Into life, a little sadness must fall.
With 40 (!!) games on the bowl schedule it's only natural that a dog or three is going to squirm into the mix somewhere. Unfortunately, we're going to have to get through these games to get to the good stuff. That said, sometimes the games we think are going to be unwatchable turn into some of the more fun games of the year so let's see.
But first, a recap of Part I: I went 9-3 over the first six games which is not half bad.
I don't have much hope for this first bowl however.
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl. 7 PM ET. Tuesday, Dec 19th.
[10-3] Florida Atlantic (-22.5) vs. [7-6] Akron. T: 64.
Pity the poor Boca Raton Bowl, whose first choice of teams were off the board before they even got to make a selection. They tried, grabbing home-town FAU which should assure a good crowd, but got stuck with Akron who are projected to be nothing more than fodder for the Owls. Like him or not Lane Kiffin can coach offense, and his FAU Owls are very, very good at it. They ran the table, and won, in Conference USA and I'm predicting they have no problems with a Zips team that backed its way into the MAC Championship before being blown out by Toledo. Zips head coach Tommy Bowden says that this time it's all about improving the lives of young men. He's going to have a good chance to teach them how to deal with a blowout loss with class methinks. Still, this game is on a Tuesday night and if it gets bad you can always watch Christmas specials.
Pick: Florida Atlantic to cover -22.5 and OVER.
DXL Frisco Bowl, 8PM ET. Wednesday, Dec 20th.
[6-6] Louisiana Tech vs. [7-5] SMU (-5) T: 70
SMU is the favorite in this game, but I'm unsure how a team that lost Chad Morris and downgraded significantly in the coach's office to Sonny Dykes should be viewed as such. It's an open secret that Dykes wants the Texas Tech job once held by his father, in fact, it's rumored that Cal let him go because he was too open in politicking for the same, but his overall coaching record is sub .500 and I've yet to see any evidence that he's all that good of a coach. On the other side Louisiana Tech has Skip Holtz, another legacy coach who's not as good as Daddy, but probably better overall. What Dykes will have is one of the best WR tandems in the country in the persons of Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn. Louisiana Tech counters with Teddy Veal and Rhasheed Bonette. Both defenses are porous and rely heavily on getting turnovers. That said, I think there are severe motivation concerns for SMU, which could lead to this being a dog of a game.
Pick: Louisiana Tech to win on the ML and UNDER.
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. 8PM ET. Thursday, Dec 21st.
[6-6] Temple (-7) vs. [8-4] Florida International T: 56
This game, named after a Pirate, not a flower, is the second chance for the American conference to prove their "Power 6" gap over the remaining Power 5 conferences. But Florida International, coached by Butch Davis, has a better than average chance of upsetting the American apple cart, as teams have the past few years. In fact, since starting the power 6 marketing campaign last year the conference has gone 2-5 in bowl games. that's not very good considering they view themselves as vastly superior to the other four "non-power" conferences. After the SMU game above I think they'll find themselves in yet another hole and they're going to look to Temple to bail them out. I see this as a high(ish)-scoring affair and a close one. I think the spread of -7 is ludicrous.
Pick: Florida International to COVER +7 and OVER.
Bahamas Bowl. 12:30 ET, Friday December 22nd.
[8-4] UAB vs. [8-4] Ohio (-7.5) T: 56
Regardless of the outcome of this game the story of the UAB Blazers is one of the feel-good stories in college football this year. Having shuttered the program 2 years prior due to oppressive rulings from the parent University in Tuscaloosa which made competing difficult, the Blazers listened to public outcry and reestablished college football this year. With a new conference (Conference USA) and the same coach (Bill Clark) the players and business community raised the funds necessary and revived the team, which is rewarding them with a bowl game and successful season. They square off against an Ohio team that I picked (incorrectly) to win the MAC but who stumbled down the stretch and didn't even get to play in the championship game. For the Blazers, Freshman RB Spencer Brown is a star in the making but he's going to be facing a Bobcats defense that stuffs the run, but is vulnerable to the pass. The question will be whether UAB can pass the ball enough to score against Ohio, and whether their defense can stop a Bobcats running attack which is by committee, and keeps running out fresh legs.
Pick: UAB to COVER +7.5 and UNDER.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. 4:00 PM ET. Friday December 22nd.
[7-5] Wyoming (-1) vs. [8-4] Central Michigan. T: 44.5
I would not be surprised at almost any result in this game, other than a blowout one way or the other. Both teams have over-hyped quarterbacks (Wyoming has knicked-up Josh Allen [who might not play] while CMU has former Michigan signal caller Shane Morris) who have failed to live up to expectations. Both teams have trouble moving the ball and, most importantly, converting on 3rd down. Both teams have bend but don't break defenses who are excellent at getting turnovers. On the streaky front, CMU is hot (winning five out of their last six) and Wyoming is stone cold (losing their last two) and neither offense is what you call stellar. Still, 44.5 is a ridiculously low line for college football. In games like this it comes down to coaching, and I like Wyoming's Bohl over Central Michigan's Bonamego to develop a winning game plan in just under 4 weeks.
Pick: Wyoming to COVER -1 and OVER.
We'll do a post later in the week examining the weekend games, including one of the games that I think might be THE non-playoff game to watch this bowl season.
Enjoy the games.
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