Friday is for the Fillies, the Oaks has been around (under various names) for almost as long as the Kentucky Derby (in fact, the race numbers are the same).
The post draw was Monday, and again Mike Battaglia *snicker* set the ML odds.
Thoughts...
1. Out for a Spin (15-1) Irad Ortiz Jr. - She hit a monster number her last time out but my thinking here is that a replica of that race would be a stretch. Still, Ortiz is a solid jockey and Dallas Stewart has a way of messing things up with long-odds horses.
2. Chocolate Kisses (20-1) Tyler Gaffalione - Why do I like this horse? Because there are a ton of horses in this field who "need the lead" which could create a speed duel that's begging for a closer to come in and pick up the pieces from a tired field. I think Chocolate Kisses is the best closer in this group.
3. Lady Apple (20-1) Ricardo Santana Jr. - Pros: She's 3-3 this year and had a long rest from early racing in her 2YO career. Cons: Her best win is a Grade II and she's never faced horses of this caliber. I think she's a step or two too slow.
4. Bellafina (2-1) Flavien Prat. - The deserving favorite here could be tough to beat. BUT, she's not ran her best races at length and she DID lose over this track at last year's Breeder's Cup race. Still, she's looked GREAT leading up to the race. No way you can ignore her.
5. Flor de La Mar (20-1) Joel Rosario - Last time out she ran a spunky 2nd to Bellafina, but her best has been on fast, firm tracks. It's expected to rain on Friday at Churchill. If she wins it will be at a price, which IS something one rarely hears about a Baffert horse.
6. Positive Spirit (30-1) Manny Franco - She ran a turd of a race at the Fairgrounds, but surrounded that with two really good trips at the same distance. Her problem is the same as Lady Apple, she's never beaten horses of the caliber she's facing here.
7. Jaywalk (8-1) Javier Castellano - Stop me if you've heard this before: Talented 2YO wins like crazy and then comes back as a 3YO and can't replicate the form. That's Jaywalk. The good news is I think she'll take some action, driving up the price of better options.
8. Motion Emotion (15-1) Mike Smith - Speed horse, whose going to have to rely on Mike Smith to out tactic everyone else if she's to have a chance. Her best compliment has been that she's "gritty", something I don't like to play too heavily against G1 competition.
9. Liora (20-1) Channing Hill - IF it rains, you should not discount this horse who ran her best rain over Churchill when the track was sloppy. Channing Hill will be a popular jockey pick on "ladies' day"
10. Champagne Anyone (6-1) - Chris Landeros - A horse that likes to be up front and who has blossomed since acquiring blinkers. Could be a contender here, or at least someone whose going to press Bellafina for the lead.
11. Jeltrin (15-1) Luis Saez - Best win was the GII Davona Dale over a sputtering Jaywalk at Gulfsream. The bad news: That, and every other race she's ran, was a one-turn race. Not a fan of backing a horse their first time around 2 turns against a field as solid as this. Still, another horse that could push the pace.
12. Street Band (15-1) Sophie Doyle - Took advantage of Serengeti Empress her last time out to win the G2 Fair Ground Oaks, but the winner in that race had a medical excuse. It's unlikely all of the other horses will here. She's a closer, but I don't think she's as good as Chocolate Kisses.
13. Serengeti Empress (8-1) James Graham - Until her bleeding issues she looked almost unbeatable. IF trainer Tom Amoss has figured that out then she could potentially run a scorcher here. Ignore her at your peril.
14. Restless Rider (6-1) Brain Hernandez Jr. Lightly raced (only once) in her 3YO season this could be the sharp horse of the race. IF she keeps the form from her two year old season it could be one of the rare occasions where the sharps pick the winner.
AE Dunbar Road (5-1) Lightly raced (only two starts) but has shown promise and could be set to improve should she get in.
AE Point of Honor (30-1) Doubtful she gets in, but could be a pretty fantastic Filly Miler if she needs an alternate career path.
