Monday, May 17, 2010

The Gub, as it stands now...

Ah the Bill White salad days...four points down (44%-48%) in the latest Rasmussen poll and trending upward. The InterLeft was starting to get that tingling sensation running up and down their collective legs with the thought of a non-gun toting policy wonk sitting in the front office under the Pink Dome.

That was April.

This is May....

(Election 2010, Texas Governor, 05/17/2010, Rasmussen Reports)
Texas Governor Rick Perry earns himself a little more breathing room this month, crossing the 50% mark for the first time in his bid for reelection against Democrat Bill White.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Texas shows the Republican incumbent with 51% support, while White earns 38%, his poorest showing to date.
Two important things here:

1. For the first time in this election cycle Perry has creeped above the 50% mark. What this means is that the independents who broke, probably broke his way. It also means that Bill White lost a sizable amount of middle-ground support as he (oddly) focused his television buy in Houston, while Perry focused on areas where Bill White is less well known.

2. Attacking Perry (and seeming anti-gun) for the now infamous coyote incident was probably not the smartest of moves. I'm not sure who the campaign staffer was that thought White could out-macho Perry but I'm willing to bet they're biting their nails down to the nubs today wondering if a pink-slip is coming their way.

It's not as if the media hasn't provided the White team plenty of cannon-fodder to mount an offensive. There are real fiscal concerns coming to light that I'm sure Perry would just as soon went away. Instead of awkward photo shoots like this (with White wearing what's now mockingly called "the nipple shirt"), and wonky 10-page 'analysis' of well blow-outs you would think White would better focus his message on what he's planning to do*, unless they feel what they are planning is not going to play well with Texas voters, something that their internal polling might have revealed.

In which case they should probably head back to the coyote shooting. Or just go ahead and admit that they're in a heap of trouble. Either way it's not good.

*I've always contended that Democrats should stand up and just say "hey, we've got to raise taxes" and see where that leads them. What gets them in trouble is trying to run as fiscal conservatives when they know full-well they have no plans to practice fiscal conservatism. The independents get ticked and Democrats are soon voted out of power. To be fair, there are some on the InterLeft who admit that tax increases are part of the platform, but the candidates rarely do. Instead of "a government that cares about the citizens" and "a government for all Texans" just tell us that, in order to make your project priorities work, Texans are going to have to pay more. Hell, run on an income tax platform if you believe in it....


  1. Why would the Democrats be honest about raising taxes? I'd suggest Obama and Mark Warner as case studies. Say "I won't raise taxes" loudly during the campaign, and then once elected count on the media to support your tax increases.

  2. That idea works...for short term wins. Then they get voted out on the next go-round and the Republicans are free to mess things up again on their watch.

    FWIW: I fully understand that Democrats can't stand up and say what they're really going to do, but it'd sure be a nice world if they would.

  3. it worked pretty well for Mark Warner...


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