Put me in the "Change the Calendar" Camp Please.

With the Kentucky Derby coming up this weekend (and the time of year that people pay a little attention to horse racing) the annual debate around changing the Triple Crown Calendar is on again.

Put me firmly in the "let's change it up" category.

First Saturday in May: Kentucky Derby

Memorial Day: Preakness

Weekend of July 4th: Belmont.

Yes, I understand that this would have an impact on later racing, but not much when you really think about it.

The biggest issue would be the timing of the "next" big race, the Grade 1 Haskell. But the Saratoga meet is several weeks and it could be bumped back some. After that the next big race is the Travers, in late August.  I see no reason why those dates cannot get shifted some. Again, the meet at the Spa is several weeks in length.

The problem with this argument is, as it has always been in horse racing, that shifting these races around would require coordination between the various racing State entities. Such as thing just does not happen in horse racing. The States are selfish, silly, and lack the capacity to take a long view of the sport. So, while the solution seems easy, it's probably going to be more difficult than it should be and eventually come way too late for it to matter.

Horse racing is whistling past the graveyard right now. Irrelevant except for one Saturday in May (and for two more races IF the same horse wins, and all but ignored the rest of the year. That's too bad of course, how many people would be a fan of horses like Skippylongstockings or White Abbario if only they knew to pay attention to them, but it's where the industry seems bent on heading.

There are many other problems in the sport, horrible gambling product being front and center, but the inability of the State Racing Commissions to work and play well with others is at the top.

And this ignores States like Texas, whose rules are designed to end the industry all together within it's borders.

Closing the Door on my Horse Race Betting Hobby

Or...why I quit worrying and learned to avoid the track.

The revelation, in the New York Times, that Justify failed a drug test during the Santa Anita Derby which would have denied him the points to enter the Kentucky Derby (which he won, leading to an eventual Triple Crown), isn't what's leading me to abandon betting on a sport that I once loved.

Nor is it the fact that several horses die due to injuries every year.

Nope, what's causing me to abandon the sport is that it's becoming increasingly clear that it's a rigged game. That the government agencies in charge of the sport are willingly rigging it in favor of bigger named trainers, owners, breeders and jockeys.

My fall-out began last year in the Kentucky Derby, and it's come to a nadir with this story.  This is on top of all the troubling recent news about increased take-out and several industry "influencers" stating that betting is not an integral part of horse racing and that bettors aren't really needed.

OK then, we're going to test that theory because I'm done.  Finished.  The last bet that I placed on a horse race IS the last bet I will ever place on a horse race. Because I cannot in good conscious bet into a game that's rigged against me, and that doesn't value my money, time and investment.

Strangely enough, this will also affect several other decisions in my sports life.

1. I'm getting rid of the increasingly terrible U-Verse TV service.  Pretty much the ONLY reason I kept them was to keep up with goings-on on TVG.  Now that I don't need that service any longer, hail and farewell, hello streaming.

2. I've probably spent my last dollar at Sam Houston Race Park.  This is the hardest choice because I really liked going there.  But going there and not betting seems silly and pretty much a waste of time.

3. Since I'm not betting on races I probably won't even WATCH the races.

It's not that there aren't other, less problematic, areas to scratch the sports-betting itch, even in notoriously betting unfriendly (and backwards) Texas.  All of them better than betting on a game that's become hopelessly corrupt, extremely backward and, in most cases, unprofitable due to the manipulation of tote boards on the "last tick" before the races go off.

So, Good Bye horse racing, I truly hope you can dust yourself off and turn yourself around and become a viable gaming option again, but I doubt it.  Because the people in charge, and the media covering you, have become just as corrupt and untrustworthy as every other government or media agency.

It's all Fake News now, no matter which side you're on.



At least I'll always have Afleet Alex in the Preakness, and War Emblem and especially Secretariat.

I'll keep those memories.

2019 Belmont DAY: My betting strategy for the 'other' races.

The 2019 race card on Belmont Day at...well....Belmont is HUGE. No fewer than 10 graded stakes races, all of which could anchor their own day.  Unfortunately, that's not where horse racing is right now (more on that later) so instead of getting them all featured they're all going to run in the shadow of the Third (and most gimmicky) leg of the Triple Crown, which means that many fine races are going to go overlooked.

Even I'm not going to spend the time (TBH, I don't have the time) to break down all 10 races, instead I'm going to provide you with my betting strategy for the day here.

After skipping races 1 & 2 I'm going to start dabbling in the 3rd, hoping to catch some prices to build the bank-roll for the races in the heart of the card.

Race 3: $150,000 Easy Goer Stakes. I expect most of the money to be wagered on the 6 -Alwaysmining and the 4 - Outshine.  I'm going to take a different tack and look for somewhat of a price on the 2 - Dream Maker. Trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Julian Leparoux I think this horse has a real chance to pull an upset here. I'm hoping he goes off around 10/1  Bet: $5 Win - 2

Race 4: $700,000 Just a Game Stakes. Almost all of the money is going to be placed on the 4 - Rushing Fall, but I'm going to look toward a different Chad Brown horse the 6 - Environs. I typically like European turf horses better than I do their American counterparts and I'm still getting the best American turf trainer in the business, at a MUCH better price. Bet: $5 Win - 6

Race 5: $700,000 Ogden Phipps Stakes On paper this is a two horse race between the 1 - Come Dancing and the 2 - Midnight Bisou.  I cannot really argue with this but I like the 5 - Mopotism to come in 3rd at a long price which could let the Trifecta pay nicely. At least we hope. Bet: $2 Tri 2-1-5

Race 6: $400,000 Jaipur Stakes. I love turf sprint races, and I love when I can catch a Wesley Ward horse at a price in them. The 8 - World of Trouble is going to be the overwhelming favorite here but I'm going to play against him with two horses, the 1 - Undrafted  and the 7 - Belvior Bay. My hope is to catch lightning in a bottle. Bet: $5 Win 1 and $5 Win 7

Race 7: $700,000 Acorn Stakes. The traditional 3rd leg of the Filly Triple Crown isn't really a thing any more, but this is a good race with some good horses from which I really like the 1 - Serengeti Empress and the 3 - Cookie Dough. I'm going to hope for a speed dual and that my horses pick up the pieces.  Bet: $5 Win - 1 and $5 Win 3

Race 8 - 11:

8: $400,000 Woody Stephens

9: $1,200,000 Metropolitan Mile

10: $1,000,000 Manhattan

11: $1,500,000 Belmont Stakes

I'm grouping all of these races together because, outside of my Belmont wagers that I've mentioned before, I'm probably ONLY going to play the All-Stakes Pick 4.

My choices are as follows:

Race 8: 2-3-4-9

Race 9: 2-3-7

Race 10: 8

Race 11: 8-9-10

$18.00 total

It's possible that, in the Met Mile I'll throw a $5 win bet at the 3 - Mitole, but that depends an awful lot on the post-time odds. Outside of that the plays are odds dependent, so it will probably be the above pick 4 and sit and hope that Bricks and Morter is all that I think he is.

Good luck to you however you bet and enjoy the races.

2019 Belmont Stakes: No Triple Crown Contender, but a Strong Field Nevertheless

And so we get to the end of a weird, and wild, 3 Year Old racing season.

What's that? You think the horse racing season ends after the Triple Crown races? Oh how wrong you are.

While the public, and horse players, get all fired up for these races the truth is that the BEST horse races of the year are still to come.  The Haskell, The Travers, the Breeder's Cup. All are still to be ran. Not to mention the late-year races for 2 year olds, some of whom will feature in NEXT YEAR's Triple Crown.

But first, we have the 151st Running of the Belmont Stakes the oldest of the Triple Crown races, and the oddest, ran at 1 1/2 miles over the dirt course at a track affectionately known as "Big Sandy".

Here's a look at the field, the trainers/jockeys. the opening Money Line, my thoughts, and how I'm going to bet it.


1. Joevia 30-1 (Gregg Sacco/Jose Lezcano)  OK, he's fast. But when going longer, as he tried to do in the 1 1/8th mile Wood Memorial he seems to hit a wall. His best race was his last one, the 1 1/16th Mile Long Branch at Monmouth. It says something however that his connections chose this race in order to avoid Maximum Security. He might play an early role in the pace, but I think he'll be praying for the line at the end and should be near the bottom half.  I'm tossing him here.

2. Everfast 12-1 (Dale Romans/Luis Saez) Way outran his odds at the Preakness, where he finished second, which is much, much better than he's done in prior races against similar competition. IF you think he's an improving horse that "figured it all out" in the 2nd jewel then you might want to take a stab. I personally think it was a perfect trip situation and the extra distance is not going to help.  Possibly he can be included in the bottom of the exotics but that's about it.

