This Saturday is the 159th running of the Queen's Plate at Woodbine. Not only the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, the oldest continually ran race in North America but also one of the toughest races to handicap that you'll find all year.
There are two things that make this race difficult to figure out. First, it's ran on a Tapeta surface, something a lot of horses in America aren't used to, and 2nd, it's limited to Canadian-bred 3 year old horses only. This means that you get a wide array of horses with varying levels of experience competing.
At times, even past performances and speed figures aren't much help because horses improves, like/hate the synthetic surface their first time on it or just didn't travel well. Unlike the KY Derby, there's no prep-race season to really fall back on.
There are, however, usually favorites to win, and you can make money if you can either look past them and pick another winner OR, figure out the exotics.
Here's the field with post positions, M/L odds and comments:
1. Boyhood Dream (30-1) - This horse has only won one time at the MCL $30,000 level but he is trained by Mike Maker and that should indicate that you don't totally ignore him. Compared to many in this race he's run, a lot, but he's not been all that successful doing it. IF he improves he could compete for the minor awards and wouldn't be a bad idea to throw in on the back half of your exotics. But even massive improvement probably doesn't get him to the level of the other horses.
2. Cooler Mike (30-1) - This horse won his first at 7f but then struggled in two races at this 1 1/16th distance before winning his last race at the same at Woodbine. His Grandpa is Giant's Causeway, which suggests that he should be able to make the distance. His win last time out included beating Neepawa, whose witting at much lower odds down the board. Might be worth a play, definitely worth looking at in the exotics.
3. Inge (30-1) - This colt won his last race of 2017 at 7f but hasn't won since. He also hasn't finished outside of the top 5 but looks to be a little over matched here. He's a pure speed horse who should find himself up front but has a history of tiring and against horses of the quality he'll be facing I don't think he'll have the stamina to go the distance. In fact, I'm leaving him out of my exotics because I think he'll find himself way, way back.
4. Strike Me Down (10-1) - In every race their is a "sharp" horse that gets bet down to unusual levels and it's sort-of confusing as to why. IMO Strike Me Down is that horse for the Queen's Plate. For one, he's trained by Graham Motion, which always makes bettors happy and two, he's never finished lower than 3rd. This is an improving horse that might be peaking at just the right time. Two back he ran a game second to top contender Dixie Moon and he won the last time out at the same distance over the same track. Yes, he'll need to improve, but is there anyone better than Motion in this race to get him there?
5. Silent Poet (30-1) - Having Ghostzapper and Sunday Silence as granddads suggest that this hose has the pedigree for the distance but he's never shown the ability to get there in the past. He's won two sprints, and finished 2nd at Woodbine. I just don't see him getting the distance despite pedigree evidence he can do so. Not against this field.
6. Real Dude (50-1) - This horse has pedigree, and that's it. He's only ran twice, and came in off-the-board and 3rd. Against much worse company than this. It's possible that trainer Sid Attard and owner Frank Stronach know something we don't but they're going to have to prove me wrong here.
7. Dixie Moon (4-1) - One of the two fillies in the race that are in with a huge chance at pulling off the win. She's got three stakes races under her belt and a tough 2nd in a 4th. She's beaten the other filly in the race (Wonder Gadot) twice. She's a daughter of Curlin which bodes well for the distance, and her speed. I like this horse a LOT here. She's also never lost at 1 1/16ths or longer.
8. Alternative Route (20-1) - This is an improving son of Tiznow who won his best race on the synthetic track at Turfway Park. He's got the speed and distance in his pedigree to compete here but will need to improve significantly to pull off the win. But he's been targeted for this race by his trainer so I'm expecting to see his best on Saturday. Definitely a play in my exotics and probably my long-shot play for the win.
9. Say the Word (20-1) - The only reason that I can see to back this horse is that he's one of the two in the race trained by Graham Motion. Outside of that? He's a tough, grinding style of horse with a propensity to finish in the top 5, but rarely in the top spot. He'll be in the lower portion of my exotics but not much else. It would require a BIG jump for him to win this against these.
10. Telekinesis (5-2) - Trainer Mark Casse has three horses in this race and this is his best shot at winning. He's ran 4 lifetime, winning two, and never finishing out of the top three. He's a son of Ghostzapper which is a popular stud in Canada. He's got the tactical speed to stay on the lead but I do worry that a hot pace in this race might sink his stamina. I'll use him in my exotics, but he's not my pick to win.
11. Wonder Gadot (3-1) - This daughter of Medaglia D'Oro has ran eleven times and won twice. But in her non-winning starts she's finished either 2nd or 3rd behind some of the top fillies in the world 7 times. Her lone stinker race was the 2017 Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly, where she ran 6th. She's also lost twice to Dixie Moon. But, despite that, I like her here. The hot pace is going to help and she has back-class that is unmatched against this field. This is my key horse in the race and will be all over my tickets.
12. Pawnbroker (50-1) - Pawnbroker is a horse that's in this race solely because of the unique restrictions for the Queen's Plate. He's a maiden (never won) who only has one start at the MSW level going 6f where he finished 4th against much lesser competition. If there was a bet for the horse that would finish dead last I would pick Pawnbroker. That doesn't mean that this son of Gio Ponti won't eventually develop into a solid horse, but he's up against it here.
13. Marriage Counselor (50-1) - Here's the BEST case that I can make for Marriage Counselor. In his five lifetime races his finish has been 12th - 6th - 3rd - 3rd - 1st. The last race was a MSW at Woodbine at the same distance, as with Pawnbroker however it was against much less than he'll face here. All of his pedigree screams sprinter. But I don't think he's got enough tactical speed to challenge for the lead against this group.
14. Neepawa (15-1) - This is a half-brother to Justify out of Scat Daddy but the similarities end there. He's a decent horse whose best days might be alter on running mile races in Class II or III Graded stakes. I just can't see him being too much of a factor here as a horse that is a pure, late closer. Maybe he can climb up and mess up my tri or superfecta but if that happens then I'll tip my cap to Florent Geroux. (who is one of the top riders at Woodbine, that should be mentioned) Just not enough horse under him this time around.
15. Aheadbyacentury (15-1) - This is the Canadian 2-year old champion which means that he's running against the Coronation curse. Since that race he's never won, but has finished no lower than 5th in all 5 of his other starts. The problem is, he's also been beaten a couple of times solidly by other horses in this field. Bottom half of the exotics type because if you leave him out and he messes you up, you'll regret it. There are too many horses in this field to leave off for him to be one of them.
16. Rose's Vision (12-1) - In his last two races he's ran both ahead, and way behind, Aheadbyacentury but he's also lost to Telekinesis and Dixie Moon. Seems to get stronger as the races get longer so stamina shouldn't be an issue. Tactical speed might however as this horse might find himself too far out of touch. His worst race was the GIII Marine Stakes at Woodbine where he ran 6th, against a fairly pedestrian field. This one is going to take some money due to finishing 2nd in the Plate Trial, but I'm taking a stand against.
And, that's your field. My level of preference is as follows:
11 - 8 - 7 - 10
Betting this race I'm planning the following:
$10 Win - 11
$5 Win - 8
$1 Exa Box: 7-8-10-11 ($12 Total bet)
$0.10 Supr: 7,8,11 with 7,8,10,11 with 7,8,10,15,16 with 4,7,8,10,15,16 ($14.80 Total Bet)
As you can see I'm keying on the 11, and then going as wide as I think could lock in a profit on the bottom half. I toyed with putting in the 2 in 3rd or 4th but that just drove the price up too high for profitable comfort.
Good luck to you however you choose to wager.
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