They just finished the live stream of the post draw, and Mike Battaglia *snicker* issued the ML odds.
Here are the results and a few thoughts.
1. War of Will (30-1) Tyler Gafflione - Brutal post draw for a horse that needs to be on or near the front. If he gets squeezed back as the rail closes his path down early, it's over.
2. Tax (20-1) Junior Alvarado - Also not the best of post draws. He'll have to do something special to win this.
3. By My Standards (20-1) Gabriel Saez - Not the worst post draw for him, but I'm not a fan of closers in this crowded a field.
4. Gray Magician (50-1) Dreydan Van Dyke - Maybe you take a flyer because of the hot jock on board, but he's probably out-classed here.
5. Improbable (6-1) Irad Ortiz Jr. - It does hurt that he's going to be to the inside of Omaha Beach, but if he runs his race he's potentially the most talented of the lot. Ignore him at your peril.
6. Vakoma (20-1) Javier Castellano - He'll be my longshot pick but to be honest I'm not entirely confident given that we're likely to have a sloppy track.
7. Maximum Security (10-1) Gabriel Saez - Like many others, I'm not sure what to make of this horse. I'll probably include him in the bottom half of my exotics but I don't think he's good enough to win.
8. Tacitus (10-1) Jose Ortiz - He's a contender, and is ridden by the current top jock in the US. He'll play in both my horizontals and my vertical wagers.
9. Plus Que Parfait (30-1) Ricardo Santana - Tossing him out. I just don't think he's fast enough to compete here.
10. Cutting Humor (30-1) Corey Lanarie - At most, a bottom of the verticals play.
11. Haikal (30-1) Rajiv Maragh - Good horse, good post position, will need to improve to stay with the best of the best here, but not out of hand if you're looking for a longshot. Could be the "sharp" horse in this race however which might make him too low to play.
12 Omaha Beach (4-1) Mike Smith - What many believe is the best horse in this race has the best big race jockey and great post. You can bet against him, but I wouldn't.
13. Code of Honor (15-1) John Velasquez - I don't love this spot for him, but I do like him being outside of Omaha Beach which means Johnny V can stalk if he so chooses.
14. Win Win Win (15-1) Julien Pimentel - I think Battaglia put this horse too high. The post draw isn't bad but he's going to have to work to avoid massive trip trouble.
15. Master Fencer (50-1) Julien Leparoux - Good story, the first Japanese bred horse granted entry to the Derby. Pretty horse, will ultimately be just too slow. Draw a line through him.
16. Game Winner (5-1) Joel Rosario - The 2 year old champion feels a little bit like last year's 2YO champion who won the Breeder's Juvenile, and then never progressed. I'll use him in my exotics however.
17. Roadster (6-1) Florent Giroux - Not the best post for him, and a post that's never won (0-44) but if any horse can win from here it's the third Baffert horse in the race. In the end though I think he has trip trouble and this becomes a "what if" face for him.
18. Long Range Toddy (30-1) John Court - Good to see Court get a Derby mount, might not be such a good result but you never know.
19. Spinoff (30-1) Manny Franco - If Franco gets this horse a good trip through 19 other horses, given his lack of early speed, it would be the ride of the year.
20. Country House (30-1) Flavien Prat - Seemingly a horse with more hype than ability, I just can't seem him starting way out here and competing.
AE Bodexpress (30-1) Chris Landeros - IF he gets in I wouldn't use him. Has nothing in his past that suggests he's a KY Derby caliber horse.
