Winning a conference game on the road is no easy thing, and several teams go in as big favorites to do just that. I'm not predicting too many upsets this weekend but it would not surprise me in the slightest to see on (or three) happen.
It's also Red River
Texas State @ Louisiana - Lafayette (-13.5) T: 55.5
We kick off Thursday night football with two teams that are entrenched at the bottom of college football rankings. Whether you prefer CBS' bottom 25 or ESPN's Bottom 10 both teams either are in the lists weekly, or are hovering around the fringes. The thing is, neither team should be THAT bad. Both are in good college towns (San Marcos is what Austin used to be before the latter sunk into a fug of body odor and political consultants and Lafayette is in the heart of Cajun Country) that happen to be in a fertile recruiting area where even picking up 3-Star recruits and coaching them up should make you competitive. The loser of this game probably has a shot at winning the title of "worst team in the FBS" at year's end. Prediction: Texas State 9 ULaLa 17
Clemson (-21.5) @ Syracuse T: 56.5
Friday brings us two ACC schools whose programs are headed in different directions. Clemson is my top team in the Country while Syracuse is struggling to rebuild from shambles under 2nd-year head coach Dino Babers. It's Thursday, on ESPN so the Carrier Dome should be loud, for about 3 minutes. After that the Orange will be purple, black and blue. Prediction: Clemson 52 Syracuse 7
Washington State (-14.5) @ California T: 55.0
The late Friday night game gives us a very good football team coached by a very odd man in Washington State versus a California team that is......? To be honest I'm not sure. After starting the season 3-0 it was thought the Bears might have something but then we realized they beat UNC, Weber State and Ole Miss. Ugh. The Golden Bears are finishing up a brutal run of schedule where they played USC, Oregon, Washington and now Washington State in back to back to back to back games. They should be a tired team by this point. Prediction: Washington State 42 Cal 24
Florida State (-7) @ Duke T: 44.5
Did the Miami Hurricane break the Blue Devils? I'm starting to think so as this team looked awful against a fairly pedestrian Virginia team. The bad news for Duke is that the Seminoles seem to be on the cusp of "putting shit together" after a brutal start that saw starting QB Francios end up injured and a true Freshman with the build of a willow branch take his place. The Seminoles are sorting it out however as the win last week against the Hurricane has revealed. Prediction: Florida State 38 Duke 10
Texas Tech @ West Virginia (-3.5) T: 76
My gut feeling is that both of these teams are overrated by quite a bit.The Mountaineers have lost to every good team they have faced (Virginia Tech and TCU) while beating up on one FCS foe and two FBS bottom-feeders. Texas Tech on the other hand will point at their win over UH and jump up and down swearing to all who will listen that this proves they're "good". The problem with this logic is that the Cougars, at that time, were still figuring things out post Harvey and outside of a loss to Okie State, they have nothing else to hang their hats on. Finding out these two teams are smoke and mirrors could really hurt the currently inflated image the Big XII is enjoying. Prediction: Texas Tech 42 West Virginia 45 (I would take the over here)
TCU (-6) @ Kansas State T: 52
At the beginning of the season I stated that Kansas State was one of the more overrated teams in the country when they were ranked #19 in both the AP and
Virginia (-4) @ North Carolina T: 50.5
It was not all that long ago that North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora was being held up as "the next coach to be given a job at a power school". Now there's serious talk that he could be done as the head man at North Carolina if he doesn't turn this mess around. There's also the question of how a so-called "quarterback guru" could find himself with so many bad ones. While I'm not entirely sure yet what to make of the Cavaliers I'm pretty sure Bronco Mendenhall is a good head coach. With that in mind I lean Virginia here. Prediction: Virginia 28 North Carolina 10
Northwestern (-4) @ Maryland T: 51.5
All things being equal, I'd take Maryland in a game between two teams that I projected to finish in the bottom half of their divisions within the B1G this year. That said, all things aren't equal and I think Maryland is going to be a very beat up team after taking a walloping at the hands of Ohio State last week. Yes, Northwestern played Penn State, but they hung with the Nittany Lions for 3 quarters, which should give them some confidence. Prediction: Northwestern 24 Maryland 20.
