Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Ten Games: (Week 6) After 3 straight winning weeks, a couple of games got me.

It all started out OK. I was winning the first three games and then the bottom dropped out on some underdogs that I thought had a chance to cover.  Such is College Football.

In Week 5 I went 4-6 ATS and 8-2 SU so that puts me at 24-26 ATS and 38-12 SU for the season.  The good news is that I'm just one great week from breaking out of mediocrity.  The bad news is I've been stuck in mediocre for most of the year.  It's time to turn it around and this appears to be the week to do it.

Even better, this promises to be one of the best weekends of the College Football season as we finally start to hit the meat of conference play and several good teams are playing each other.  Finally, we will start to get some real information that will mean that Top 25 rankings will start to matter.

Here we go....

1. Arizona @ Oregon (-23) - The thing about the Ducks is that they get some crazy lines. The O/U for this game is 70.  I think Arizona is a little underrated but I'm not sure how they handle Oregon at Autzen.  Take the over, but I'm thinking you might take AZ to (barely) cover.  AZ 30 UO 50

2. Texas Agricultural & Mechanical University @ Mississippi State (-1.5) - What a difference a week makes. Heading into last week you would have thought the Aggies to be the favorites.  But the Bulldogs destroy LSU and the Aggies struggle against Arkansas and.....That said I'm still not a believer in Mullins and I think the Aggies are the more talented team.  aTm 42 MissSt 38

3. Stanford (-2) @ Notre Dame - Even though Notre Dame fans are incapable of talking about Michigan without being catty I can talk about Notre Dame reasonably. I think the Irish have a good team this year and I think Stanford will be a very valid test.  Everett Golston is a good college QB and the Irish are very talented at the skill positions. Plus, they're at home which is huge for them. Stan 21 ND 24

4. Alabama (-6) @ Ole Miss - Expect the Grove to be hoppin' as ESPN Game Day is scheduled to make their first appearance there.  While SEC dribblers like Paul Finebaum are hyping the Tide as the number one team in all the land, I think it's fair to say that there's still a lot of football to play before we crown them King.  Bama 27 Ole Miss 17

5. Oklahoma (-5) @ Texas Christian University - Like Alabama, OU has received a lot of run as the "leader on the course" in terms of the best team in the Country.  Certainly, this is one of Bob Stoops' most talented teams in years and it still appears that the winner of the OU/Baylor tie later this year is the playoff representative for the Big Twen. (since the B1G has collapsed, I think they have the hole-shot.) Again though, there's still a lot of football to play.  OU 35 TCU 20

6. Louisiana State University @ Auburn (-8) - Those of an SEC persuasion, suddenly aTm fans mostly, have spent all year telling me that Auburn was ready for a fall.  I believe this is wishful thinking and it's LSU that's looking like the team who is going to take a step back.  Oh that offense Les.  LSU 27 AU 34

7. Texas Tech @ Kansas State (-8.5) - Tech's coach may be sexier than yours but he doesn't seem to be all that much better. TTU 21 KSU 42

8. Nebraska @ Michigan State (-11.5) - All Nebraska seems to have offensively is Abdullah. I expect Sparty to shut him down convincingly.  NU 10 MSU 38

9. Arizona State University @ University of Southern California (-11.5) - At this point I'm having a hard time trusting the Trojans.  ASU 28 USC 27

10. University of Central Florida @ University of Houston (-3) - My problem with the Cougars is that they don't have a qualified head coach. Plus, they've looked terrible at home. UCF 24 UH 10

Bonus Round:

Michigan @ Rutgers (-3) - Coming off the embarrassment in the Little Brown Jug game I'm hard pressed to pick Michigan for anything.  #HokeMustGo is not only a thing, it's an imperative.  More importantly, the Wolverines need to re-think everything they are doing about college football. The program is in free-fall.  They need fresh thinking to turn it around. GoBlue 10 Rutgers 31

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