In horse racing there are two seasons, Triple Crown season and everything else. Sure, for people who follow the sport there is much more than that, the Summer races, Fall and Saratoga, the Classics (where we find out if the current 3YO crop is any good when they face older horses for the first time) there's also The Breeder's Cup, which is the "true" championship of horse racing, the Pegasus Invitational, Meydan, Royal Ascot and a host of other International races that get short shrift, but for the general public it's the Triple Crown and everything else.
Part of this is the fault of the horse racing industry itself, over-romanticizing a horse winning three races against restricted competition and then acting as if they're the best thing ever, part of the problem lies with the media who cover the event, acting the same and not fully explaining why the Whitney and the Travers, later in the year, are really better determinants of a horses quality than the Triple Crown.
Even the three races themselves aren't the biggest paying races on the calendar. (I'd rather run a horse in the Travers for example, over the Belmont) In some cases (The Preakness for example) the race is run only as a last gasp to keep racing viable at a track that should have been torn down long ago.
But the Triple Crown IS important. It sets the tone for the year and it gives us a first glance at horses that may, or may not, go on to win some of the bigger world wide races later down the line. It also provides us with a gonzo betting race that's almost impossible to handicap, but which enjoys huge pools every year.
This year is no different, as already we're seeing a promising group of young horses begin to distance themselves from the field. Surprisingly, not ALL of them are trained by Bob Baffert.
1.Game Winner - Not only has he won all four of his races but he's won in impressive fashion, and he already has a win over a horse who looks to be competition for him, beating Gunmetal Gray in the Grade 1 American Pharoah. He's the son of Candy Ride, with AP Indy in the bloodline on the other side. I thought his win in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile was a great race, although other's were less impressed.
2. Improbable - Another Baffert runner, this one also boasting the exact same connections as Justify, will make this horse decidedly unpopular with the public. That's too bad because he's a beautiful son of City Zip who also has AP Indy on the other side of the breeding line. His win at the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity was a run away, but the competition in that race is questionable. His biggest problem is going to be the specter of Justify, and how his reputation was ruined within the horse community by the circumstances in the Belmont (and butt-hurt bettors) as well as the WinStar/China Horse Club perceived shenanigans afterward.
3.Coliseum - The "third" Baffert entry that I think has a real chance. Yes, he's only raced once (and won, impressively, but we're going to find out a lot more about this colt Saturday in the Grade 3 Sham where he faces Gunmetal Gray, another horse we'll talk about on here and my longshot in the race, the Baffert Trained Much Better (How I'll also mention next)
4. Much Better - Another Baffert horse, but few are giving this one a chance, which I think is a mistake. Much Better ran his first race on dirt, and won handily, then was inexplicably moved to turf where he didn't like the surface as well. He moves back to the dirt for the Sham, where I think he'll do "much better".
5. Maximus Mischief - This Butch Reid trained colt has ran thrice, and won all three. His best run was in the Grade 2 Remsan at Aquaduct, where he ran away from the talented Netrwork Effect and outduled a horse that I really like in mile races in Tax. We'll likely see him next the first weekend in February running in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, always a key prep race.
6. Signalman - This horse has trainer Kenny McPeek written all over him. First, he was relatively cheap (a $32,000 purchase price) and 2nd, he's a grinder whose raced 5 times and has never not hit the board. His biggest disappointment was a 2nd place finish Breeder's Futurity, where Kincks Go shocked everyone winning at 40-1 over Signalman's valiant 2nd place run. He'll need some luck, don't they all, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets in the field and messes up several bettor's exotics on Kentucky Derby Day.
7.Code of Honor - This horse was considered to be the most likely one to upset the Baffert apple cart before getting boat raced in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes by Complexity. Was that just an aberration? We'll find out Saturday in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, where he's up against a field any legitimate Derby contender should handle. I think he has the quality, but does he have the temperment, especially when things don't go as planned?
8. Vekoma - The scariest thing about this George Weaver trained colt is that he beat the aforementioned Network Effect handily in the Grade 3 Nashua, and did it while running as green as you can get. He was distracted down the stretch, trying to pull the jockey toward the grandstand and he STILL won by air. He's only ran twice and we haven't seen him around two-turns yet, but he's a talented horse who might make some noise if he can mature a little.
9. Instagrand - If there's a "buzz" horse among the contender's it's this colt, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. He's won both of his two races going away, a 5 furlong MSW at Los Alamitos, and a domination of a pedestrian field in the Grade 2 Best Pal (6f). He was then shut down for the season by his connections and is expected to race sometime in the lead up to the KY Derby, we just don't know when. The thing about Instagram is that he's fast. He has great tactical speed and has shown a dominating closing kick at the shorter distances. Can he carry these traits to distance? Can he rate? Time will tell.
10. Knicks Go - The shocking winner of the Breeder's Futurity back in October at Keeneland followed that performance up with a solid 2nd place finish at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. He then proceeded to lay an egg in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, also at Keeneland right after Thanksgiving. Was he just too tired? Do you draw a line through this race? We'll possibly find out at the Grade 3 Sam H. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on February 9th.
11. Complexity - I'm including this Chad Brown runner in my analysis because of his solid win in the Grade 1 Champagne. Yes, he spit the bit in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile (finishing 10th) and it is concerning that this race was ran on the same track as the Derby with a similar crowd. But Brown is a solid trainer, albeit better on turf, who knows how to prep horses for big races. Can he bounce back? Do you draw a line through that race? Time will tell.
One thing we do know is that many of the horse prognosticators are considering sure things won't even make the Derby field the first Saturday in May. This time last year Justify hadn't even race yet. There will be upsets, horses who just flame out and horses listed above that just aren't as good at distance and two turns as we think they are.
What we are NOT going to do this year is start making any assumptions about the quality of this 3YO crop until they face older horses later in the year.
More importantly, horse racing is about to gear up in a big way for 2019. Starting off with early Derby Preps and then the always entertaining Pegasus. I'll be taking a look at those horses on here soon.
Bet wisely this weekend and enjoy the year.
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