3. Master Fencer 8-1 (Koichi Tsunoda/Julien Leparoux) The Japanese import was the horse that I identified as the "sharp horse" heading up to last weekend. Then he stumbled in training and has gone through multiple X-rays and the buzz around him seems to have cooled. I thought he ran an uninspiring 6th in the Kentucky Derby but he, like others, had trip issues and it's hard to take anything away from that race since the staff decided to harrow the track immediately prior to a deluge. I'm going to toss him, and I'll actually be a little surprised if he runs.

5. Tax 15-1 (Danny Gargan/Irad Ortiz Jr.) The big question regarding Tax is this: Can you draw a line through the Kentucky Derby, where he failed to fire and finished 14th? Or was that a sign of things to come?  When you throw in sub-par works leading up to the Belmont the questions abound.  The connections are pointing to a foot injury that they say should be healed by race day. Outside of that I'm not sure he's got the breeding in his background to go 1 1/2 miles. That said, I'm not keeping him in my exotics because he's a talented horse with a good bloodline.

6. Spinoff 15-1 (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) Spinoff is a dead closer who seems to not be as effective closing as the race gets longer. His two wins are in short-ish races (5 furlongs and 1 mile and 40 yards) against non-stakes competition.  But trainer Todd Pletcher is tough to ignore at Belmont, and he thinks the slop of a track at Churchill is a good excuse. He's an exotic pick for me, near the bottom though.

7. Sir Winston 12-1 (Mark Casse/Joel Rosario) When running against similar, this horse finished out of the money, when running against a notch lower he hit the board.  There seems to be a feeling that he's an improving horse and the run in the Peter Pan, where he finished 2nd in hard-charging style, is evidence of that. He's got Afleet Alex and Deputy Minister in his bloodline, so the distance should not be a worry. I'm going to use him in my exotics, but not to win. I think he's not talented enough to do so.

8. Intrepid Heart 10-1 (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) When Tood Pletcher signs Velazquez to a horse,he thinks he's in with a chance. the problem is he's so lightly raced, it's hard to decide is the G3 Peter Pan was an exception, or the rule? This is a Tapit colt, and you cannot ignore that in the Belmont.  I'll be using him as my upset pick and I'll put him in my exotics just in case. I'll also probably use him in my vertical wager.

9. War of Will 2-1 (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione)  This was my top pick heading into the Kentucky Derby, he was my top pick heading into the Preakness, and he's going to be my top pick heading into the Belmont.  As a matter of fact, were it not for Maximum Security bouncing all over the place in the Derby I truly believe that this horse would be a live shot for back-to-back Triple Crown winners. As it stands, I think after time passes we're going to find out that he was the best 3 YO in this class.

10. Tacitus 9/5 (Bill Mott/Jose Ortiz Jr.) There's a lot to like about this horse running 1 1/2 miles, he's got breeding (Tapit) and he's got the grinding style to wear down other horses in the LONG stretch at Belmont. He's a smooth-mover who looks great on the gallop, and could end up running away with it all in the end.  I think the odds are going to be too short to play him seriously on Saturday, but he'll figure prominently in my exotics and he'll be in all my vertical wagers.



Betting Strategy:

For ease of use I'm only going to talk about the Belmont, and not my vertical wagers.  Here's how I'm planning to bet this race:

$20 Win - 9
$10 Win - 8
$5 Tri 9-10-8
$5 Win 8

$1 Supr 9-10 with 9-10-8 with 8-6-5 with 8-6-5-2 ($26)


Good luck however you bet. I'm going to examine the Met Mile and talk about my All-Stakes Pick 4 ticket in a later post.

When horse racing dies, it will be with a whimper.

While this is not a horse racing blog I've felt the need recently to blog a lot about this sport that I love, mainly because I'm afraid in the future there won't be much opportunity to do so.

To whit:

Feinstein renews calls for suspension of racing at Santa Anita Park. Horse Racing Nation

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein on Monday renewed her call for an "immediate moratorium" on racing at Santa Anita Park, where three equine fatalities in nine days have track safety issues under the magnifying glass again.

"How many more horses must die before concrete steps are taken to address what is clearly an acute problem?" Feinstein said. “I once again call for an immediate moratorium on racing at Santa Anita. We need a thorough investigation of practices and conditions at the track before any more races are held."

I'm going to point out a thing or two here that is not a defense of the Stronach Group, whom I deplore, but only serves to show just how silly and convoluted the current drama surrounding horse racing really is.

First, these attacks against horse racing are coordinated. When you have multiple groups spouting the exact same talking points you cannot assume that they are being honest when they say their complaints are occurring in a vacuum. In fact, all of the people who spoke in front of the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) who claimed to be a "private individual, without affiliation to any group" who then proceeded to spout the same talking points were not being truthful. These people were coached what to say.

Second, the goal of PeTA and other groups is NOT safe horse racing. It's NO horse racing at all in the United States. Much like the lies they repeatedly told about the circus, they will not stop until they reach their goal.  And yes, I have first hand knowledge of former circus behavior. I've seen how the animals were really treated and it wasn't in the same manner as heavily edited video from PeTA activists.  In almost all cases the animals were treated better than the humans who worked there. (The latter was the REAL controversy surrounding the circus, that never got any media play)

Finally, You cannot trust a group like PeTA when it comes to animal welfare issues. They are not legitimate actors in the game. In fact, PeTA has been directly responsible for more animal deaths than any of the groups they claim to be against.  PeTA are bomb-throwers, their job is to make noise and try to disrupt traditional American culture. They could give two-figs about animal welfare.

All of this doesn't mean that the complainers are wrong.

In fact, in one important aspect, horse drugging and overall welfare, they could be onto something.

Even more pathetic is the horse industry's response.  I Am Horse Racing is saccharine and overly sweet, but it doesn't even begin to address the problems that the industry is having. It's great that everyone involved is "3rd generation" and "loves horses" but that doesn't mean that every trainer, doctor, horse guru is operating under the same pretext.

The horse racing industry's failure to get control of the racing drug problem is problematic at best, damning at worst. The entire industry is built not around the customers, but profit for the suppliers. What that creates is an ungoverned, uneven playing field and a dearth of consistent, fair, regulations under which the suppliers operate.

Because of this the betting markets are skewed, viewed as unreliable under the most generous reading.  But many consider them unfairly skewed, which has led to a shrinking customer base frustrated by late-moving tote-boards, inconsistent race stewardship and, even worse, increasingly high take-outs which make profitability in gaming extremely difficult to attain.  We haven't even broached the subject of breakage and it's detrimental effect.

Now, horse racing has reached it's nadir.  It is now a sport with an aging fan base who has taken few good steps to attract an younger audience. It is operating primarily on income driven from slots, and the locations that do not have them fall further and further behind. Media coverage is non-existent, except for organizations who are profiting off the sales of historical data, which are free in other sports. Bettors are stuck with a devil's choice of high-takeout wagers, or high-takeout "jackpot" wagers which are almost impossible to hit.

The tracks that have tried to buck the high-takeout trends get little attention or action from the very bettors and horse players who grouse about these things. In many cases the gripers are no longer betting, and are just (pardon the term) continuing to beat a dead horse for attention.

This is one of those increasing events in the world where, no matter who wins, we are all losers.  Because the eventual winners in all of this are going to either be the "Bad folks" at PeTA, or the "Bad Folks" running horse racing. Evil, always, wins.  The arc of history in sports does not bend to justice or fairness, it bends toward greed.

Horse racing in America in on the precipice of falling victim to it's own greed, and the powers in charge could give a damn as long as they can move overseas and continue their practices there.

Dianne Feinstein doesn't care about horses, she cares about votes. And right now she thinks that there are more votes to be gained by trying to demolish an industry (which, by the way, would lead to the death of thousands of horses who suddenly don't have a purpose in life).

I'm going to close with this:  One of the largest criticisms leveled against horse racing in recently held CHRB meetings, and one that (amazingly!) was uttered by dozens of "independent citizens" was that the horses in the races were "non-consenting participants." (seriously, ALL of these supposedly unrelated people used the exact same words). Their argument centered around the belief that these horses did not want to be there and that, given the choice, they would not run.

To those people I have always said that they should actually go watch a horse and see what they do in a pasture.  They run if you've never seen one.

To them now I say, watch Bodexpress in the Preakness, who unseated his rider at the gate.



Now tell me these horses don't WANT to run.

The 144th Preakness: The Race is Stronach'd, and I'm not Having it.

For about the past 25 years I've been a horse player.  Not every day mind you, not even every week. I'm what you might call a 'social horse bettor'.  I like to bet the Kentucky Derby Prep races, including the 2YO races the year prior, the Triple Crown, the Royal Ascot, Meydan Carnival and the bigger races in the Fall.

