Yes. I know, the Santa Anita news is sucking up most of the horse racing oxygen. But there are still three pretty important prep races this weekend that deserve your betting attention NOT named the San Felipe.
1. Grade II $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby. Tampa Bay Downs Race 11. 1 1/16th Miles. Dirt.
Points on offer: 50-20-10-5
Favorite: Well Defined (7/2) Kathleen O'Connell/Pablo Morales. - The winner of the "other" early Tampa Bay Prep Race, the Grade III Sam F. Davis returns to the site of his biggest victory trying for the back-to-back, and probably enough points to qualify outright should he win. He's the only returning starter from that race however and faces a field of 11 new shooters.
The "sharp" favorite: Dream Maker (4/1) Mark Casse/Florent Giroux. - Took some time off after hoof injury in the Grade I Breeder's Futurity, but won his return race by 8 1/2. Has a good post draw (4) and almost everyone is expecting him to replicate his form here.
My 'favorites':
In races like this I like to try for a price. The 3 YO field is still defining itself as we sneak closer and closer to the major prep races and these are the ones where we usually have a better chance of finding an upset.
Tacitus (12/1) Bill Mott/Jose Ortiz - Why do I like Tacitus? Because of his breeding for one (Tapit/Close Hatches) which makes him the half-brother of Justify. I also like the connections with Mott Training and Jose Ortiz in the irons. Yes, this is his first real test against Graded Stakes competition but you have to play angles like that in races such as this if you want to find a price.
Admire (12/1) Dale Romans/Robby Alvarado - Similar to Tacitus, this horse will need to improve greatly to win here but he does have a 2019 race under his belt and he has proven that he can make the distance. He's been around two turns before, which many of these horses haven't. That said I really like him at longer distances (read: The Belmont) but I'll be taking a stab here.
2. Grade III $300,000 Gotham Stakes, Aqueduct, 1 Mile. Dirt.
Points on offer: 50-20-10-5
Favorite (Both Square and sharp): Instagrand (4/5) Jerry Hollendorfer/Jose Castellano - He's won two sprints, by a lot, and he seems to be bred to make a mile. It's telling to me that Hollendorfer has decided to keep him around one turn. I'm not yet sold that he's a horse that can stretch out, and I've a feeling that he's going to have his best career as a sprinter because he can be tail-on-fire fast.
The Head-scratcher: Much Better (5/1) Bob Baffert/Mike Smith - Where in the world does Much Better fit? Is he a turf horse? (His Breeder's Cup Turf result would say no) or a dirt Classic horse? We're going to find out a little bit in this race but I think his best situation might be in dirt miles going forward, which is why I might use him here if the odds are right.
My 'Favorites'
Much Better (see above)
Haikal (10/1) Kieran McLaughlin/Rajiv Maragh - A pure closer in a race where the pace is expected to be hot. He's ran down the fields in shorter races and a lot of his chances will be determined by Maragh's ride. But. IF he gets a blistering pace in front of him I could see a scenario where he comes like a freight train down the stretch and mops up many tired pieces for a long upset. Will this be my "Derby Horse"? No, because I dislike pure closers in 20 horse fields, but he might be the right horse running against 11 more here.
3. Grad III $200,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks, Turfway Park, 1 1/8th miles. Synthetic
Points on offer: 20-8-4-2
Favorite: Somelikeithotbrown (8/5) Mike Maker/Tyler Gaffalione - This son of Big Brown is coming off a win in the Mike Battaglia stakes, and has never finished off the board in his career. There's a lot to like here but I'm just not sure he's a Derby horse. At the odds he's likely to approach the post with if he beats me, he beats me.
"Sharp" Favorite: Skywire (3/1) Mark Casse/Gary Boulanger - He's undefeated, has synthetic experience, and has only been racing for about three months. Plus he's trained by Mark Casse, which is a sharps fave-rave right now. I could see him running away with this, but I could also see him collapsing under a hot pace.
My "Favorites"
Five Star General (6/1) Arnaud Delacour/Declan Cannon - While he has never ran on synthetic the connections seem dead set on getting him on there, or at least on turf (which runs more similarly to synthetic than does dirt). We know he's not a fan of dirt, so he's hardly a Derby Horse, but he might just have enough due to breeding and talent to pull the upset here.
Baytown Jimbo (15/1) Paul McEntee/Alexis Achard - Another race where I'm taking a dead closer against type because I see a scenario where this race breaks all the way down and Baytown Jimbo sweeps in and picks off tired horses. Plus, he's done it before on synthetics. Sure to be a HUGE price walking into the gate so it's at least worth a shot.
The "other" race that I would have handicapped this weekend was the San Felipe, but Santa Anita is currently working through some stuff so we might have to review those horses next week in a Split Rebel Stakes. Were it me, I'd call one the Rebel and the other race the Union. Just sayin'.
Good luck however you bet.
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