Thursday, March 4, 2010

There will be more of you voting than first imagined.

If Rasmussen is to be believed.....

(Texas Governor: 2010, Rasmussen Reports, 03/04/2010)
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Texas finds Perry leading White, the popular former mayor of Houston, by just six points, 49% to 43%. Three percent (3%) opt for some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

For those of you not keeping score that's 101%.

The important number here is the "undecided", which, assuming it is 6% (and the 'other candidate' vote is actually 2%) must go entirely the way of Bill White for him to have a chance. My guess is that 25% of KBH followers are currently with White, and he picked up a sizable chunk (immediately after the election) of Medina supporters. Let me qualify that by stating that's a guess based on the electoral raw numbers and without the benefit of the cross-tabs.

I'm also going to guess that Perry's 49% is a LOT more solid than White's 43% due to name and issues ID. Expect Perry to start trying to chip away at that 43% soon, his ultimate goal being to get White as close to the 29% Democratic base as he can.

The good news for White is that he's still a single-digit trailer. This means that, with the combination of a good campaign and some luck, this could draw down into a really tight race come November. Bill White's best (only) bet is to try and win a squeaker. He's simply not going to peel away enough of Perry's support to win in a blow out. As for Perry, I'd say right now he's about 80% to win, even with the polls this close. If I were on his campaign I'd feel pretty comfortable with my 49%.

Nothing down-ballot yet. We'll see soon I hope. Be nice if it was based on 100% voting counts.

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