I love Summer/Fall horse racing. The distraction of the Triple Crown is out of the way and we start to point to the weekend of joy that is the Breeder's Cup. From "win and you're in" qualifying races to just really good Grade 1 Stakes ties it's the best time to be involved in the game that the public doesn't know about.
Which brings us to this Sunday's running of the Haskell Invitational, a "win and you're in" race for the Breeder's Cup Classic.
Your 6-5 Morning Line Favorite is 2 YO Champion (and Kentucky Derby runner-up) Good Magic. Going against him will be several horses whose names should be familiar to even casual racing fans.
Here's the line-up with post-position, morning line odds and jockeys.
1. Lone Sailor (Joe Bravo) 5-1
2. Navy Commander (Angel Arroyo) 12-1
3. Roaming Union (Albin Jimenez) 10-1
4. Core Beliefs (Flavien Prat) 4-1
5. Bravazo (Luis Saez) 3-1
6. Good Magic (Jose Ortiz) 6-5
7. Golden Brown (Jairo Rendon) 15-1
And here's my horse-by-horse rundown of the race....
1. Lone Sailor (Joe Bravo) [5-1] - Lone Sailor's last race was a disappointing 2nd (as a 3-2 favorite) in the Ohio Derby on June 23rd. During that race he had a perfect inside trip and the lane opened up in front of him in the stretch. He was beaten by a nose by Core Beliefs who had a much longer trip running out in the 3 path all race long. He's a tough little horse and local native Joe Bravo picks up the mount so he should gain from some local knowledge. The thing is I just don't think he's enough horse to win, but you might want to include him in your exotics.
2. Navy Commander (Angel Arroyo) [12-1] - Trainer Butch Reid is rolling the dice with the improving Navy Commander. The horse was gelded in 2017 and his been much better since that point. However, this is without argument the toughest "field" he has faced (I would argue Ax Man is the best horse he has faced). I think you can draw a line through his last place finish in the Gr III Sir Barton on Preakness day at Pimlico. The slop and fog were not to his liking. Since that race he won an allowance race at Philadelphia park against not much. Despite everything I think the best thing for this horse is to try and find a prop bet where you can choose who finishes last.
3. Roaming Union (Albin Jimenez) [10-1] - If you're looking for a horse to set the pace Roaming Union might be it. He's got some tactical speed, as he showed in the recent Pegasus (no, not THAT Pegasus, the other one) Stakes in Monmouth on June 17th, but he faltered to finish 2nd at a mile and 1/16th so I'm not sure what makes people think he's going to have the stamina to go another furlong. He's got good pedigree, Union Rags on the Top/Bernardini on the bottom, but I don't think he has the class to compete with the top horse in this field.
4. Core Beliefs (Flavian Prat) [4-1] - In 2018 Core Beliefs has finished 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 1st so leave him out of your exotics at your peril. The thing is, the list of horses that have beaten Core Beliefs is a spectacular one: Justify, Bolt D'Oro, Blended Citizen, Once on Whiskey and Curly's Rocket. He flat out dueled Lone Sailor in the Ohio Derby and a speed duel did him in at the Peter Pan. He'll be near the front of this race, probably with Roaming Union but I don't think the latter has the tactical speed to wear him down as did Just Whistle in the Peter Pan. This is my key horse in the race for that reason and because I love his pedigree coming from Quality Road who is proving to be a better Papa than he was a Stakes runner. I'll be using Core Beliefs heavily in all my wagering.
5. Bravazo (Luis Saez) [3-1] - Bravazo's best race on a track that wasn't a swamp was the long-ago Risen Star in February 2017. Since then he's ran OK, but has appeared outclassed against top graded stakes competition. I think he's the 3rd or 4th best horse here and I expect him to run about the same. His odds are too low to take a shot on, and will be at post time because he's a D. Wayne Lukas horse and the betting public still has a soft-spot in their hearts for Ol' Wayne. Except in my exotics, I'm passing.
6. Good Magic (Jose Ortiz) [6-5] - The 2 Yr Old champion Good Magic has looked like the exact same horse that won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Classic in November 2017. That's not exactly meant as a compliment. Physically if you go back and watch that race it appears the horse has not matured to the same level as other 3 year old horses that were in that race. He's still plenty good, I think he'll come in second. His best race of 2018 was the Blue Grass Stakes at this same distance. I think he'll lay just off the pace and excellent rider Jose Ortiz will likely try and time his run. The problem is I don't think he'll be able to get by Core Beliefs.
7. Golden Brown (Jairo Rendon) [15-1] - Golden Brown is a hard horse to handicap. His last race, the Grade III Kent, at Delaware Park, saw him a runaway winner at 1 1/8 miles on TURF. Prior to that his races were all sprints, on dirt. He did beat some good horses in the Kent however in the form of Carrick, Hot Springs and Untamed Domain. Maybe it just took the connections a while to figure out that this is a horse who wants to go long? Maybe the Kent was an outlier? His pedigree is a mixed bag as well (Daddy Awflee Wild's best race was at a Mile and a quarter, Mom Suzee Sunrise was a sprinter.) I'm going to include Golden Brown as my long shot play because whether it was the dirt or the turf I don't think you can fully discount his run in the Kent.
Wagers:
$10 Win 4 - Core Beliefs
$5 Win 7 - Golden Brown
$1 Tri Box 4-6-5-7 ($12)
Clearly I would love to see the 7 sneak into the trifecta to bump the odds a touch. I'll also play the Late Pick 4 on Sunday but I probably won't do a $.10 Super as usual because of the small size of the field. Unless there's an upset I think payouts are going to be a little on the smallish side.
Good luck to you however you wager.
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