Wednesday, September 6, 2017

2017 College Football: The (belated) debut of the FIVE

That bastard Harvey cancelled week one, but we weren't washed away and my family was very fortunate in that we didn't have any significant damage which places us a lot better off than many in the Houston area.  There are many people in my home town hurting right now.  If you have the ability, please donate to help with the aid.

I would suggest JJ Watt's fundraiser which has been an amazing story.

JJ Watt Foundation Fundraiser

Alternatively, you can donate to the Houston Food Bank

Houston Food Bank

Or, if you're an animal lover as am I, the Houston Humane Society would welcome your donation as well.  I would also like to plug Austin Pets Alive! which has taken in over 200 dogs and cats from the Houston Area.

Austin Pets Alive!

Houston Humane Society

Houston will come back from this, but it will be a changed city in many ways.  Some of which we probably cannot expect.

OK, on to less important things:

1. Oklahoma State (-28 or 28.5 depending) vs. South Alabama. I'm pretty high on South Alabama this year and despite the fact that OSU looked REALLY good last week against Tulsa, I don't see their defense being strong enough to just allow them to dominate a pretty good USA team. Plus, they're on the road which is a place that they do not typically perform as well as they do in Stillwater.

Pick: South Alabama to cover +28 (But I would bet at a William Hill book if I could because you're getting +28.5 which is huge)

2. Ohio at Purdue (-4 or -3.5 if you're betting at Caesars) Purdue is getting brownie points for not looking bad last week at home against Louisville. This week they go on the road against a well-coached Ohio team that I think pulls the upset.  Coach Frank Solich has one of his best teams at Ohio in years.

Pick: Ohio on the ML (if you can get it in Vegas. Avoid Caesars if you're taking the points)

3. Iowa (-2.5) at Iowa State. I know, I know, this is a rivalry game that is "always close" except that it's not. The last two years Iowa has destroyed the Cyclones and it hasn't been close. Given that Iowa is returning a ton of talent and Iowa State is in chronic rebuild mode, I think you have a recipe for another whuppin'.

Pick: Iowa to cover -2.5 (The line here seems to be consistent among the major books so take your pick)

4. South Florida (-17.5 or 18 depending) at UConn. Again, I understand, USF has looked BAD so far this season. But if they can't get it right against a pathetic UConn team then Charlie Strong might not get it right and USF could be in for trouble. The Huskies looked terrible against....Holy Cross. At the beginning of the year I picked USF to run the table and be in a NY six bowl game. If they don't show signs of improvement here I'm bailing.

Pick: USF to cover 17.5 - Avoid the Wynn on this unless you're fading and taking UConn.)

5. Oklahoma at Ohio State (-7 or 7.5 depending) In what feels like the biggest game of the week I think there's value to be had in the Sooners.  TBH, I'm unsure at this point if Ohio State can score enough to beat OU by 7.  Urban Meyer's offense is struggling right now, and the Sooner machine seems to be picking up steam.

Pick: OU to cover +7.  I would go to either William Hill or Wynn however to grab 7.5 before the line falls further.  Ideally you would have grabbed this at -9 when it opened, but that ship's sailed.)

I'll do a run-down of some of the top games, including Michigan and the Desert Rug Rats (UNLV) tomorrow.

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