It's not much, and I'm not a huge player, but I've enjoyed it and horse racing has always been something that I've been drawn to, despite only riding a horse two times in my life.

I'm not great, but I'm not that bad either. I can handicap slightly above-average and it's a rare card that I don't at least hit something on which allows me to break even, or sometimes better.  Are their exceptions?  Sure.  This year I whiffed on the Kentucky Derby Day card, doing a good job picking two out of the top three horses to finish in every race.  This would have been great but I was betting mainly trifectas.

I pulled an O-fer on the Derby, which is not unusual, but with the disqualification this year even my wife missed, which is unusual for her. (She had Maximum Security of course, so she's not happy).

So we go forward to the Preakness, traditionally my 'get back' race, the card where I have historically recouped my losses from Derby Day, and then some.


And I'm not betting it this year.


In fact, I'm not betting any race on a track that's owned and operated by the Stronach Group. This includes anything ran at Gulfstream Park, Gulfstream Park West, Pimlico, Laurel Park, Golden Gate or Santa Anita.

Which means that, this year and for the foreseeable future, I will not be placing a wager on the Preakness. I will be a spectator.

I'm doing this for three reasons:

First: I am unhappy with the way TSG handled the horrific breakdown situation at Santa Anita, how they dithered while the horse racing industry took a black eye, and how they tried to appease PeTA before realizing that that group of crazies don't want safe horse racing, they want no horse racing at all. They also want all horses to be relegated to sanctuaries, thinking that "horse deaths will stop happening" if they are.  That alone shows you how silly these groups are and that they should never be engaged in matters such as this.

But TSG CEO Belinda Stronach reached out, provided them credibility, and now we're looking at the very real possibility of horse racing being eventually banned in California.


Second: The betting structure at TSG tracks is among the worst in the Nation.  Take-out, the portion of the betting pools that tracks keep, is incredibly high at most of their tracks. Quite often at the maximum rates that States will allow.

But it goes further than that. TSG has introduced the scourge of betting that are so-called "jackpot" vertical wagers, where a pick six pays only a tiny portion of the pool if their are multiple winners, and only pays out the entire pool (less the high takeout) if there is one single winning ticket.

Except on mandatory payout days, these wagering structures are punitive toward players, as they lower the expected return and allow the tracks to earn interest on money instead of returning it to horse players. Most jurisdictions have regulations that aren't current enough to contemplate wagering of this type, so the tracks are given carte blanche to payout whenever they want. In some cases they might carry a pool past the end of the meet, waiting until the next meet to hold a mandatory payout day.

Third: TSG is becoming more and more aggressive toward Off-Track-Betting pari-mutual sites such as BetAmerica that they do not control. If you're not familiar with this situation, TSG went to BetAmerica at the 11th hour and proposed onerous financial terms for BA to continue offering wagering at their track. The result of this is that anyone with a BetAmerica account, will not be able to use it to bet the Preakness card.

That's short-sighted, dumb, and ultimately will benefit TSG, but will further damage horse racing as a whole. It's as dumb as Twin Spires and their argument with TVG, fortunately cooler heads prevailed on the latter issue.

So, while I've analyzed the field and I've provided a sure-to-not-win Superfecta for the Preakness I will not be putting any of my hard-earned money into a Stronach ran pool.

That feels wrong, but I know it is the right thing to do.

Enjoy the races, good luck to your if you're betting.

Updated: The 145th Kentucky Derby Post Positions and ML Odds (with recent bombshell news)

So, Omaha Beach has scratched. That leaves us with this:

1. War of Will (15-1) Tyler Gafflione - Brutal post draw for a horse that needs to be on or near the front. If he gets squeezed back as the rail closes his path down early, it's over.

2. Tax (20-1) Junior Alvarado - Also not the best of post draws. He'll have to do something special to win this.

3. By My Standards (15-1) Gabriel Saez - Not the worst post draw for him, but I'm not a fan of closers in this crowded a field.

4. Gray Magician (50-1) Dreydan Van Dyke - Maybe you take a flyer because of the hot jock on board, but he's probably out-classed here.

5. Improbable (5-1) Irad Ortiz Jr. - It does hurt that he's going to be to the inside of Omaha Beach, but if he runs his race he's potentially the most talented of the lot. Ignore him at your peril.

6. Vakoma (15-1) Javier Castellano - He'll be my longshot pick but to be honest I'm not entirely confident given that we're likely to have a sloppy track.

7. Maximum Security (8-1) Gabriel Saez - Like many others, I'm not sure what to make of this horse. I'll probably include him in the bottom half of my exotics but I don't think he's good enough to win.

8. Tacitus (8-1) Jose Ortiz - He's a contender, and is ridden by the current top jock in the US. He'll play in both my horizontals and my vertical wagers.

9. Plus Que Parfait (30-1) Ricardo Santana - Tossing him out. I just don't think he's fast enough to compete here.

10. Cutting Humor (30-1) Corey Lanarie  - At most, a bottom of the verticals play.

11. Haikal (30-1) Rajiv Maragh - Good horse, good post position, will need to improve to stay with the best of the best here, but not out of hand if you're looking for a longshot.  Could be the "sharp" horse in this race however which might make him too low to play.

12 Omaha Beach (4-1) Mike Smith - What many believe is the best horse in this race has the best big race jockey and great post.  You can bet against him, but I wouldn't.

13. Code of Honor (12-1) John Velasquez - I don't love this spot for him, but I do like him being outside of Omaha Beach which means Johnny V can stalk if he so chooses.

14. Win Win Win (12-1) Julien Pimentel - I think Battaglia put this horse too high. The post draw isn't bad but he's going to have to work to avoid massive trip trouble.

15. Master Fencer (50-1) Julien Leparoux - Good story, the first Japanese bred horse granted entry to the Derby. Pretty horse, will ultimately be just too slow. Draw a line through him.

16. Game Winner (9-2) Joel Rosario - The 2 year old champion feels a little bit like last year's 2YO champion who won the Breeder's Juvenile, and then never progressed. I'll use him in my exotics however.

17. Roadster (5-1) Florent Giroux - Not the best post for him, and a post that's never won (0-44) but if any horse can win from here it's the third Baffert horse in the race.  In the end though I think he has trip trouble and this becomes a "what if" face for him.

18. Long Range Toddy (30-1) John Court - Good to see Court get a Derby mount, might not be such a good result but you never know.

19. Spinoff (30-1) Manny Franco - If Franco gets this horse a good trip through 19 other horses, given his lack of early speed, it would be the ride of the year.

20. Country House (30-1) Flavien Prat - Seemingly a horse with more hype than ability, I just can't seem him starting way out here and competing.


AE Bodexpress (30-1) Chris Landeros - IF he gets in I wouldn't use him. Has nothing in his past that suggests he's a KY Derby caliber horse.

So Bodexpress' connections now have a decision to make. If they take the option, they draw into 12. If not, then War of Will will break out of the two slot.

145th Kentucky Oaks Post Draw, ML Odds (and thoughts)

Friday is for the Fillies, the Oaks has been around (under various names) for almost as long as the Kentucky Derby (in fact, the race numbers are the same).

The post draw was Monday, and again Mike Battaglia *snicker* set the ML odds.

Thoughts...

1. Out for a Spin (15-1) Irad Ortiz Jr. - She hit a monster number her last time out but my thinking here is that a replica of that race would be a stretch. Still, Ortiz is a solid jockey and Dallas Stewart has a way of messing things up with long-odds horses.

2. Chocolate Kisses (20-1) Tyler Gaffalione - Why do I like this horse?  Because there are a ton of horses in this field who "need the lead" which could create a speed duel that's begging for a closer to come in and pick up the pieces from a tired field. I think Chocolate Kisses is the best closer in this group.

3. Lady Apple (20-1) Ricardo Santana Jr. - Pros: She's 3-3 this year and had a long rest from early racing in her 2YO career. Cons: Her best win is a Grade II and she's never faced horses of this caliber. I think she's a step or two too slow.

4. Bellafina (2-1) Flavien Prat. - The deserving favorite here could be tough to beat. BUT, she's not ran her best races at length and she DID lose over this track at last year's Breeder's Cup race. Still, she's looked GREAT leading up to the race. No way you can ignore her.

5. Flor de La Mar (20-1) Joel Rosario - Last time out she ran a spunky 2nd to Bellafina, but her best has been on fast, firm tracks. It's expected to rain on Friday at Churchill. If she wins it will be at a price, which IS something one rarely hears about a Baffert horse.

