Tuesday marked a new year, which means that everyone is rushing forth with a list of resolutions that you should make because they really, really want you to.
I say forget all of that. This is a gambling blog, we don't do resolutions here. What we do like to do however is take a stab at listing unpredictable events. It's like we're doing a forecast for a corporate Vice President who doesn't understand future tense.
But that's OK, because it's fun to dream.
Sports Betting: My prediction for 2019 is that business is going to pick up, but not as fast as some think.
- First, there's the whole "Federal Government Getting Involved" question that needs to be answered. And despite the fact that the Feds getting involved in something has rarely in history improved it, the gang of functional idiots that we continue to elect to 'represent' us is going to try anyway. Why? Because they see money, and money is the true driving force be hind all politics. Whether it's money to coffers or campaign money Congresspeople and Senators see a big ol' kitty that they can pass along to their political patrons. The States and sports book operators are going to need to ban together to put a stop to this, or the nascent sports betting industry could find itself crippled before it fully gets off the ground.
- Second, lets cool our jets on the whole "30 States are poised to legalize sports betting" nonsense. While it's entirely probable that some States are going to get on board, we ARE talking about State Legislatures here. Typically, State Representatives and Senators are significantly lower on the intelligence scale than their Federal counterparts, they're still in training you see. Several of the 30 states will blow it completely, several others will walk in mud for the entire year, and the few that can actually fog a mirror might pass something that's just barely workable. My prediction is we'll see a stall in State passage until the dimwits in DC figure out what they're going to do.
- Third, existing sports betting States have to get a handle on regulation. Earlier this year FanDuel was allowed by the State of New Jersey to pay out all Alabama Championship bets early. This was a horrid decision that was sold by FanDuel as fan-friendly but which really served only to skew the markets. It should have never been allowed and in Nevada it would not have been. If you're a State that is looking to legalize sports betting, make sure the people who write your regulations and enforce them know what they are doing. If in doubt, copy Nevada.
Horse Betting: I remain a horse player but I have no idea why.
- First, fixing the takeout problem should be the number one issue in horse racing, but it's not even close to the top 100 for the powers that be. One of the reasons for this is that many track presidents and big-name personalities view horse players with a level of contempt typically reserved for ponzi scheme operators. Until the industry comes to the understanding that betting IS the driving force behind the industry they are going to continue to have to rely on supplemental slot machine income (where available) to subsidize the industry.
- Second, the Stronach Group must be stopped. Yes, they've had some good ideas. The Pegasus World Cup Day is growing on me, and they've done a remarkable job with Laurel Park (if only the Preakness could be moved there) but in large part they are the bastions of huge takeouts and slot supplements. It will be interesting to see if they can succeed at Santa Anita, but early returns are not promising. People said "change was needed to they fired most of the things that were right at Santa Anita (the people) and are making the things that are wrong (high takeout, betting structure) worse (Horse Racing Roulette). If this is how they operate sans slot machines racing is in for a time.
- Third, more focus on the later season races and less on the Triple Crown please. I realize this is sacrilege, and many will hate it, but Triple Crown Hegemony is destroying the sport as increasingly large numbers of casual fans totally tune out after the Belmont (or before if no triple crown is one the line) and are all but ignoring the best racing of the year in the Summer and Fall. That horse racing is not strongly promoting the Breeder's Cup as horse racing's championship (yes, they pay lip service but still) is a crime. Ask most people who the "Champion horse of 2018" was and they'll tell you Justify. What he did was great, but Audible was better and should be horse of the year based on resume. Speaking of that: no one will even notice outside of the extremely insular horse racing community.
Las Vegas: The place I call "home" is increasingly becoming less and less homely.
