College Football: It's Bowl Season!!!!! (Part III)

Consider this group of bowls an early Christmas gift.

It's filled with games that, despite only featuring one Power 5 team, have the potential to be some of the better games of the bowl season, IF both teams decide to show up.

With that, let's get to the games.


Birmingham Bowl. 12:00 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 23rd.

[6-6] Texas Tech vs. [9-2] University of South Florida (-2)  T: 66

The secret to this game being entertaining is whether or not South Florida shows up. We already know their fan base isn't motivated, and it's not all that clear the team is either.  That said, Texas Tech should be happy to be in any bowl given their recent history.  The eyeball matchup in this game is USF's Sr. Quarterback Quentin Flowers vs. Tech signal-caller Nick Shimolek. Last year Flowers put on a show in this very same bowl game, a 46-39 overtime win over South Carolina. Both teams can score a ton, and both defenses are suspect. IF USF shows up willing to play this game could hit the over by halftime. I have a sneaking suspicion Flowers will be ready, and he'll make the rest of the Bulls ready to play as well.  It doesn't hurt that some will (wrongly) view this game as an NFL audition for Flowers.

Pick: USF to COVER -2 and OVER. (Way, way over)


Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. 3:30 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 23rd.

[10-2] San Diego State (-6.5) vs. [9-3] Army  T: 46.

Minus 6 1/2 for a favorite is what's known in sports betting parlance as a "good line".  And this is a doubly good line because I think SDSU's rush defense is strong enough to put the brakes on Army's run it or nothing triple option. This game is also probably your last chance to see Aztec RB Rashaad Penny before he heads to the NFL. IF he plays that is. It's also a chance to enjoy, and appreciate, service academy football one more time this season. After this game all of the Seniors move on to graduate and fulfill their service commitments. Unfortunately my thought is they go out to NavyTown in a loss. (Despite beating Navy and winning the Commander in Chief's Trophy)

Pick: SDSU to Cover -6.5 and OVER


Dollar General Bowl.  7:00 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 23rd.

[8-4] Appalachian State vs. [11-2] Toledo (-7.5)  T: 61.5

Remember in Chapter II when I said this next chapter would include what I feel is a very underrated match-up?  This is that game. Toledo won the MAC Conference and features QB Logan Woodside, Appalachian State won the SunBelt and features QB Taylor Lamb. Both are excellent QBs and both have talent around them.  I think the difference in this game is the Mountaineer's ability to run the ball against Toledo's pillow soft run defense. Also, and this might be a little controversial, but I believe the tip-top of the SunBelt was better than the tip-top of the MAC this year.  Shoot out coming though. One last thing, + 7.1/2 is also considered a "good line" in sports betting parlance.

Pick:  Appalachian State to COVER +7.5 and OVER



Hawai'i Bowl. 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, Dec 24th.

[9-4] Fresno State vs. [7-4] Houston. (-2.5)  T: 49.5

If for nothing else, this game is worth watching to get one last chance to see Ed Oliver play. Houston's Defensive End is a monster and will certainly be a high first rounder should he stay healthy next year and bolt to the NFL Draft. He's that good. Jeff Tedford has done a good job with the Bulldogs this year, Houston has played much better since head coach Major Applewhite figured out that a quarterback with skills like D'Eriq King is required to properly run their offense. For the Cougars also this will be the last game for Stefen Bonnar III and Lance Dunbar, possibly the best WR tandem in college football this year. It's hard to tell what the motivations for both teams will be, but if both come to play then the Cougars have better dudes than Fresno. Third game today with a "good" number FWIW.

Pick: Houston to COVER -2.5 and UNDER.


And that gets us up to Christmas.  After the Hawai'i Bowl it's presents and egg-nog and too much food and finding ways to ignore the NFL game on Monday (Texans vs. Steelers??? Yuck) Still, the NBA is typically pretty good on the 25th or you could do the unthinkable and spend the day with your family.  The latter is my plan.

Merry ChristmaHannuKwanzolstis to all of you.