I love the NFL Draft. The anticipation, waiting for your team to pick, the reaction when your team finally makes said pick, pre-draft analysis of prospects. It's great.
I HATE what follows, the grading of a current class of NFL prospects prior to the draftees even putting on a uniform.
To illustrate the problems with this I present to you two "then and now" draft analysis from two teams. One team that I root for (The San Francisco 49ers) and one team that I follow and blog a lot about because I currently live in their city (The Houston Texans.)
The draft in question is the 2016 draft, which I use as an illustration because a.) It's three years in the past which has allowed ample time for the rookie class to shake out and b.) It's illustrative of just how many unknowns there really are in the draft process.
Let's start with the 49ers first.
Picks: (I'm using a 5.0 scale to grade players based on their performance in relation to their draft position etc. This is my scale, if you don't like it make your own.)
Round 1(7): DeForest Buckner - Oregon (DL) - Currently a starter and a player who's missed only two games since being drafted Buckner was a Pro Bowl invitee this year. That's pretty much what you want from your first pick in the draft. Grade: A 4.4/5.0
Round 1 (28): Joshua Garnett - Stanford (G) - Frequently injured Garnett is now a "depth" player who does not start. It's questionable how much longer he'll be on the team. You want better from a 1st round pic. Grade: D 1.5/5.0
Round 3 (68): Will Redmund - Mississippi State (CB) - Only spent one season with the team before being cut. Picked up by Green Bay and is currently a depth corner for them. Disappointing for a player many thought would help to build a base. Grade F 0.7/5.0
Round 4 (133): Rashard Robinson - LSU (CB) - Another player that is no longer on the roster, although he is still in the league, playing for the New York Jets. But you want starters in the 3rd round, if not stars. Grade: F 0.5/5.0
Round 5 (142) Ronald Blair III - Appalachian State (DL) - Has turned into a decent back-up/rotation DL for the team which is a pretty good return on a 5th round pick to be perfectly honest. Grade: B+ 3.8/5.0
Round 5 (145) John Theus - Georgia (OL) - Never made the team and never could pick up anywhere else in the league. Currently out of football. Grade: F 0.0/5.0
Round 5 (174) Fahn Cooper - Ole Miss (OL) Never made the team, never played a down, currently out of football. Grade: F 0.0/5.0
Round 6 (207) Jeff Driskel - Louisiana Tech (QB) - Never latched on with SF but is still in the league and played last year as a backup QB for Cincinnati. not too bad for a 6th round pick. But no help to the team itself. Grade: D+ 1.7/5.0
Round 6 (211) Kelvin Taylor - Florida (RB) - Another player who was expected to possibly contribute, but never played a down, and is currently out of the league. Grade: F 0.0/5.0
Round 6 (213) Aaron Burbridge - Michigan State (WR) - Still another "never made the team, never played a down in the NFL" player in this draft. Considering how high the draft was ranked that's unacceptable. Grade: F 0.0/5.0
Round 7 (249) Prince Charles Iworah - Western Kentucky (CB) - To be fair, he did appear in one regular season game, so that's some production. Giving him a flat zero would be unfair for a 7th round pick not projected to make the team (which he did). Grade: F 0.1/5.0
Original Draft Grade: B+
Revised Draft Grade: D- (12.7/55.0) or 1.1545 average points per player.
The thing is, after the 49ers completed this draft the praise could not be lathered on more deeply. Some in the NFL considered this to be a "foundation" draft full of players, from top to bottom, that would help the team from years to come. 3 years later and it feels like a lost draft class.
Next, lets look at the Texans
Round 1 (21) Will Fuller V - Notre Dame (WR) - Fuller has been hit and miss, with his highs being really good and his lows being injuries. Still, he's been a productive player who might grade higher were he able to be healthy more often. Grade: B- 3.2/5.0
Round 2 (50) Nick Martin - Notre Dame (C) - After sitting out his first year he's started every game for the team the last two and is just about the only thing on the Texans offensive line that doesn't need fixing. Good, solid player drafted in round 2, an oddity for this team. Grade: A- 4.2/5.0
Round 3 (85) Braxton Miller - Ohio State (WR) - At this point this pick was considered a possible steal, and while he was given a chance with the team, his potential never materialized and he was eventually cut and is currently out of football. Grade: D+ 1.1/5.0
Round 4 (113) Tyler Ervin - San Jose State (RB) - Mainly a special teams player and deep depth at RB. Still, when you consider his draft position that he's on the team means that he's living up to expectations. Grade: C 2.2/5.0
Round 5 (159) K J Dillon - West Virginia (SS) - Didn't make the team and is no longer in football. Usually the Texans make these types of picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Grade: F 0.0/5.0
Round 5 (166) D J Reader - Clemson (DT) - Snagged via a trade up with the Patriots Reader has become a durable starting interior defensive lineman and is a solid contributor to the defense. That's pretty good return for that position. Grade: A+ 4.6/5.0
Original Draft Grade: A+
Revised Draft Grade: C+ (15.3/30.0) or 2.55 per player.
The thing was, this was considered one of the best drafts of the season, but when you look at the numbers it was certainly above average, but not a home run. Miller and Dillon are the two drags here, but the Texans did manage to find 3 starters, but they didn't have any real stars in this draft. While it was a good draft, it wasn't a GREAT draft by any means.
They also traded up too many times and only had six picks. This was peak Rick Smith although it might have been his best overall draft performance during his tenure.
As you can see above, it's probably recommended that you skip draft grades. As a matter of fact, I think all drafts should not be graded until three years have passed. If you look at the various regrading articles all of them have both of these teams faring worse than initial projections (even if their projections were less rosy than the ones I selected above). Here's just one example:
CBS Sports 2016 draft regrade
So, pay no attention to that draft grader behind the curtain, UNLESS he's providing grades for the 2016 draft.
Because really this is the first year we should be looking at that closely.