6. Positive Spirit (30-1) Manny Franco - She ran a turd of a race at the Fairgrounds, but surrounded that with two really good trips at the same distance. Her problem is the same as Lady Apple, she's never beaten horses of the caliber she's facing here.

7. Jaywalk (8-1) Javier Castellano - Stop me if you've heard this before: Talented 2YO wins like crazy and then comes back as a 3YO and can't replicate the form. That's Jaywalk. The good news is I think she'll take some action, driving up the price of better options.

8. Motion Emotion (15-1) Mike Smith - Speed horse, whose going to have to rely on Mike Smith to out tactic everyone else if she's to have a chance. Her best compliment has been that she's "gritty", something I don't like to play too heavily against G1 competition.

9. Liora (20-1) Channing Hill - IF it rains, you should not discount this horse who ran her best rain over Churchill when the track was sloppy.  Channing Hill will be a popular jockey pick on "ladies' day"

10. Champagne Anyone (6-1) - Chris Landeros - A horse that likes to be up front and who has blossomed since acquiring blinkers. Could be a contender here, or at least someone whose going to press Bellafina for the lead.

11. Jeltrin (15-1) Luis Saez - Best win was the GII Davona Dale over a sputtering Jaywalk at Gulfsream. The bad news: That, and every other race she's ran, was a one-turn race. Not a fan of backing a horse their first time around 2 turns against a field as solid as this. Still, another horse that could push the pace.

12. Street Band (15-1) Sophie Doyle - Took advantage of Serengeti Empress her last time out to win the G2 Fair Ground Oaks, but the winner in that race had a medical excuse. It's unlikely all of the other horses will here. She's a closer, but I don't think she's as good as Chocolate Kisses.

13. Serengeti Empress (8-1) James Graham - Until her bleeding issues she looked almost unbeatable. IF trainer Tom Amoss has figured that out then she could potentially run a scorcher here. Ignore her at your peril.

14. Restless Rider (6-1) Brain Hernandez Jr. Lightly raced (only once) in her 3YO season this could be the sharp horse of the race. IF she keeps the form from her two year old season it could be one of the rare occasions where the sharps pick the winner.


AE Dunbar Road (5-1) Lightly raced (only two starts) but has shown promise and could be set to improve should she get in.

AE Point of Honor (30-1) Doubtful she gets in, but could be a pretty fantastic Filly Miler if she needs an alternate career path.

145th Kentucky Derby Post Draw and ML Odds (with thoughts)

They just finished the live stream of the post draw, and Mike Battaglia *snicker* issued the ML odds.

Here are the results and a few thoughts.

1. War of Will (30-1) Tyler Gafflione - Brutal post draw for a horse that needs to be on or near the front. If he gets squeezed back as the rail closes his path down early, it's over.

2. Tax (20-1) Junior Alvarado - Also not the best of post draws. He'll have to do something special to win this.

3. By My Standards (20-1) Gabriel Saez - Not the worst post draw for him, but I'm not a fan of closers in this crowded a field.

4. Gray Magician (50-1) Dreydan Van Dyke - Maybe you take a flyer because of the hot jock on board, but he's probably out-classed here.

5. Improbable (6-1) Irad Ortiz Jr. - It does hurt that he's going to be to the inside of Omaha Beach, but if he runs his race he's potentially the most talented of the lot. Ignore him at your peril.

6. Vakoma (20-1) Javier Castellano - He'll be my longshot pick but to be honest I'm not entirely confident given that we're likely to have a sloppy track.

7. Maximum Security (10-1) Gabriel Saez - Like many others, I'm not sure what to make of this horse. I'll probably include him in the bottom half of my exotics but I don't think he's good enough to win.

8. Tacitus (10-1) Jose Ortiz - He's a contender, and is ridden by the current top jock in the US. He'll play in both my horizontals and my vertical wagers.

9. Plus Que Parfait (30-1) Ricardo Santana - Tossing him out. I just don't think he's fast enough to compete here.

10. Cutting Humor (30-1) Corey Lanarie  - At most, a bottom of the verticals play.

11. Haikal (30-1) Rajiv Maragh - Good horse, good post position, will need to improve to stay with the best of the best here, but not out of hand if you're looking for a longshot.  Could be the "sharp" horse in this race however which might make him too low to play.

12 Omaha Beach (4-1) Mike Smith - What many believe is the best horse in this race has the best big race jockey and great post.  You can bet against him, but I wouldn't.

13. Code of Honor (15-1) John Velasquez - I don't love this spot for him, but I do like him being outside of Omaha Beach which means Johnny V can stalk if he so chooses.

14. Win Win Win (15-1) Julien Pimentel - I think Battaglia put this horse too high. The post draw isn't bad but he's going to have to work to avoid massive trip trouble.

15. Master Fencer (50-1) Julien Leparoux - Good story, the first Japanese bred horse granted entry to the Derby. Pretty horse, will ultimately be just too slow. Draw a line through him.

16. Game Winner (5-1) Joel Rosario - The 2 year old champion feels a little bit like last year's 2YO champion who won the Breeder's Juvenile, and then never progressed. I'll use him in my exotics however.

17. Roadster (6-1) Florent Giroux - Not the best post for him, and a post that's never won (0-44) but if any horse can win from here it's the third Baffert horse in the race.  In the end though I think he has trip trouble and this becomes a "what if" face for him.

18. Long Range Toddy (30-1) John Court - Good to see Court get a Derby mount, might not be such a good result but you never know.

19. Spinoff (30-1) Manny Franco - If Franco gets this horse a good trip through 19 other horses, given his lack of early speed, it would be the ride of the year.

20. Country House (30-1) Flavien Prat - Seemingly a horse with more hype than ability, I just can't seem him starting way out here and competing.


AE Bodexpress (30-1) Chris Landeros - IF he gets in I wouldn't use him. Has nothing in his past that suggests he's a KY Derby caliber horse.

Kentucky Derby: Some Long Shot ideas for The Weekend Preps

Yes.  I know, the Santa Anita news is sucking up most of the horse racing oxygen.  But there are still three pretty important prep races this weekend that deserve your betting attention NOT named the San Felipe.

1. Grade II $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby. Tampa Bay Downs Race 11. 1 1/16th Miles. Dirt.

Points on offer: 50-20-10-5

Favorite: Well Defined (7/2) Kathleen O'Connell/Pablo Morales. - The winner of the "other" early Tampa Bay Prep Race, the Grade III Sam F. Davis returns to the site of his biggest victory trying for the back-to-back, and probably enough points to qualify outright should he win.  He's the only returning starter from that race however and faces a field of 11 new shooters.

The "sharp" favorite: Dream Maker (4/1) Mark Casse/Florent Giroux. - Took some time off after hoof injury in the Grade I Breeder's Futurity, but won his return race by 8 1/2. Has a good post draw (4) and almost everyone is expecting him to replicate his form here.

My 'favorites':

In races like this I like to try for a price. The 3 YO field is still defining itself as we sneak closer and closer to the major prep races and these are the ones where we usually have a better chance of finding an upset.

Tacitus (12/1) Bill Mott/Jose Ortiz - Why do I like Tacitus?  Because of his breeding for one (Tapit/Close Hatches) which makes him the half-brother of Justify. I also like the connections with Mott Training and Jose Ortiz in the irons. Yes, this is his first real test against Graded Stakes competition but you have to play angles like that in races such as this if you want to find a price.

Admire (12/1) Dale Romans/Robby Alvarado - Similar to Tacitus, this horse will need to improve greatly to win here but he does have a 2019 race under his belt and he has proven that he can make the distance. He's been around two turns before, which many of these horses haven't.  That said I really like him at longer distances (read: The Belmont) but I'll be taking a stab here.

2. Grade III $300,000 Gotham Stakes, Aqueduct, 1 Mile. Dirt.

Points on offer: 50-20-10-5

Favorite (Both Square and sharp): Instagrand (4/5) Jerry Hollendorfer/Jose Castellano - He's won two sprints, by a lot, and he seems to be bred to make a mile. It's telling to me that Hollendorfer has decided to keep him around one turn. I'm not yet sold that he's a horse that can stretch out, and I've a feeling that he's going to have his best career as a sprinter because he can be tail-on-fire fast.

The Head-scratcher: Much Better (5/1) Bob Baffert/Mike Smith - Where in the world does Much Better fit? Is he a turf horse? (His Breeder's Cup Turf result would say no) or a dirt Classic horse? We're going to find out a little bit in this race but I think his best situation might be in dirt miles going forward, which is why I might use him here if the odds are right.

