Thursday, June 6, 2019

2019 Belmont DAY: My betting strategy for the 'other' races.

The 2019 race card on Belmont Day at...well....Belmont is HUGE. No fewer than 10 graded stakes races, all of which could anchor their own day.  Unfortunately, that's not where horse racing is right now (more on that later) so instead of getting them all featured they're all going to run in the shadow of the Third (and most gimmicky) leg of the Triple Crown, which means that many fine races are going to go overlooked.

Even I'm not going to spend the time (TBH, I don't have the time) to break down all 10 races, instead I'm going to provide you with my betting strategy for the day here.

After skipping races 1 & 2 I'm going to start dabbling in the 3rd, hoping to catch some prices to build the bank-roll for the races in the heart of the card.

Race 3: $150,000 Easy Goer Stakes. I expect most of the money to be wagered on the 6 -Alwaysmining and the 4 - Outshine.  I'm going to take a different tack and look for somewhat of a price on the 2 - Dream Maker. Trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Julian Leparoux I think this horse has a real chance to pull an upset here. I'm hoping he goes off around 10/1  Bet: $5 Win - 2

Race 4: $700,000 Just a Game Stakes. Almost all of the money is going to be placed on the 4 - Rushing Fall, but I'm going to look toward a different Chad Brown horse the 6 - Environs. I typically like European turf horses better than I do their American counterparts and I'm still getting the best American turf trainer in the business, at a MUCH better price. Bet: $5 Win - 6

Race 5: $700,000 Ogden Phipps Stakes On paper this is a two horse race between the 1 - Come Dancing and the 2 - Midnight Bisou.  I cannot really argue with this but I like the 5 - Mopotism to come in 3rd at a long price which could let the Trifecta pay nicely. At least we hope. Bet: $2 Tri 2-1-5

Race 6: $400,000 Jaipur Stakes. I love turf sprint races, and I love when I can catch a Wesley Ward horse at a price in them. The 8 - World of Trouble is going to be the overwhelming favorite here but I'm going to play against him with two horses, the 1 - Undrafted  and the 7 - Belvior Bay. My hope is to catch lightning in a bottle. Bet: $5 Win 1 and $5 Win 7

Race 7: $700,000 Acorn Stakes. The traditional 3rd leg of the Filly Triple Crown isn't really a thing any more, but this is a good race with some good horses from which I really like the 1 - Serengeti Empress and the 3 - Cookie Dough. I'm going to hope for a speed dual and that my horses pick up the pieces.  Bet: $5 Win - 1 and $5 Win 3

Race 8 - 11:

8: $400,000 Woody Stephens
9: $1,200,000 Metropolitan Mile
10: $1,000,000 Manhattan
11: $1,500,000 Belmont Stakes

I'm grouping all of these races together because, outside of my Belmont wagers that I've mentioned before, I'm probably ONLY going to play the All-Stakes Pick 4.

My choices are as follows:

Race 8: 2-3-4-9
Race 9: 2-3-7
Race 10: 8
Race 11: 8-9-10

$18.00 total

It's possible that, in the Met Mile I'll throw a $5 win bet at the 3 - Mitole, but that depends an awful lot on the post-time odds. Outside of that the plays are odds dependent, so it will probably be the above pick 4 and sit and hope that Bricks and Morter is all that I think he is.


Good luck to you however you bet and enjoy the races.

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