Friday, May 6, 2016

Horse Racing: Kentucky Derby Betting Spread (Exaggerator)

The first Saturday in May.  Spring has sprung and the 142nd Kentucky Derby will be ran.  Off of last year's Triple Crown winning performance by American Pharoah it's easy to think that attendance and interest will be at an all time high. I won't be at a track on Saturday, but I will be at one on Friday and I'll lay my bets then.  Here's what I'm thinking.

1. $20 Win - Exaggerator. If you didn't see this horse close in the Santa Anita Derby then you should probably go find the video. All he did was pass some very stiff competition as if they were standing still. It was the most impressive closing quarter that I've seen from a 3yo this year.  As such, I'm backing Exaggerator heavily and will be using him in all my exotics.

2. $10 Win - Creator. I've a superstition about betting the gray (don't do it) but I'm going to break that here as I think this is a horse on the come. Not a ton of confidence, but would feel pretty silly leaving him out.

3. $10 Win - Outwork. If this was a beauty competition, not a race, Outwork is your winner hands down. He's also pretty fast and comes from the stable of Mike Repole who is brash, kind of annoying and typical New Jersey, but who has a history of putting forth winning horses. Besides, it feels like Pletcher is due.

4. $1-Tri Box - 3 (Creator), 11 (Exaggerator), 13 (Nyquist), 15 (Outwork) - Basically my top 3 plus the race favorite. $12 bucks into the track's till.

5. $2  - Supr - 11 (Exaggerator), 13 (Nyquist), 5 (Gun Runner), 2 (SuddenBreakingNews)

6. (Added) $2 ATB Whitmore. Given the Buzz on this horse, and if the odds are right, I feel like I'm going to regret leaving him out.

Every year I try to hit the Derby Superfecta Straight up, and every year I fail.  It's quite possibly the hardest bet to hit in horse racing.  Yes, I could box it or key on a certain horse but I do that in my Trifecta.  Besides, there's a ton of fun in just taking a $2 shot at something that could pay out on the thousands.  I have, in the past, hit a straight Superfecta before. Not at the Derby however so we'll try and try again.

Good luck in whatever you do Saturday, and support Texas Racing if you can by going to a track and placing a bet, watching the races and having a good time.

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