My 'Favorites'

Much Better (see above)

Haikal (10/1) Kieran McLaughlin/Rajiv Maragh - A pure closer in a race where the pace is expected to be hot. He's ran down the fields in shorter races and a lot of his chances will be determined by Maragh's ride.  But. IF he gets a blistering pace in front of him I could see a scenario where he comes like a freight train down the stretch and mops up many tired pieces for a long upset. Will this be my "Derby Horse"? No, because I dislike pure closers in 20 horse fields, but he might be the right horse running against 11 more here.


3. Grad III $200,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks, Turfway Park, 1 1/8th miles. Synthetic

Points on offer: 20-8-4-2

Favorite: Somelikeithotbrown (8/5) Mike Maker/Tyler Gaffalione - This son of Big Brown is coming off a win in the Mike Battaglia stakes, and has never finished off the board in his career. There's a lot to like here but I'm just not sure he's a Derby horse. At the odds he's likely to approach the post with if he beats me, he beats me.

"Sharp" Favorite: Skywire (3/1) Mark Casse/Gary Boulanger - He's undefeated, has synthetic experience, and has only been racing for about three months. Plus he's trained by Mark Casse, which is a sharps fave-rave right now. I could see him running away with this, but I could also see him collapsing under a hot pace.


My "Favorites"

Five Star General (6/1) Arnaud Delacour/Declan Cannon - While he has never ran on synthetic the connections seem dead set on getting him on there, or at least on turf (which runs more similarly to synthetic than does dirt). We know he's not a fan of dirt, so he's hardly a Derby Horse, but he might just have enough due to breeding and talent to pull the upset here.

Baytown Jimbo (15/1) Paul McEntee/Alexis Achard - Another race where I'm taking a dead closer against type because I see a scenario where this race breaks all the way down and Baytown Jimbo sweeps in and picks off tired horses. Plus, he's done it before on synthetics. Sure to be a HUGE price walking into the gate so it's at least worth a shot.


The "other" race that I would have handicapped this weekend was the San Felipe, but Santa Anita is currently working through some stuff so we might have to review those horses next week in a Split Rebel Stakes.  Were it me, I'd call one the Rebel and the other race the Union.  Just sayin'.


Good luck however you bet.

Kentucky Derby: Looking at the Futures Pool (v 3.0) and the Oaks

Churchill Downs Released the latest futures pool for the Derby, and their first for to Oaks today

This might be your best chance to get decent odds on some horses who are likely to go off at short prices in the Derby, and maybe your best chance to cash a big winning ticket on your horse of choice.

Granted, it's risky, several of the horses on this list won't even MAKE the races in question, but some will.  Here's my thoughts on some key contenders.

Kentucky Derby

1. War of Will (10-1) - This horse already likely has points in hand to qualify, and has looked exactly like I want a Derby horse to look in his prep races so far. He breaks well, gets up into the front part of the race and has a vicious closing kick. Unless he falls apart he's my Derby Choice at this point.

2. Instagrand (10-1) - Possibly the best chance for a Classic winner in the storied career of trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. We'll find out a LOT about this horse in the upcoming Gotham.

3. Game Winner (5-1) - The horse that everyone is enamored with, and the Baffert runner that most experts are picking as the next big thing. I still need to see some more from him, especially how he matures coming into the bigger prep races.

4. Improbable (8-1) - Baffert's "other" horse, that MIGHT be his primary horse if he and Game Winner actually face off in the upcoming San Felipe. I've still got doubts that they do and wouldn't be surprised to see Improbable withdraw last minute to point to the Rebel one week later.

5. Hidden Scroll (12-1) - Yes, he faded in last weekend's Fountain of Youth but his Beyer was a blistering 120. He ran the first 3/4 of the race like his tail was on fire.  Did he just get caught up in a speed duel?  I'm passing, but I wouldn't blame you if shots were fired here.

Note: Field (4-1) - As is usual, at this point in the proceedings we're still in a place where there's a lot we don't know. including which former "curse of Apollo" horses might make an appearance, and there's ALWAYS at least one of the major preps where an upset runner shocks us.


Kentucky Oaks

1. Bellafina (5-1) - After the recent stumble by Jaywalk (more on that later) a bit of a consensus is starting to form around this filly who has won two straight G2 races at Santa Anita after finishing 4th in the Juvenile Filly in the Breeder's Cup last year. I still need to see more however.

2. Chasing Yesterday (8-1) - Since running a head-scratching 7th in the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga last September this sister of American Pharoah has done nothing wrong. She's been working great, is much matured, and should be looking to her next opportunity at the G3 Santa Ysabel where she might get a real test against the Doug O'Neil trained Enaya Alrabb.

3. Enaya Alrabb (15-1) - Doug O'Neil should find out a lot about this Filly in the aforementioned Santa Ysabel. In two stakes races she's hit the board and appears to be improving.  But she also could find herself up against a monster in Chasing Yesterday. If you want to take a flyer on a longshot this could be the place to land, but my feeling is that we don't see her on the First Friday in May.

4. Jaywalk (8-1) - Her stock took a hit in last week's G2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream where she finished an uninspiring 4th against just an OK field. It could be a horse for course situation or one where the race didn't set up well for her (my theory) which poses a big problem. I'm not a fan of horses that need a particular trip to shine. Jaywalk strikes me as that type of filly. That said, it was her first race of 2019 so it's possible that she needed one to get the engines running. Time will tell.

5. Jeltrin (15-1) - The winner of the G2 Davona Dale is sitting mid-pack at 15-1. That tells you a little bit about what observers thought about the race in question. Despite her win I still think she's a notch or two about the bigger racers in this potential field. She might make the Oaks, but I'm unsure if she can win it.

Note: Field (8-1) - Unlike in the Derby, by this time it's usual for us to have a pretty good idea about the potential runners in the Oaks. For whatever reason, it's less likely for their to be an out-of-nowhere late bloomer to appear in the Distaff division.


My Pool Wagers:

1. $100 - War of Will (10-1)
2. $100 - Chasing Yesterday (8-1)

I think this might be your best opportunity to grab odds on these horses that are THIS good. I'm taking advantage of it.

Good luck however you play.

Kentucky Derby: The 2019 Fountain of Youth.

As the calendar rolls to March it's time for the horse racing community to start taking the KY Derby Preps more seriously.  That starts with the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes running Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Of late, this has been a key race, one who's winner has found himself in the gate at the Run for the Roses and has even produced a winner (Orb) in 2013.  Sadly, the winners here haven't been able to replicate Orb's success, but they have figured prominently in the race.

Here's the field with M/L odds, the jockeys and trainers and my thoughts.....


1. Code of Honor [6-1] John Velasquez/Bill Mott - The last time we saw Code he was running a disappointing 4th in the Mucho Macho Man behind eventual winner Mihos and......  And that's the problem with this Bill Mott trained colt who should figure prominently in your exotics but probably doesn't have the class to overcome the top horses here.

2. Epic Dreamer [20-1] Tyler Gaffilione/Kelly Breene - I feel a little for Epic Dreamer, he had a horrible trip in the Springboard, where he finished 6th and then was flat burned out in the Holy Bull, fading to 4th. He's probably going to be one that sets the pace here, and gives the favorites something to run at before falling off the board.  Still, I could see him figuring in the bottom of the superfecta, which makes this a hard race to handicap vertically.

3. Gladiator King [50-1] Juan Mejia/Jose Solorzano - I can't make any serious case for this horse whose betting getting whupped at this class consistently. He lost by twenty-eight lengths at the Holy Bull, and then ran last weekend on the turf, dropping down, as was beaten there. Sorry, I just cannot see it.

4. Bourbon War [10-1] Irad Ortiz Jr./Mark Hennig - One of the problems with horse racing is that you cannot bet early and lock in your odds.  Because, if you could, then this Tapit colt would be a steal at 10-1. No way he goes off at this number. Two races back he finished 4th in what has turned out to be a key race in the G2 Ramsen Stakes, and he most recently won over a solid, but not spectacular field, at the same distance on the same track.  Will he need to improve some to win here? You bet, but that's why they call them longshots.  He's my key horse to upsetting the rather prohibitive favorite that we'll discuss later.

5. Vekoma [7-2] Matt Franco/George Weaver - We haven't seen Vekoma run since last November's Nashua, where he won in workmanlike fashion over a solid field.  That said, this horse is undefeated in two races and have a stalking style that might just play well over this track. One huge caveat: This is his first time around two. That's potentially a problem coming off a freshening for the first time. I'll use him in my exotics, but will wait to see the odds before deciding whether or not to include him as a win contender for entertainment purposes.

6. Signalman [9-2] Brian Hernandez Jr/Kenny McPeek - Ignore this colt at your own peril. He finished 3rd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. He's stretching out in distance here and it's unclear whether or not he's going to fully enjoy that, and there's also the fact that I think McPeek is using this as a prep race for one of the big qualifiers next month, but he's have to really drop in class to miss the board here.  An exotic play for sure, possibly a win play depending on his race-day condition.

