Monday, November 1, 2010

Oh yeah, predictions.....

Just read Evan's excellent post(s) on House and Senate election predictions and realized I forgot to make mine.

CAUTION: You will find these to be worth exactly what you paid for them...if you want accuracy, see Evan.

US House: Republican gain of 62. Why 62? It sounds better than 60. Seriously: I'm of the opinion this is a tidal wave election. The media has gotten the "anti-incumbency" thing wrong, ignoring that most of the current wave is an anti-Democratic wave, the same type of wave that Republicans rode into power in 1994 and which rode them out of power in 2008. When one party gets their clutches on too many levers at one time they inevitably overreach and the public slaps the system back into equilibrium. Remember: Gridlock is NOT a bad thing.

US Senate: Republican gain of 7, just short of a majority. Evan does a great job breaking it down race-by-race and I don't disagree with him except with Reid & Illinois. I think Reid survives and the Chicago union vote keeps that seat for the Dems.

Texas Goober: Rick Perry by 6 or 7. That feels low, but it's where I started back in February and it's where I'm staying. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a double digit win however.

The rest of the Statewide ballot: Republicans by a land-slide, and the world will be no poorer except in the case of Jeff Weems, who appears to be the superior candidate. Expect some screeching by Dems (and some closed-door soul-searching) after the carnage.

Texas House: Republicans pick up 10+ seats. After all, it's a tidal-wave election here as well.

Texas Senate: No change to speak of. This chamber likes to stay fairly static. It didn't react all that much to the Democratic wave and I don't think it will change much here. I expect the Dems to be 1 or 2 Senators above the quorum line putting a run to Oklahoma back on the table.

Harris County: I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans won back just about everything. If the voting trends hold that is. If the Dems can bring the voting balance back to 53-50 outside/inside Beltway 8 then some incumbent Demos could survive.

Harris County judges: The Kevin Fine ad was brilliant. He's gone, and so are most of the other Democratic judges that were voted in back in '08.

Proposition 1: Fail. It will be close, but the tea-leaves I'm reading say it won't pass. That it shouldn't, being poorly conceived and a special-interest disaster waiting to happen, is another item all-together. (after the election it would be good if the media took a look at why local advocates take different stands on corporate welfare on a local and national level but I'm not holding my breath.)

Proposition 2: Pass. This will be close as well, but I think it squeaks through.

Proposition 3: Pass. The recent poll showing 60% of Houstonians being in favor of RLC's pretty much summed up what's going to happen here.

That's it. Anything else out there I haven't paid enough attention to to have a strong opinion one way or the other.

If you don't like these predictions, go vote and try and change them.

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