Thursday, September 4, 2014

Houston Texans: On the record for 5-11

The NFL regular season starts this evening so I thought it might be a good time to go on record for the Texans season. Last year, I predicted they would go 9-7 and barely missing the playoffs. Despite that being horribly wrong I should note that I was much more accurate than most of the paid sports writers in Houston, almost all of them suggesting double digit win totals and a Division title/deep playoff run.

So, without further ado:

Week 1: vs. Washington - Loss
Week 2: @ Oakland - Loss
Week 3: @ NY Giants - Loss
Week 4: vs. Buffalo - Win!
Week 5: @ Dalla - Win!
Week 6: vs. Indianapolis - Loss
Week 7: @ Pittsburgh - Loss
Week 8: @ Tennessee - Loss
Week 9: vs. Philadelphia - Loss
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: @ Cleveland - Win!
Week 12: vs. Cincinnati - Loss
Week 13: vs. Tennessee - Win!
Week 14: @ Jacksonville - Loss
Week 15: @ Indianapolis  - Loss
Week 16: vs. Baltimore - Loss
Week 17: vs. Jacksonville - Win!

So, over all I've got the team at 5-11.  Given the weakness of the first three teams on the schedule however (games I have all marked as losses) that could improve to 8-8 IF the team starts off well.

That said, all of the teams that fans of the Texans are looking at as "weak" on the schedule also have fans that are looking at the Texans as if they are a sure win. It cannot be ignored that this team a.) has a 14 game losing streak in games that count and b.) looked like a hot mess against both Arizona and San Francisco.

I will say this, I believe that 5-11 is the FLOOR for the Texans and not the ceiling. The ceiling is 8-8 although, for draft picks, that could be just about the worst-case scenario since it would probably mean that the Texans will be out of the running for any of the top QB's in next year's draft.

I don't go too much into the NFL regular season predictions (preferring to focus on the college game (which, to be honest, I watch a lot more of because I find NFL games boring) but here's how I see the rest of the divisions shaping up.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Houston Texans

AFC North

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns

AFC East

1. New England Patriots
2. Miami Dolphins
3. New York Jets
4. Buffalo Bills

AFC West

1. Denver Broncos
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Oakland Raiders

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Carolina Panthers

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers
2. Detroit Lions
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Washington Redskins
3. New York Giants
4. Dallas Cowboys

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. St. Louis Rams.

Yes, as a 49ers fan that last one HURTS, but I think the losses in the middle of the defense (Bowman and Whitner) are going to be too much for the team to overcome and they're going to suffer against the run and TE pass this year.

No predictions for the playoffs yet.  Enjoy the game tonight and enjoy the season.

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