Churchill Downs Released the latest futures pool for the Derby, and their first for to Oaks today
This might be your best chance to get decent odds on some horses who are likely to go off at short prices in the Derby, and maybe your best chance to cash a big winning ticket on your horse of choice.
Granted, it's risky, several of the horses on this list won't even MAKE the races in question, but some will. Here's my thoughts on some key contenders.
Kentucky Derby
1. War of Will (10-1) - This horse already likely has points in hand to qualify, and has looked exactly like I want a Derby horse to look in his prep races so far. He breaks well, gets up into the front part of the race and has a vicious closing kick. Unless he falls apart he's my Derby Choice at this point.
2. Instagrand (10-1) - Possibly the best chance for a Classic winner in the storied career of trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. We'll find out a LOT about this horse in the upcoming Gotham.
3. Game Winner (5-1) - The horse that everyone is enamored with, and the Baffert runner that most experts are picking as the next big thing. I still need to see some more from him, especially how he matures coming into the bigger prep races.
4. Improbable (8-1) - Baffert's "other" horse, that MIGHT be his primary horse if he and Game Winner actually face off in the upcoming San Felipe. I've still got doubts that they do and wouldn't be surprised to see Improbable withdraw last minute to point to the Rebel one week later.
5. Hidden Scroll (12-1) - Yes, he faded in last weekend's Fountain of Youth but his Beyer was a blistering 120. He ran the first 3/4 of the race like his tail was on fire. Did he just get caught up in a speed duel? I'm passing, but I wouldn't blame you if shots were fired here.
Note: Field (4-1) - As is usual, at this point in the proceedings we're still in a place where there's a lot we don't know. including which former "curse of Apollo" horses might make an appearance, and there's ALWAYS at least one of the major preps where an upset runner shocks us.
Kentucky Oaks
1. Bellafina (5-1) - After the recent stumble by Jaywalk (more on that later) a bit of a consensus is starting to form around this filly who has won two straight G2 races at Santa Anita after finishing 4th in the Juvenile Filly in the Breeder's Cup last year. I still need to see more however.
2. Chasing Yesterday (8-1) - Since running a head-scratching 7th in the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga last September this sister of American Pharoah has done nothing wrong. She's been working great, is much matured, and should be looking to her next opportunity at the G3 Santa Ysabel where she might get a real test against the Doug O'Neil trained Enaya Alrabb.
3. Enaya Alrabb (15-1) - Doug O'Neil should find out a lot about this Filly in the aforementioned Santa Ysabel. In two stakes races she's hit the board and appears to be improving. But she also could find herself up against a monster in Chasing Yesterday. If you want to take a flyer on a longshot this could be the place to land, but my feeling is that we don't see her on the First Friday in May.
4. Jaywalk (8-1) - Her stock took a hit in last week's G2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream where she finished an uninspiring 4th against just an OK field. It could be a horse for course situation or one where the race didn't set up well for her (my theory) which poses a big problem. I'm not a fan of horses that need a particular trip to shine. Jaywalk strikes me as that type of filly. That said, it was her first race of 2019 so it's possible that she needed one to get the engines running. Time will tell.
5. Jeltrin (15-1) - The winner of the G2 Davona Dale is sitting mid-pack at 15-1. That tells you a little bit about what observers thought about the race in question. Despite her win I still think she's a notch or two about the bigger racers in this potential field. She might make the Oaks, but I'm unsure if she can win it.
Note: Field (8-1) - Unlike in the Derby, by this time it's usual for us to have a pretty good idea about the potential runners in the Oaks. For whatever reason, it's less likely for their to be an out-of-nowhere late bloomer to appear in the Distaff division.
My Pool Wagers:
1. $100 - War of Will (10-1)
2. $100 - Chasing Yesterday (8-1)
I think this might be your best opportunity to grab odds on these horses that are THIS good. I'm taking advantage of it.
Good luck however you play.
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