- First, something has to be done to get the casinos to understand that dog-shit odds, poor pay-tables coupled with high fees is not the path to profitability. I'm not arguing that we return Vegas to a mythical "value destination" but something needs to be done to return some feeling that customers are getting some value. High resort fees that offer little in the way of amenities, which are in reality room rates stated a different way to keep search results artificially cheap, Concession "fees" which are a joke, and service fees for spas and other amenities of which a portion the casinos keep are driving people away. It seems like they finally saw the light on parking fees, or are starting to, hopefully they get it on the other fees as well. Also, about some of those prices......
- Second, can we please have 2019 be the year that 3-zero Roulette dies the rotten and ugly death that it deserves? The same goes for 7/5 Double Double Bonus Video Poker pay-tables on the strip, or the best games being 6/5 bonus at the quarter level (the games most patrons play). I'd include 6/5 blackjack on this list but I understand that the end of that abomination is going to take a lot of heavy lifting because it's much more entrenched. Right now I'd settle for a roll-back on Roulette, better VP pay-tables and that blackjack doesn't get worse to the tune of 11/10, which I'm afraid we're going to see very soon if things stay the same. Gambling odds always favor the house. Players know this but they're willing to take the chance if they feel there's a CHANCE they can win. By making odds worse on the popular games (I won't even get into Penny slots because, well, they are never going to get better) Vegas is stripping away all of the fun and reason to play, on the Strip anyway. The bad thing is we're starting to see this disease infect downtown. Horrid.
- Third, gotta get a handle on that crime Vegas. I'm not referring to the events of October 1, which were horrid, I'm talking about two people getting murdered at Circus Circus, in their room because a thief was allowed to come up and enter rooms. I'm talking about people getting shot, robbed, mugged, assaulted on a semi-regular basis IN TOURIST AREAS. The 1970's in Vegas were a horrid time because people did not feel safe on the streets. The city and business leaders are letting those days come back into being and it's threatening to add even stronger headwinds to a city that should be doing much better than it is when you consider the economic times. Remember: Casinos are starting to show signs of strain during the GOOD times, what happens when the next recession comes? Get with it y'all.
- Fourth, can we all go ahead and agree that the 'Interactive gaming' and 'esports' things were busts? That all of the work trying to fix the so-called millennial problem were misguided? OF COURSE millennials like to gamble, they just do it in more social ways. When you see someone in my generation (X, if you're wondering) gambling you're likely to see three people playing side-by-side at slot-machines, video-poker terminals or in chairs at a table. If you see three millennials gambling you'll find one playing, and two cheering them on. It's social for them. They want to win, and immediately post that win to social media. On that note how about loosening up and letting people take pictures of their wins, or video their slot play. If your security experts can't tell the difference between someone trying to record wins and play for fund and someone doing it for nefarious purposes they need to go back to training.
In short, I think that 2019 is going to see the gaming industry get worse, before it starts to get better. But there will be signs of life. Already we're hearing reports that casinos are considering lowering resort fees, room rates, and some casinos, even on the Strip, are making a big deal about having better odds. This is a huge plus and a trend that I hope we see continue as the months roll by.
For sports gaming we'll see more "wait and see" than actual change, but there will be a LOT more coverage as it continues to go mainstream. Obviously, some of this will be good and some will be really, really bad. An unlisted challenge for sports betting is going to be the tout industry, and toning down sports betting "experts" who can be some of the most unlikable, unflinchingly judgmental people in the world. Attracting casual bettors could be a chore.
Horse racing has the same problem. The horse industry is very insular, and not very welcoming to outsiders. Horse track regulars are a surly lot, more likely to curse at someone for what they perceive is a bad bet than celebrating a good one. Horse tracks themselves continue to treat patrons as if they're entitled to them.
For me, personally, 2019 will be a continuation of 2018. I do plan on making one less trip to Vegas this year over last however, not because of Vegas but because there are a couple of other places I plan on going. I might even incorporate some trip blogging on this blog.
To all of you still reading, I wish you good fortune, good luck, good eating and good drinking the entire year. May you spend most of it with the ones you love.
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