7. Hidden Scroll [9-5] Joel Rosario/Bill Mott - Hidden Scroll's best race is a 14-length win over a sloppy Gulfstream Mile back in January.  As we all know, when Gulfstream gets sloppy it favors speed. Not so much when it's dry, and it's expected to be dry and fast on Saturday.  Can he rate? Can he do something besides wire the field?  I'll use him in my exotics, but that's too many questions for me to use him anywhere other than in my exotics.  If he beats me, he beats me.

8. Global Campaign [10-1] Luis Saez/Stanley Hough - I could make a case where this lightly raced colt wins this race, and I'm sure you could as well.  He's the son of Curlin and seems bread for the distance (and more) and he's a powerful looking thing with a beautiful turn of foot. He's talented, but hasn't had the chance to really show what he can do.  That said, if the odds are right I could take a stab at him and he's going to be in the top of my exotics.

9. Everfast [20-1] Chris Landeros/Dale Romans - No matter what happens going forward, the connections of Everfast will always have the Holy Bull to look back on fondly.  The horse famously went off at 126-1 and took advantage of a hot pace to pull off the huge upset.  If you had him, congrats. I don't think he'll get the same trip here but I do think he'll be rolling late and could trip up several vertical exotics if you leave him out.

10. Frosted Grace [30-1] Jonathan Gonzales/Katherine Ritvo - Has one win in five tries and looked a class below in his one shot at stakes competition. If he wins, it's going to be the upset of the day. I just can't see it.  Nice colt that might have a future as a miler, or a lower level stakes winner which could give him a good career.  Needs to be put in the right places and I don't think this is it.

11. Union's Destiny [30-1] Luis Reyes/Juan Carlos Avila - Another horse that I think might have a career at a shorter distance later on.  The problem for me here is that, despite not liking Union Rags as a runner, I typically fall onto his offspring. But I can't do that here. With the outside post and a horse that would need to make a huge leap up to contend I just can't see it.

The trick in the Fountain of Youth is going to be to beat what is assuredly going to be a heavy post-time favorite in Hidden Scroll.  Here's what I'm thinking to do that:

$10 Win - 4 Bourbon War
$5 Win - 6 Signalman
$5 Win - 5 Vekoma

$1 Exacta Box -  7,4,6,5/7,4,6,5

Good luck and may the favorite NOT win.

Horse Racing: Derby Preps Abound!

Saturday is the First Saturday in February. Maybe not as famous in horse racing as "The First Saturday in May" but it could tell us a little bit about who's going to be running for the Roses on May 4th.

There are three major Derby Prep races on the calendar that you might want to consider paying attention to.

Aqueduct: The Withers

Maybe the 'highest profile' of any of these races I've always held a soft spot for this Aqueduct classic. While on paper this might seem like a 3-horse race between Admire, Lucky Lee and Moretti (all making their Stakes debuts, I wouldn't over look Tax who was last seen running third in the Grade 2 Ramsen behind Maximus Mischief and Network Effect, both Derby hopefuls. The bummer here is that Le General seems likely to miss the race due to injury.

Gulfstream Park: The Holy Bull

Speaking of Maximus Mischief, he seems likely to run here against Mucho Macho Man winner Mihos, and the Todd Pletcher hopeful Federal Case.  Again, the chalk is to say that one of these horses is the sure-fire winner but also on the card is the Dale Romans trained Come On Gerry who might be a better value from a wagering perspective. Also interesting, and getting zero buzz, is Mucho Macho Man second place finisher Trophy Chaser, who needs to show some improvement from last time out but who also seems to have the pedigree to do well here. People are still waiting for him to put it all together in a big race.

Santa Anita Park: The Robert B. Lewis

The West Coast prep race provides us with a nice showdown between Jerry Hollendorfer's Gunmetal Grey, who looked spectacular in the Sham stakes, facing off against the Bob Baffert trained Mucho Gusto, who also looked good in the Los Alamitos Futurity.  Looking to spoil matters is Sueno, who finished 2nd in the Sham and Nolo Contesto, the John Sadler trained colt who struggled in his first race but put it all together in his last race to break his maiden and indicate that he's ready to move forward.

Saturday won't tell us WHO will be in the Derby obviously, the big preps are still to come, but it will provide us with some indication as to who won't be.  The current 3YO crop is starting to run out of prep races, and chances to put it all together in advance of the $3MM Kentucky Derby. Earlier a bad race could be overcome, we're getting to the point where horses that don't show something might have to start looking a different way.

I'll do a full breakdown later but, for now, I'll just say that Saturday is going to be exciting.

Good luck however you play.

Horse Racing: Opening Weekend at Sam Houston (and the Pegasus)

Last weekend, for me, was very horse racing centric as the local track celebrated the opening of its 25th year of existence.

Sam Houston Race Park did a fine job with full cards and, unfortunately, formful racing that was capped off with a huge card on Sunday, including six stakes races.

The two marquee races were the John B. Connelly turf, won for the third year in a row by Bigger Picture and the Houston Ladies Classic, won by Mike Smith and Midnight Bisou who had to come from last to first on the home stretch to pull out the win.

Midnight Bisou is trained by Steve Asmussen, who had a huge weekend at SHRP where, on Saturday, it seemed as if every horse he entered was taking down the top prize. That wasn't the case of course, as there were two pretty big upsets on Saturday where his runners didn't fire. Still, he took most of the major awards in races where he had entries.

William Calhoun and Micheal Maker also had good weekends there.

For the horse player, the weekend was mixed. It was, for the most part, formful, so much so that the Late Pick 4 on Sunday only paid out $21 and change. The Mid-card Pick 4 did pay out around $350 however due, in large part, to back to back upsets in the 3rd (Uncle Whitt at 9-1) and the 4th (Too Tall Tony also at 9-1) The early Pick 5 was a good bet as well, if you hit it paying out around $650 to winners.

I, sadly, did not hit on either of those bets. Nor could I hit on either of my shots at the Space City Pick 6, a new "jackpot" pick 6 bet with 12% takeout that should be more popular than it is. On Friday the Pick 6 paid out $429.64 for 6 correct, on Saturday it paid $133.52 for 5 correct (with an $1100 carryover) and on Sunday it paid $390.14 for 6 correct with about a $3500 carryover.

The Space City Pick 6 is at a $.20 denomination with a payout of 25% with multiple winners and the "jackpot" payout if there is a single winner.

I was able to hit on a small-ish late pick 4 at Gulfstream on Friday ($83.60 on a $20 card) and I did hit the late pick 4 on Sunday ($21 win on a $32 card) but I also hit a $10 late daily double that paid out $41 on the two chalk favorites. Midnight Bisou (1-9) and Susie Bee (2-1) which brought me to down around $90 for the entirety of the weekend.

I did hit a small trifecta early on ($8.60 win on a $3 bet) but that was about it.

On Saturday I showed up at the track early, made my Bets for the Pegasus (and the Space City Pick 6) and then went home, did laundry, and watched it all unfold on TV. I thought City of Light was amazing in the Pegasus, and I, like many others, am sad to see him retire just as he's getting interesting.  The next "big" race globally is the Meydan World Cup, which already has an impressive list of nominated horses. (I'm particularly interested in Battle of Midway here, if he runs)

On Sunday the wife and I rented carrels in the player's lounge (A steal at $3 per person) and spent the day there. The bar service was friendly, and we were able to spend a relaxing day betting horses and stargazing. Mike Smith was there, obviously, and he did a meet and greet that we considered, but the line was too long to wait in just to see him, have him sign something and get overcharged for a photo, and we also saw Dave Weaver from TVG.  The wife and I are big fans and we thought about trying to get his autograph, but he was on the phone when we saw him and I'm not one for interrupting people so she settled for a picture.

One nit to pick:

Concessions.  The main 'cafe' on the lower level is really struggling with customer service.  The cashiers who take your order are surly, and the people whose job it is to deliver your food are clueless. This led to confusion, long wait times, and finally one enterprising young man taking over and just having people hand him their order tickets and start fulfilling the orders.  I did not get his name, but he saved the day by eventually just giving up on the lady who was "expediting" the orders (in reality, she was just standing around shuffling the order tickets looking at the food.) and making sure people got what they needed.

I did not see a name tag on him, but he was a young Hispanic man who needs a raise. The lady working as the expediter needs to either be reassigned to another job, or let go entirely. For minutes on end she just stood there shuffling tickets, while a long line of customers stood by waiting for their food.

And, here's the thing, there was plenty of food being delivered by the chefs, it was just her inability to expedite it that was creating the problem.

