Playoff)
I think we see a repeat of last year in the ACC, with Florida State beating Duke in the Dr. Pepper ACC Championship game. I also think Florida State is a shoo-in to be 1 of the 4 teams in the new playoffs barring something crazy happening.
Other thoughts: When the predicted realignment and major-shift in College football comes (What I am predicting to be 4-16 team conferences at the top level) I really believe that the ACC is going to drive the change by poaching two teams for the Big Twen. (at this point I see that as being Baylor (yes, Baylor) and possibly Kansas State. This will open the door for Tech, UT-Austin, OU and OSU to bolt for the Pac-12 which will result in the Big 10 taking a look at Iowa State and possibly West Virginia (or, if they want to remain relevant, Notre Dame) to fill their ranks. The wild-card in all of this will be the SEC. If they decide to make a run at Florida State and Clemson, then the ACC is going to have to get creative and possibly take a look at UCF or TCU to fill it's ranks. Should the latter scenario happen I would imagine the ACC will move fairly quickly to replenish and the dominoes will start falling fast. Either way I think they are the key to the entire puzzle.
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
College Football: The Increasingly inaccurate Big Ten's inferiority complex.
The biggest problem for the B1G, a lack of mathematics instruction notwithstanding, is that they are not the SEC. The league, once a giant and a mover and shaker in college sports, has been relegated to "me too" status as the SEC and even the ACC begin to distance themselves from the pack in collegiate athletics.
A power during the early years of football (Pre-1970's) it's now been since 2002 that the Big Ten has won a football National Championship and they really weren't relevant during the B(C)S era.
Now expanded to 14 teams, with two divisions (East and West thankfully replacing Legends and Leaders) the conference has regressed to the Big 2 and the Little 12 with Ohio State and Michigan State running rough-shod over the rest of the conference in terms of quality and National reputation.
Unfortunately, for the B1G, both of these teams are in the same division so it's highly unlikely the two best teams will meet up in the Conference Championship Game.
For 2014/2015 I'm expecting to see much of the same:
East
1. Ohio State - Possesses the most talent and a good coach in Urban Meyer. Needs to put it all together. I think they will.
2. Michigan State - As a Michigan fan this top two pains me. But Michigan State has the best coach in the league and should challenge Ohio for the championship.
3. Penn State - This is a team on the rebound. Former coach O'Brien did a great job recruiting.
4. Michigan - Yes, I'm a fan, but I also have to be realistic. Big Blue is still suffering from the Rich Rod error and Brady Hoke seems lost at the helm.
5. Maryland - Not yet ready to compete at this level.
6. Indiana - Waiting for basketball season. Good Head Coach however.
7. Rutgers - Long-term, the move to the B1G might help them. Short-term they're in over their heads.
West
1. Iowa - The West is all over the place. Number's 1-3 could win it all. I think Iowa wins via tie-breaker.
2. Wisconsin - Can still run the ball and will have a good defense. On a plus note: will be better than Arkansas....karma.
3. Nebraska - I'm not a believer in Bo Pellini. I've a feeling this is his last year coaching the Cornhuskers.
4. Minnesota - Same old, same old. Will win one they shouldn't, will lose one they shouldn't.
5. Northwestern - Always has the ability to surprise, usually finishes outside the top 3.
6. Illinois - Just a mess of a program right now.
7. Purdue - This is a program that's spiraling downward. Could be the worst team in any major conference this year.
Conference Champion: Ohio State. (Makes it into the 4-team playoff for the National Championship)
As of this writing, the B1G is a two-team league, with the winner of Michigan State/Ohio State getting the playoff nod.
Big Blue Side note: Michigan opens the season with Appalachian State at the Big House. We all remember what happened the last time out. For Brady Hoke's sake I hope it doesn't happen again.
A power during the early years of football (Pre-1970's) it's now been since 2002 that the Big Ten has won a football National Championship and they really weren't relevant during the B(C)S era.
Now expanded to 14 teams, with two divisions (East and West thankfully replacing Legends and Leaders) the conference has regressed to the Big 2 and the Little 12 with Ohio State and Michigan State running rough-shod over the rest of the conference in terms of quality and National reputation.
Unfortunately, for the B1G, both of these teams are in the same division so it's highly unlikely the two best teams will meet up in the Conference Championship Game.
For 2014/2015 I'm expecting to see much of the same:
East
1. Ohio State - Possesses the most talent and a good coach in Urban Meyer. Needs to put it all together. I think they will.
2. Michigan State - As a Michigan fan this top two pains me. But Michigan State has the best coach in the league and should challenge Ohio for the championship.
3. Penn State - This is a team on the rebound. Former coach O'Brien did a great job recruiting.
4. Michigan - Yes, I'm a fan, but I also have to be realistic. Big Blue is still suffering from the Rich Rod error and Brady Hoke seems lost at the helm.
5. Maryland - Not yet ready to compete at this level.
6. Indiana - Waiting for basketball season. Good Head Coach however.
7. Rutgers - Long-term, the move to the B1G might help them. Short-term they're in over their heads.
West
1. Iowa - The West is all over the place. Number's 1-3 could win it all. I think Iowa wins via tie-breaker.
2. Wisconsin - Can still run the ball and will have a good defense. On a plus note: will be better than Arkansas....karma.
3. Nebraska - I'm not a believer in Bo Pellini. I've a feeling this is his last year coaching the Cornhuskers.
4. Minnesota - Same old, same old. Will win one they shouldn't, will lose one they shouldn't.
5. Northwestern - Always has the ability to surprise, usually finishes outside the top 3.
6. Illinois - Just a mess of a program right now.
7. Purdue - This is a program that's spiraling downward. Could be the worst team in any major conference this year.
Conference Champion: Ohio State. (Makes it into the 4-team playoff for the National Championship)
As of this writing, the B1G is a two-team league, with the winner of Michigan State/Ohio State getting the playoff nod.
Big Blue Side note: Michigan opens the season with Appalachian State at the Big House. We all remember what happened the last time out. For Brady Hoke's sake I hope it doesn't happen again.
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