Wednesday, October 4, 2017

College Football: The Week Six FIVE

For the first time since week one the FIVE experienced a winning week. Unfortunately, for the first time this season I lost a game for Bet The Rent. In fact, I lost both games on the newsletter lowering my record to a still-respectable 7-2 for the season there. 

My 3-2 FIVE finish elevated my season total 7-11-2 which means by combined season total is just peeking above .500 at 14-13-2.

Not exactly a profit turner but still on-par with most "tout" sites if you truly count their results.  We're starting to roll a little bit now and I have a better feel for these games which, historically, means that you should probably start fading if you're so inclined. As always, you get what you pay for if you're taking betting advice from an oil and gas accountant in Houston.

Standard Disclaimer:  The lines presented below are accurate at the Westgate Superbook at the time of publication (Wednesday) to the best of my ability to determine.  Lines may change after time of print, so I try to address that.  I judge my results off of the odds I present here, which would be where I would bet them (If I bet them) Shorter: Do your research folks.

On to the games (plus, a bonus)

1. Eastern Michigan @ Toledo (-13.5)  T: 60.5

The Eagles started off strong against pretty bad teams, and then had a falling off against Ohio and Kentucky.  While Toledo feasted on FCS Elon, beat a pretty bad Nevada team by 13 and eeked by a puzzling Tulsa team by 3. I think Toledo is the better team, especially at the Glass Bowl, but this line feels good to me because a.) EMU has a solid team and b.) their style of play.  I see EMU keeping this close.  Pick:  Eastern Michigan to cover +13.5  (Maybe stay away if the line dips under 13 but I don't think it will)

2. Miami (-3.5) @ Florida State  T: 48.5

The Hurricanes blew away (sorry) a pretty good Duke team last week on the road, while Florida State needed a beautiful pass by their Freshman QB to beat Wake for their first win of the season. Yes, Talahassee is a tough place to play and yes the Hurricanes don't have the best record there but there is something terribly wrong with this year's Seminole's and I don't think they can fix it in one week. Pick: Miami to cover -3.5 (If anything, I see this number moving more toward the Canes)

3. Tulsa @ Tulane (-4)  T: 58.5

Golden Hurricane head coach Tim Montgomery has been on the short list of coaches in line for a big program for two years now. This year he's in danger of falling off as Tulsa has lost every game except one, against Louisiana-Lafayette including a head-scratcher against New Mexico. I hinted, in my pre-season review of the AAC that the Green Wave would be much improved under 2nd year head man Willie Fitz and might make a bowl. This game is central to those hopes. I think Tulsa is a fundamentally flawed team and Tulane should handle them at home. Pick: Tulane to cover -4. (I think this number might drop in the coming days so it might pay to wait here. You might even grab -3 if patient.)

4. Louisiana - Lafayette @ Idaho (-7) T: 64.5

In what is likely the last FBS season for Idaho (they've announced plans to join the FCS Big Sky conference) the Vandals from Moscow (IA) appear to be on-pace to possibly make 2nd consecutive bowl under head man Paul Petrino. Meanwhile, the Rajun Cajun's are suffering, and it's questionable whether their starting quarterback plays this week or no.  Could be big times in the Kibbe Dome this weekend. Pick: Idaho to cover -7 (I keep half expecting this line to drop toward ULaLa but it seems to be holding on. Beware that drop though)

5. K-State @ Texas-Austin (-4)  T: 50.5

You can call this the "haven't beaten anyone" bowl because neither of these teams has a quality win against a quality opponent. Texas-Austin lost to Maryland, beat an awful San Jose State team, lost in "gritty" fashion to USC (which might not be as good as we thought) before hanging on against an Iowa State team that gave up 44 points to an Iowa offense that can barely tie it's shoes. Meanwhile, K-State feasted on FCS Central Arkansas and FBS bottom 10 member Charlotte before losing to a Vanderbilt team that lost 58-0 to Alabama before beating a winless Baylor team.  UT-Austin gets the nod from the linemakers because they are home. I think this is a close game decided at the end by a field goal.   Pick: Kansas State to cover +4 (I would love for this line to move down to 3 so wait and see)


Arkansas State (-9.5) @ Georgia Southern  T: 55

I'm only including this because it's the official start of FunBelt football on Wednesday evenings.  Yes, Georgia Southern is bad right now and what head coach Tyson Summers has done to a once proud team is borderline negligent, but the Red Wolves are a pretty salty group and I still say it's too early to close the book on the Eagles. Losses to Auburn and Indiana are forgivable, and while the one at New Hampshire hurts it's just one game.  Arkansas State has played a brutal early season schedule losing to Nebraska and  SMU while being spared a drubbing at the hands of Miami (FL) due to that bitch Irma. The game is in Statesboro so there's that.  And Wednesday night FunBelt football is always worth a peek. That said, I think the Red Wolves are the much better team. Pick: Arkansas State to cover -9.5  Also, the OVER)

As a reminder, the bonus game does not count toward the stats in my FIVE. (But, if you must, you can hold a loss against me, I don't know you so it doesn't matter.)

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