To be honest the entire operation in that area needs to be re-evaluated, the staff either retrained or not retained, and operations completely overhauled.  That said, when we finally got the food, it was good, so the cooks back there are at least doing their job.

The Player's lounge needs more staff on busy days, but otherwise that's about it. The weekend was enjoyable, entertaining, and we only had a slight loss.

I'll be handicapping Friday's card later this week for a return trip on Friday night. I'll probably get a carrel again in the player's lounge, because I've little desire to be at the public bar on fifty-cent beer night.

Until then....good luck however you play.

Horse Racing: Takeout, not lack of betting options, is the real problem here.

And it's not going to get any better soon....

Racing Roulette, and why it will never work. Bill Finley, Thoroughbred Racing News

A roulette-based horse racing wager can never succeed with a 15.43% takeout. Yes, it was created to appeal to people who might be at the track for the first time and are confused by the pari-mutuel process. Anyone can understand roulette. A few small players and newbies might play it for fun, and, perhaps, it’s worth keeping around for that reason alone.

But no serious handicapper is going to go near a bet where the value is so poor. If $3,000 is bet on racing roulette, $2,537 is returned to the winners. Over the long-term, with a real roulette game that handles $3,000, $2,845 is paid back. That’s quite a difference.

The shame of this is that racing roulette, if it could be done properly, is actually an excellent idea.

To fully understand the folly of this thinking take a look at the following Twitter thread by California Horseplayer advocate Andy Asaro

You CANNOT currently lower the takeout on any wager to 5.26%.  It won’t/can’t happen.  12% is about as low as anyone can currently go.  Maybe 10%. And again it comes down to the TOC fully participating in any reduction because of SB1072

By my way of thinking this boils down to two issues:

1.  Takeout in horse racing is non-competitive with other forms of gaming, and it's been on the INCREASE for the last several years as handle declines.

This, ironically, is the same strategy being deployed by the larger casino groups as their gaming declines. Make the hold higher, the odds worse, and milk the remaining gambler for all their worth at the expense of the owners.

In the end what this does is destroy the value proposition for gambling. Most intelligent people, or at least those with an understanding of math, understand the rather simple concepts of "house edge" and "track takeout". They also understand odds, probability and the fact that the only people who make money, long-term, in casino or horse-betting are the owners of the casinos and tracks.  This math has been solid for a long time, it is rarely changed.

The problem occurs when someone in this value chain gets overly greedy, is not content to let the baked-in house advantage be enough.  This is why you see takeout rising across the land. It is also why you see casino odds getting worse and worse with no end in sight.

Why do they do this?  Because they CAN.  The fact is that most people who are placing a wager of any type are doing so because they either saw it on TV, or in the movies, and think that they can go and "beat the odds" without fully understanding what the odds really are.

One fix for this: Would that the horse-racing "media" (i.e. NBC, Fox, etc.) do a better job explaining to the potential bettor the damage that can be done by breakage (simplified: rounding down on payouts) and takeout.  Have you EVER heard Eddie Olcheck mention either?  Nope, and you won't because there's precious little horse racing media that is not beholden to the tracks, the horse owners and the establishment trainers.

Which, conveniently, leads us to...

2. Track owners, horse owners, trainers etc. place little to no value on the horse player, and in some cases hold them in contempt.

Hall of Fame Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is famous for suggesting that horse racing would be better off without the horseplayer. There are many in the community who feel that to be true. They point to Meydan, heavily subsidized by the Royalty, as evidence of this.  What they ignore is that there IS horse betting going on in the UAE, it's just handled off the books by bookies instead of track windows. It's understood, and allowed, provided it's done under the radar.

In America without betting the horse racing industry would be a thing of the past. Yes, they could rely on slot revenue (or, slot warfare as Twitter user and Horseplayer Inside the Pylons terms it.) in perpetuity, thus limiting and destroying any track in a State not willing to make the expansion, or they could look at real reform, or running in front of small crowds, with seven figure purses going the way of 3:2 blackjack.

Horse racing needs the horseplayer like casinos (still) need the dedicated gambler whether they like it or not. The two have a symbiotic relationship that can either be healthy, or unhealthy depending on management behavior.

Ironically, the decrease in track handle is widely believed to be a major issue for tracks everywhere despite horse players not being "central to the success of the industry". 

Think about that for a minute and then ask yourself why management holds the attitudes that they do/

The only answer you can come up with is that they're not that bright, not that creative and not that serious about solving the systemic problems that exist.

All three are true.

Horse Racing: Sham! (Grade 3 - 01-05-2018 Santa Anita Park

Saturday at Santa Anita we're apt to see one of the more important early Derby Preps as the newly minted 3YO class (all horses are given a birth date of 01/01 for racing purposes regardless of when they were actually born) stretches out to two turns, many for the first time.

2019 Grade III Sham 1 Mile, Dirt. 3YO M

1. Sueno (20-1) Jockey: Kent Desormeaux     Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
2. Gray Magician (4-1) Jockey: Flavian Prat
3. Savagery (10-1) Jockey: Joel Rosario
4. Easy Shot (30-1) Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
5. Coliseum (1-1) Jockey: Joe Talamo
6. Gunmetal Gray (5/2) Jockey: Mike Smith
7. Much Better (6-1) Jockey: Dreydan Van Dyke

There's a lot to unpack in this race. Is Coliseum the monster that some think he is or is Gunmetal Gray just a better horse?  Can someone outside pull the upset? Also, this is the 5th leg of a very difficult Rainbow 6 sequence and the third leg in a difficult Pick 4. Are their plays there you want to consider? Is this your single? (No, it's not)


First off, I see this race as more wide open than many of the other prognosticators looking at it.  To my mind, Coliseum, Gunmetal Gray, Gray Magician, Savagery and Much Better all have a shot to win here, and the people who are taking stands against Coliseum are using some dodgy logic to do so.

That said, Coliseum does not stand head and shoulders above this field and Gunmetal Gray is the most likely candidate to get the win, having ran faster, more often and against better competition in the past.  Those are your top two then. Coliseum and Gunmetal Gray, both should be included in your vertical exotics and in your horizontals if you're playing either the Pick 4 or Rainbow 6. I cannot find any argument to leave either out.

The second tier of contenders in this race all have flaws, but also have the ability to win, if the conditions are correct. Gray Magician is making his stakes debut, coming off a win, a third running behind Derby Contender Improbable and a couple 2nd and 3rd in MSW at Del Mar. He'd need to improve to win here, and certainly could, but for me he's a play in the bottom of my vertical exotics. I will probably omit him from my horizontals and take the chance he's not the horse to beat me. I've of the same mind about Savagery, who seems to be a good horse but to me his best races will be as a sprinter running 7F or less. Joel Rosario will give him a good ride, and he should factor in the pace, but I can't see him lasting against this field. He'll be at the very bottom of my exotics.

The "other" Baffert horse in this race peaks my interest quite a bit.  Much Better ran like he was shot out of a cannon in his first race, and then was inexplicably moved to the turf for races 2 & 3 where he did not run as well.  Maybe the connections were bored?  I also like Red Hot jockey Dreydan Van Dyke at Santa Anita.  He is going to be my long shot horse for win purposes, will feature prominently in all of my exotics and will be in my horizontal bets.

The third tier of this race are toss out horses. Sueno is a good horse, but lacks the quality of the runners above him, and Easy Shot might have a future as a stakes runner later in his career, but he's ran twice, finishing 4th at 5 1/2 furlongs. Maybe I throw Sueno into the bottom of a Superfecta just in case something silly happens, but I think 3rd or 4th would be the cap for him.

Bets:

$10 Win 7 - Much Better

$0.10 Super 7,5,6/7,5,6/7,5,6,1/7,5,6,1

I'll also play the Rainbow 6 and the late Pick 4 but I have not finished my handicapping on those as of yet. As I said, they're tough.

Horse Racing: It's January, So Let's Start the Triple Crown (Over) Hype!

In horse racing there are two seasons, Triple Crown season and everything else. Sure, for people who follow the sport there is much more than that, the Summer races, Fall and Saratoga, the Classics (where we find out if the current 3YO crop is any good when they face older horses for the first time) there's also The Breeder's Cup, which is the "true" championship of horse racing, the Pegasus Invitational, Meydan, Royal Ascot and a host of other International races that get short shrift, but for the general public it's the Triple Crown and everything else.

Part of this is the fault of the horse racing industry itself, over-romanticizing a horse winning three races against restricted competition and then acting as if they're the best thing ever, part of the problem lies with the media who cover the event, acting the same and not fully explaining why the Whitney and the Travers, later in the year, are really better determinants of a horses quality than the Triple Crown.

