Thursday, September 11, 2014

College Football 10 Games: (Week 3) Starting to get a better feel for it.

So, in week 2 I went 6-4 ATS and 7-3 SO.  That puts me at 8-12 for the season ATS (which shows just how bad a terrible week can be) and 15-5 SO.  Clearly I'm doing an OK job picking winners but not such a good job on how much they're going to win by.  If you were betting money-line, this would be OK but you wouldn't make any money.  Let's try to get a strong week ATS going here.

As a bonus this week I'm going to throw in a game I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole, but for which I have some thoughts on.

Without further ado....

1. Baylor (-34) @ Buffalo  - These huge spreads typically give me reason to pause.  But with Baylor and their laugher of a non-conference schedule I still think the Bears are OK.  BU 63 BUF 10

2. Virginia Tech (-11) vs. Eastern Carolina - Coming off of a big road win against the Buckeyes the public loves them some Hokies.  I'm going to fade them b/c of emotion and the fact that ECU is not half bad.  Hokies win, but close.  VT 27  ECU 20

3. Brigham Young (-14) vs. Houston - Last week against Grambling State meant nothing. This Cougar team is still awful.  BYU 42 UH 14

4. Georgia (-6) vs. South Carolina - Gurley will run rampant, SC is still trying to put it together. The biggest miss that I had in the pre-season was predicting them as an SEC contender. That said, this game is a must-win if they want to stay in the hunt.  UGA 24 SC 21

5. Oklahoma (-21) vs. Tennessee - We keep hearing how the Vols are "back". This game will go a long way to telling us if this is true or not.  OU 35 UT 10

6. Maryland (-4.5) vs. West Virginia - Given the B1G's no-good awful Saturday last week I'm surprised they're favored in foosball.  Maryland 20 WVU 35

7. Texas Tech (-2) vs. Arkansas - I don't like Beilema as a coach but I think Arkansas is more talented than the Red Raiders. That said, I think Kingsbury gets it done.  ARK 20 Tech 24

8. Texas Christian (-8.5) vs. Minnesota - Again, at this point how can you pick the B1G for anything?  TCU 27 Minn 14

9. Oklahoma State (-13.5) vs. UT-San Antonio - For two weeks now I've been burned by the Sr. laden Road Runners.  I'm a believer.  OSU 27 UTSA 20

10. University of California - Los Angeles (-6) vs. Texas-Austin - The Longhorns are a program in deep distress. UCLA has looked good on one side of the ball, but not the other, for two weeks now. I think this is finally the week we see what UCLA can really do. UCLA 56 UT-Austin 10

Bonus picks: (Games I would not touch due to a variety of reasons)

Michigan (-31) vs. Miami (OH) - Ironically, the Wolverines are favored by the exact same amount that Notre Dame whupped them by last Saturday.  Right now, as much as I'm rooting for them, I can't pick Michigan to beat air by 31 points.  Go Blue 35 RedHawks 27

Iowa (-15.5) vs. Iowa State - What game have the Hawkeyes played this year to make you think they're 16 points better than the Cyclones?  This shows the power of pre-season perception (that the Hawkeyes would contend in the B1G) taking over common sense.  Iowa 14 ISU 27

Good luck this week and Go Blue!

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