Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Outliers (Updated)

On the heels of the latest Rasmussen poll showing Rick Perry with a 51-38 lead over Bill White there's much contorting in the blogosphere to write these results off as an outlier.

I haven't had a chance to fully digest the cross-tabs of the Rasmussen poll as of yet but what I have seen makes me wonder this:

Given the Maslin poll (Commissioned by a The Texas Sierra Club which leans severely Democratic and the March Rasmussen numbers which had Perry up 49-43 the question should be which of these two polls is the outlier?

I don't think we'll know for sure until the Bill White Texas Tribune releases their upcoming poll for public consumption.


Also: Reading the Burka post is like stepping into an alternate reality. His contention that Perry is rising because of Annise Parker's recent statements feels off base. My guess is that less than 2% of Texas voters have even paid any attention to those statements, and they really won't matter until Perry hits TV with his bundle of ads against Bill White. I think the two big movers in this poll are attitudes toward Obama (which I forgot to include in yesterday's post and the whole "I shot the coyote" incident.


Given that this story is creeping National I think the next round of poll results will tighten somewhat. Don't expect Perry's base to shrink substantially however. When your core support has no expectations for you it's hard to let them down. Such is the political reality of Perry.


Update:

The Bill White Texas Tribune has a new Democratic Poll out that shows White trailing by 9. They also refuse to release the entire poll which makes both the Tib and Evan scratch their chins.

It's looking more and more as if that Rasmussen poll from last month is the outlier isn't it?

1 comment:

  1. I'm pretty much the opposite of a Perry fan, but expect him to win this thing easily. You hit the nail square with this one:

    "When your core support has no expectations for you it's hard to let them down."

    Inexplicably, that's the truth...

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