Even the three races themselves aren't the biggest paying races on the calendar. (I'd rather run a horse in the Travers for example, over the Belmont) In some cases (The Preakness for example) the race is run only as a last gasp to keep racing viable at a track that should have been torn down long ago.

But the Triple Crown IS important. It sets the tone for the year and it gives us a first glance at horses that may, or may not, go on to win some of the bigger world wide races later down the line. It also provides us with a gonzo betting race that's almost impossible to handicap, but which enjoys huge pools every year.

This year is no different, as already we're seeing a promising group of young horses begin to distance themselves from the field. Surprisingly, not ALL of them are trained by Bob Baffert.


1.Game Winner - Not only has he won all four of his races but he's won in impressive fashion, and he already has a win over a horse who looks to be competition for him, beating Gunmetal Gray in the Grade 1 American Pharoah.  He's the son of Candy Ride, with AP Indy in the bloodline on the other side. I thought his win in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile was a great race, although other's were less impressed.

2. Improbable - Another Baffert runner, this one also boasting the exact same connections as Justify, will make this horse decidedly unpopular with the public. That's too bad because he's a beautiful son of City Zip who also has AP Indy on the other side of the breeding line. His win at the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity was a run away, but the competition in that race is questionable. His biggest problem is going to be the specter of Justify, and how his reputation was ruined within the horse community by the circumstances in the Belmont (and butt-hurt bettors) as well as the WinStar/China Horse Club perceived shenanigans afterward.

3.Coliseum - The "third" Baffert entry that I think has a real chance. Yes, he's only raced once (and won, impressively, but we're going to find out a lot more about this colt Saturday in the Grade 3 Sham where he faces Gunmetal Gray, another horse we'll talk about on here and my longshot in the race, the Baffert Trained Much Better (How I'll also mention next)

4. Much Better - Another Baffert horse, but few are giving this one a chance, which I think is a mistake. Much Better ran his first race on dirt, and won handily, then was inexplicably moved to turf where he didn't like the surface as well. He moves back to the dirt for the Sham, where I think he'll do "much better".

5. Maximus Mischief - This Butch Reid trained colt has ran thrice, and won all three. His best run was in the Grade 2 Remsan at Aquaduct, where he ran away from the talented Netrwork Effect and outduled a horse that I really like in mile races in Tax. We'll likely see him next the first weekend in February running in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, always a key prep race.

6. Signalman - This horse has trainer Kenny McPeek written all over him. First, he was relatively cheap (a $32,000 purchase price) and 2nd, he's a grinder whose raced 5 times and has never not hit the board. His biggest disappointment was a 2nd place finish Breeder's Futurity, where Kincks Go shocked everyone winning at 40-1 over Signalman's valiant 2nd place run.  He'll need some luck, don't they all, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets in the field and messes up several bettor's exotics on Kentucky Derby Day.

7.Code of Honor - This horse was considered to be the most likely one to upset the Baffert apple cart before getting boat raced in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes by Complexity. Was that just an aberration? We'll find out Saturday in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, where he's up against a field any legitimate Derby contender should handle. I think he has the quality, but does he have the temperment, especially when things don't go as planned?

8. Vekoma - The scariest thing about this George Weaver trained colt is that he beat the aforementioned Network Effect handily in the Grade 3 Nashua, and did it while running as green as you can get. He was distracted down the stretch, trying to pull the jockey toward the grandstand and he STILL won by air.  He's only ran twice and we haven't seen him around two-turns yet, but he's a talented horse who might make some noise if he can mature a little.

9. Instagrand - If there's a "buzz" horse among the contender's it's this colt, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. He's won both of his two races going away, a 5 furlong MSW at Los Alamitos, and a domination of a pedestrian field in the Grade 2 Best Pal (6f).  He was then shut down for the season by his connections and is expected to race sometime in the lead up to the KY Derby, we just don't know when. The thing about Instagram is that he's fast. He has great tactical speed and has shown a dominating closing kick at the shorter distances. Can he carry these traits to distance? Can he rate? Time will tell.

10. Knicks Go - The shocking winner of the Breeder's Futurity back in October at Keeneland followed that performance up with a solid 2nd place finish at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. He then proceeded to lay an egg in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, also at Keeneland right after Thanksgiving.  Was he just too tired? Do you draw a line through this race?  We'll possibly find out at the Grade 3 Sam H. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on February 9th.

11. Complexity - I'm including this Chad Brown runner in my analysis because of his solid win in the Grade 1 Champagne. Yes, he spit the bit in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile (finishing 10th) and it is concerning that this race was ran on the same track as the Derby with a similar crowd. But Brown is a solid trainer, albeit better on turf, who knows how to prep horses for big races.  Can he bounce back? Do you draw a line through that race?  Time will tell.


One thing we do know is that many of the horse prognosticators are considering sure things won't even make the Derby field the first Saturday in May.  This time last year Justify hadn't even race yet. There will be upsets, horses who just flame out and horses listed above that just aren't as good at distance and two turns as we think they are.

What we are NOT going to do this year is start making any assumptions about the quality of this 3YO crop until they face older horses later in the year.

More importantly, horse racing is about to gear up in a big way for 2019. Starting off with early Derby Preps and then the always entertaining Pegasus.  I'll be taking a look at those horses on here soon.

Bet wisely this weekend and enjoy the year.

Horse Racing: Santa Anita creates "6-Zero Roulette" with a straight face.

Roulette is one of the ancient casino games, probably the first table game that still exists today and, when bet correctly, offers the player a fairly decent house edge.

On a single-zero (European) Roulette wheel the house edge is 2.7%, on a double-zero (American) Roulette wheel that increases to 5.26%, on the travesty that is Triple-Zero (Sands) Roulette the house edge increases to 7.69%.  Given that the addition of a zero appears to add about 2.5% to the house edge the latest "innovation" from the Stronach group at Santa Anita is the equivalent to Six Zero Roulette

From the Press release:

Following are the basic components and rules comprising Horse Racing Roulette at Santa Anita:
–Two dollar minimum win wager with customary industry-low 15.43 percent takeout
–Horses (minimum six-horse field) will be placed into one of three groups, Red, Black or Green.
–In most cases, the morning line favorite will be part of the Red Group.
–The Green Group will be comprised mainly of longshots.
–The three Groups, in most cases, will not have an equal number of horses.
–Whichever Group contains the race winner, wins that “game” of Horse Racing Roulette.

You read that correctly. "Horse Racing Roulette" offers bettors the chance to get an "industry-low" house edge of 15.43%

Are you kidding me?

It's one thing to understand that the takeouts in horse racing are far in excess of the "vig" in sports betting. It's another thing to tacitly admit that without doing anything about it.  But ADVERTISING an inferior game as somehow "gambler friendly"?  This is a new level of incompetence even for the horse racing industry.

An industry with a long history of discounting its horseplayers FWIW.

Now, it seems, that they've gone straight to outright insulting them.

The problem with horse racing is not that there are not enough bet types. It's that their payout structure is horrid when you take into account takeout, breakage (the downward rounding of odds at horse tracks, the profits from which are split between the track and the state to the detriment of the bettor) and the fact that you cannot lock in odds as you can with say, sports betting.

In sports betting, when I lay a bet on a 10-1 underdog I know that, regardless of the line moves, I'm going to get a payout of 10-1. If the opposing team's quarterback gets injured and my team drops to 3-1 it doesn't matter. I'm locked in.

In horse racing, due to the pari-mutual system, that 10-1 underdog I selected might take a slew of money due to scratches or track conditions, and might even drop precipitously to 3-1 or even lower. I am forced to take that payout.

If you think there's no option in horse betting you would be incorrect. On the European exchanges you can lock your odds, you can even take action against what you handicap. We see a little bit of this on the BetFair exchange in New Jersey, but other jurisdictions have been loathe to make the leap. In fact, the tracks don't like this because it helps bettors, and hurts their ability to increase their take due to breakage and other methods.

A better answer to the problem of decreased handle is not creating new, bogus, games that try to mimic better paying casino games, but to lower takeout, eliminate breakage by requiring tracks to adopt standard mathematical rounding rules and to investigate and implement exchange systems which allow horse players to lock odds.

But that is too simple, so it will never be seriously considered. Instead we're about to be given a wild array of fancy new bets I'm guessing.

The BlackJack bet: The 2 & 1 Exacta. - options would include "doubling down" (adding on the 3 & 4) and splitting the 2 & 1 on solo win tickets)

The Craps bet: The 2, 3 & 12 - options include the "Pass Line" 7 & 11 and the "Don't pass" all but 7 & 11 at 8/5 odds

And finally...

The Baccarat Daily Double 8 & 9


All with "industry low" 15.43% takeout, which is a full 15% worse than what the casinos offer.

And you wonder why horse-racing is struggling?