Oklahoma (-7.5) @ Texas - Austin T: 65.5
Ah the Texas State Fair, aisles and aisles of cheap beer, fried food and a big dallop of rivalry football smack dab in the middle. Even though I have no rooting interest, this game is one of my favorite to watch every year. You have two teams that genuinely do not like each other playing for bragging rights and a shiny gold cowboy hat that looks good on no one when they inevitably put it on. Both teams are fairly even on talent, but OU has a much better QB, both teams appear to be even on coaching but OU might, just might, come in angry for this one after getting embarrassed by Iowa State last week, at home. Prediction: OU 35 UT - Austin 20
Auburn (-7) @ LSU T: 44
After beating Florida last week the alumni have stopped clawing at Coach Orgeron's heels, for now. Beating Auburn would go a long way to silencing them for the rest of the season. I think Auburn's defense is nastier, and their offense is slightly less dysfunctional. That said it's hard to walk into Baton Rouge and escape with a win, unless you're Troy, on homecoming and LSU pays you almost a Million to do so. Prediction: Auburn 17 LSU 16
Texas A&M @ Florida (-3.5) T: 51.5
I'm probably not going to watch this game for one reason: Florida's "swamp green" uniforms are evil and a pox on football and they should be punished for that. That said, I think the Aggies need this game desperately if Sumlin is going to keep his job after the season. Given that I said I think he won't be the head coach at Aggie after this year, you can guess which way I'm leaning. A bigger problem for the SEC is that this is the second game that's got #gosec terrible game between two sub-par teams written all over it. Prediction: aTm 10 Florida 16
Washington (-18) @ ASU T: 57
In between feuds with ESPN and Kirk Herbstreit over the relative weakness of their schedule, Washington has been just as good as I thought they would be so far this year. Outside of an opening week performance against Rutgers (which, they still won) they've handled everything in front of them fairly easily. Arizona State meanwhile has been up against much tougher, and have struggled to a 2-3 record while doing it. Fans of Rice University and the Marching Owl Band will be happy to know that this is going to be another stop on the Todd Graham farewell tour. Prediction: Washington 42 ASU 13
Oregon @ Stanford (-10.5) T: 58.5
This game is the "first game out" of my FIVE. I really like the Ducks here at that line but I'm not entirely sure about them with QB Hebert out. Stanford's offense does one thing really well, that's run the ball with Love. When SDSU shut that down the Cardinal were all out of answers, will Oregon be able to ask the right questions? Not this year methinks. Prediction: Oregon 24 Stanford 34
Utah @ USC (-12.5) T: 53
You won't hear a lot of people say it but these two teams are awfully similar. Utah was cruising along undefeated until getting upended by Stanford. There were warning signs of this however when they barely beat a bad Arizona team the week before. USC was cruising along undefeated until being beat by Washington State. There were warning signs of this however when they barely beat a bad Texas team a couple of weeks before. This game is huge for both team's plans to make the Pac-12 Championship Game as the loser is out barring something silly happening. I typically trend toward the team with the better QB when all things are equal. Prediction: Utah 17 USC 31
Games involving teams I have some connection to.
Houston (-13.5) @ Tulsa T: 66
If head coach Phillip Montgomery doesn't turn this Tulsa mess around rapidly he's going to go from the top of the P5 candidate pile to coaching for his job next year. Houston has bounced back from that confusing loss to Texas Tech by finding a quarterback in Kyle Postma and looking much better. The next two weeks after this feature Memphis and USF for the Cougars so they better not sleep on the Golden Hurricane. Prediction: Houston 24 Tulsa 7
UNLV Desert Rug Rats @ Air Force (-7.5) T: 46.5
After being outclassed by SDSU last week UNLV heads to the Air Force Academy to play a team that's smarting from a hard-fought loss to the Naval Academy. This is going to be a tough game for the Desert Rug Rats to win and could see them drop to 2-4. The good news is the schedule gets much easier after this and an 8-4 finish with a bowl bid is still very possible. Air Force has lost out on the Commander in Chief's trophy and has yet to beat an FBS team, it's only win coming over FCS member VMI. Call me insane, I like the Rug Rats here. Prediction: Desert Rug Rats 35 Air Force 31
And Finally......
Michigan (-8) @ Indiana T: 56.5
OK, OK, I know. You're not laughing with me you're laughing at me. Last week's loss to Michigan State was a gut punch that I probably saw coming, I even stated as much when writing up the game. That said, I chose to be optimistic and pick Michigan to win over State. The challenge for the Wolverines this week is to not let Michigan State beat them twice. I am more frightened of this game than any other I've been worried about this season. All season long I've hated Michigan's lines. This week is no different.
Prediction: GoBlue 24 Indiana 23.
Outside of the South, it should be a gorgeous weekend. Take advantage of it, on Sunday. Thursday, Friday and Saturday there's football watching to do.
Good luck.
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