Friday, May 19, 2017

In honor of Preakness Weekend: My favorite Afleet Alex (2005)

How this horse managed to win is beyond me.

Top 3 performance that I've seen in my lifetime.  Right behind Arrogate in this year's Dubai World Cup, and Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness herself.

As far as this year's Preakness goes I'm still working on my picks. Here's the post draw and M/L odds.

1 – Multiplier (30-1)
2 – Cloud Computing (12-1)
3 – Hence (20-1)
4 – Always Dreaming (4-5)
5 – Classic Empire (3-1)
6 – Gunnevera (15-1)
7 – Term of Art (30-1)
8 – Senior Investment (30-1)
9 – Lookin at Lee (10-1)
10 – Conquest Mo Money (15-1)

I expect Always Dreaming to go off somewhere around 1/5, the Derby winner almost always does if it's a horse that entered the race well thought of, which Dreaming did. (He was the post time favorite after all).

As is usual in the Preakness the object is to review the numbers, find a horse that's an overlay, and try to beat the favorite.  If the favorite beats you, you accept that and look to the Belmont.

I don't think there's any way Classic Empire gets an awful trip like he did in the Derby, so I'll be using him.  My long-shot play still needs some work however.  Right now I'm leaning toward Cloud Computing, Multiplier and Hence on the inside.

I will use Always Dreaming prominently in my exotics.

Good luck whichever way you go.

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