Wednesday, December 23, 2015

College Football: Bowl Predictions part II: A Big weekend upcoming.

Saturday the 26th and Monday the 28th showcase several games, some of which might actually be entertaining.  As a reminder, I'm picking winner vs. the spread and Total on all of these for a total of two picks per game.

St Petersburg Bowl (Saturday, December 26th, 10:00 AM CST)

UConn @ Marshall (-4.5) [O/U 44] - I expect there to be a LOT of UConn money come in as the game gets closer which might inflate this line some.  Right NOW however I like Marshall to win by more than a touchdown against the fighting Diacos. The Huskies biggest problem is that they are scoring challenged. They're going to need to score to beat a Marshal team who has the opposite problem. UConn 14  Marshall 38.

Hyundai Sun Bowl (Saturday, December 26th, 1:00 PM CST)

Miami @ Washington State (-2.5) [O/U 61.5]  - If you've never seen Wazzu play you're in for a treat here. Despite being a fairly unlikable man Mike Leach designed offenses have never met a pass they can't, or won't throw. Miami has talent, but has been a disaster area all year long. That said, I'm expecting Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson to be making bad analysis of a lot of scoring (for two teams they haven't paid any attention to all year long) all game long.  Miami 35 Washington State 49.

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl (Saturday, December 26th, 1:20 PM CST)

Washington (-8.5) @ Southern Mississippi [O/U 55] - The Huskies have been called, by many, the "best 6-6 team in the Country" which is all well and good until you realize, they're still 6-6, are young, and make mistakes that come with being young. Southern Miss is given no chance here, which I think means they are in with a small chance.  Watch the line-move here, I think this is a TD game. So if it moves toward Southern Miss you want to go the other way. Washington 28 Southern Miss 21.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl (Saturday, December 26th, 2:30 PM CST)

Indiana (-2.5) @ Duke [O/U 71] - I think the O/U here is elevated, and I think Duke is underrated. I've seen both teams play multiple times and it looks, to me, like the Blue Devils are the better all-around team. Coaching edge to Cutcliffe. Indiana 24 Duke 27.

Camping World Independence Bowl. (Saturday, December 26th, 4:45 PM CST)

Tulsa @ Virginia Tech (-14) [O/U 61.5] - Frank Beamer's last game is sure to be an emotional one, and I think the public sentiment is moving this line too-far the Hokie's way. I think Virginia Tech wins, but Tulsa has enough offense to do some damage.  Tulsa 35 Virginia Tech 38.

Foster Farms Bowl (Saturday, December 26th, 8:15 PM CST)

UCLA (-6.5) @ Nebraska [O/U 61] - This game will be a long trip for Nebraska, to what is basically a home game for UCLA.  Add to that fact these are two of the worst coached teams in major college football and you have, what I think is, a crap-shoot.  I expect this line to move toward the Bruins a little bit as time passes.  I don't think it matters. UCLA 49  Nebraska 20.

Military Bowl presented by Northrup Grumman (Monday, December 28th, 1:30 PM CST)

Pittsburgh @ Navy (-3.0) [O/U 53] - This will be the going away party for Navy QB Reynolds, the all-time leading touchdown scorer in NCAA Div 1 history by the end.  One thing to be careful about. Pitt head coach Narduzzi is going to have 3-plus weeks to prepare for Navy's option offense, and tape from the UH game providing a blue-print for how to beat it.  Pittsburgh 27 Navy 31.

Quick Lane Bowl (Monday, December 28th, 4:00 PM CST)

Central Michigan @ Minnesota (-6) [O/U 48] - The Minnesota motto here is going to be "win one for Jerry" referring to retired former head coach Jerry Kill. Central Michigan is going to be ecstatic to get to play a bowl game against a B1G opponent. Joy only goes so far, Minnesota is way more talented. Central Michigan 14 Minnesota 27

If you are lucky (or unlucky) enough to watch all of these games you might be suffering from football fatigue leading into the big games starting on Tuesday. In short, don't overdo it.  Take advantage of line moves when you can and, as always, bet legally and responsibly.

So, go and eat too much, drink too much (but don't drive while doing it) and have a generally good holiday. We'll see you on the other side of Christmas.

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