Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Don't believe the hype.

Polls such as this typically aren't worth much....

("Wave" election could be coming. Mackenzie Weinger, Politico)

Less than a quarter of Americans say most members of Congress deserve reelection — the lowest number ever found in the 20-year history of Gallup/USAToday polling — and the dismal numbers could mean another “wave election” is in the cards for Washington.
A wave "could" be coming, but it's probably not. A better poll question to ask would be whether or not people believe that THEIR congressional representative deserves re-election. Typically people feel this way about other people's representatives, but they prefer to keep theirs. That this is coming from Politico (which I consider to be a fairly conservative news organization that runs the occasional Prog friendly story) tells me that, on the political beat, the media is scrambling to frame 2012.

Also to add: The poll was a CNN poll. They do a pretty good job on specific elections (see: Machin WV Senate) but tend to trend further left as the issues become less granular. The problem seems to be a clear selection bias. Having not seen the crosstabs for this poll however I will admit this is a guess based, in part, on recent history.

Finally: Even IF this poll contains some type of selection bias I can't believe it would flip the numbers. If that's the case, then the Prog's should be happy because it means their finger-pointing on the debt fiasco has been more effective than the Conservatives. Given the media coverage surrounding this issue that should not come as much of a surprise.

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