Thursday, May 17, 2018

2018 Preakness Stakes: Justify and the rest?

It's time for the 2nd Jewel of the Triple Crown and we're only talking about eight horses this time and not 20. (Thank Goodness)

Justifiably, Justify will be the hyped horse after his impressive win in the slop at Churchill. It's supposed to be rainy again at Pimlico so many of the same handicapping plays work here as well.

Handicapping this race comes down to whether or not you're a believer in the big colt or no.

Here's the field with post positions, morning line odds, jockeys, and my thoughts on the field.

Quip 12-1 F. Giroux  - Qualified for the KY Derby via his Tampa Bay Derby win, but his connections decided to wait for the Preakness which they feel is a better fit for him.

Lone Sailor 15-1 I. Ortiz - Finished eighth in the KY Derby, wasn't really a factor but didn't run poorly.  Would need to improve massively to compete here

Sporting Chance 30-1 L. Contreras - Finished 4th in the Pat Day Mile. Speed horse from D. Wayne Lukas who might be looking to set a hot pace for Bravazo to try and sweep up.

Diamond King 30-1 J. Castellano - Winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes, the Preakness prep race for local horses in Maryland

Good Magic 3-1  J. Ortiz  -  Ran second in the KY Derby losing to Justify by 2 1/2 weeks. Unusual move for trainer Chad Brown to make the Derby/Preakness turnaround so he might bear taking a close look at.
Tenfold 20-1 V. Espinoza - Didn't qualify for the Derby on points and ran poorly against Grade 1 competition. Will need to improve mightily to figure in the top placings.

Justify 1-2 M. Smith - KY Derby winner. Same story in the Preakness as the Derby, you either believe in Justify, or you don't. I do.  He will be my key horse.

Bravazo 20-1 L. Saez - Ran a respectable 5th in the KY Derby.  A purse closer which is why I think the entrance of Sporting Chance by trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who also trains Bravazo) is notable

Good luck however you bet this race.

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