Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Final Texans Draft 1st Pick Handicapping (Leaving it the same)

Even though Khalil Mack is a good player and is picking up momentum, I'm going to leave My Texans 1st pick odds the same as before: 

Odds for potential Texans Round 1 draft picks:
2/1 - Jadeveon Clowney -
I still think the DE from South Carolina is the slight favorite. He's the best player in this draft at any position. If the Texans don't trade the pick they should select Clowney and then turn JJ Watt loose on his motivation levels.

3/1 - Other (Pick traded) - This is starting to feel more and more likely. I think Coach O'Brien might have spent a little bit of time examining his current roster and is now fully understanding of how shallow the talent pool really is.

30/1 - Blake Bortles/Johnny Manziel - This might be a little high, but I don't get the feeling the Texans are very high on either of these two QB's

100/1 - Teddy Bridgewater - Amazingly, if he's still on the board, I think Bridgewater would be just about even money to be the Texans 1st pick in the 2nd round.

1000/1 - Don't trade pick/other - All of the Khalil Mack/Aaron Donald noise is just that. I don't put much stock in it.

I still think a trade is what the Texans want but I'm not sure, with teams motivated to trade back right behind them, if they're going to find a dance partner who's willing to give them the draft picks they need.  A GREAT trade would be to six w/Atlanta, which would give them their choice of Mack or Bortles, whichever was still on the board.

Since I don't think they're going QB in the first round here's how I think the first two rounds will look:

Round One: Jadeveon Clowney.
Round Two: Zach Mettenberger.

Whether or not they trade out of either or those picks is open for debate.  IF the Texans trade, then Khalil Mack becomes the favorite.  I think Mettenberger is the 2nd round pick regardless of a trade.

Not that any of my Houston blog fans will care, but I really think the 49ers are going to try and trade up to take Anthony Barr as a replacement for the troubled Aldon Smith. I'd like to see them try and use some of their many picks to trade up in the 2nd round and grab a CB like Jason Verrett, who experts have in the first round but who I think will fall because he's short.  Of course, these are ideal scenarios. Knowing my luck the Browns will trade back and take both Barr and Verrett right before the Niner's picks.

The draft starts tomorrow.  Thank goodness. (It's been too long this year NFL, waaaaay to long)

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