Here....we....go....
I've already given a lot of thoughts on this season so let's just dive in. (All odds from William Hill** sports book unless otherwise noted)
The Week One FIVE*:
1. Northwestern @ Purdue (-1.5) [52].
Pick: Purdue to cover
Call me crazy but I really like the Boilermakers in this situation. Northwestern is always better at home than on the road and there's optimism in Purdue this year which should make for a fairly raucous home field advantage. NW 10 Purdue 24
2. Syracuse (-5.5) @ Western Michigan [64.5].
Pick: Western Michigan to cover
I'm a fan of Orange coach Dino Babers, and I think he's doing a good job turning around the mess of a program that was left to him. But I think Western Michigan has enough talent to keep things very close, especially at home. Syracuse 24 Western Michigan 23.
3. Army @ Duke (-13.5) [45.5].
Pick: Army to cover and win on the ML
I will admit to being a little shocked when I saw this line. Army is not chopped liver, and Duke is not exactly a world beater. I expect the Black Knights to control the ball and have success with the triple option against Duke. I'm even picking this to be an upset. Army 28 Duke 21.
4. Colorado (-7) @ Colorado State [66].
Pick: Colorado to cover
Some might write off last week's performance against Hawai'i as an aberration but I saw real problem's in Colorado State's team that I think Colorado can exploit. I don't think the Buffs are going to be as bad as everyone thinks. Colorado 38 Colorado State 24.
5. Ole Miss @ Texas Tech (-2) [67]. (You can get -3 at Caesars)
Pick: Ole Miss to cover and win on the ML
Death, taxes, and Texas Tech is overrated to start the season. I'm not a huge fan of Matt Luke as a football coach but I think he's better than the male model masquerading as a head coach in Lubbock. Calling the "upset" here. Ole Miss 42 Texas Tech 24
Other games/lines of interest.
Florida Atlantic @ OU (-21) [68.5]. - Call this the "Six" because this was the first game out of the FIVE. Lane Kiffin's offense is going to give OU's defense fits. Leaning heavy on the over here but I'd like the number to drop down a point or two by game time.
Houston (-25) @ Rice [55.5]. - The score of this game is going to be whatever Houston wants it to be. I wouldn't be surprised to see something along the lines of 62-0 Cougars. Rice is that bad.
UMass @ Boston College (-19) [63]. - A team that's got some talent on offense against a team that's all defense with no offense to speak of. Take the under.
Wake Forest (-6) @ Tulane [55]. - You can get -7 at Wynn, if you're inclined to take Tulane with the points. I would. This is year three of the Willie Fitz era and Tulane is going to be better than people think.
Utah State @ Michigan State (-23) [51] - Some are saying that this Utah State team is going to be pretty good. I don't see it. And we KNOW that Michigan State is going to be good. I expect Sparty to lay down a marker here in their home opener.
San Diego State @ Stanford (-14.5) [49]. - It's hard to play at the Farm. Watch for Bryce Love to run wild in this game against an SDSU defense that has some questions.
Oregon State @ Ohio State (-36) [64] - You could make this line -50 and I wouldn't bet against the Buckeyes here. This is a team that's going to pull together after what they've been sold is a hatchet job on Urban.
Kent State @ Illinois (-16) [55]. - Yes, it's Kent State, but it's also Illinois. I don't have faith in either of these teams so this game is a layoff for me.
Texas (-13.5) @ Maryland [57]. - Last year Maryland beat Texas, ran all over them. I don't THINK Tom Herman lets that happen again but you never know. While I'm not buying into the Longhorn hype that others are this year I do think the Longhorns are better than the Terps. The question is by how much?
Washington @ Auburn (-1.5) [48]. - You can grab -1 at the Wynn, which I would do because I like Auburn in this situation.
Tennessee @ West Virginia (-10) [62] - Two teams that are enigmas wrapped in riddles burnt on couches. I think the Mountaineers are the better team, and I'll definitely be watching the game, but I wouldn't bet on either team yet until we know more about them.
Washington State (-1) @ Wyoming [47]. - You can get -1.5 almost everywhere else in Vegas if you like the Cougars. I actually like Wyoming here but not enough to pull the trigger on the upset call. Mike Leach teams start slowly and Wyoming's defense is something serious. That said, Wazzu is much more talented than is NM State. Pass.
North Carolina @ California (-7) [61]. - Larry Fedora's team needs to tackle hard to save the republic, and California is still rebuilding. Another game between two teams that I don't trust but will be keeping an eye on to see what each has. You can get -7 almost everywhere else in Vegas depending on your lean.
SMU @ North Texas (-4) [71.5]. I THINK North Texas is overrated by many pundits but I didn't want to take a stand against a team that does have some offensive talent the first week in my FIVE. I do like SMU some, and North Texas some. I think this might be the game of the weekend that few watch but everyone swears they saw.
Miami (-3.5) @ LSU [48]. The first step in the "Ed Orgeron loses his job" 2018 season.
Virginia Tech @ Florida State (-7) [57]. - I'm high on the Hokies this year, but Florida State still has a tone of talent, they just have a new coach and new system to work out. The marquee game for ESPN this week should be exciting and a fun watch.
Games involving teams in which I have a rooting interest.
UNLV @ USC (-26.5) [64]. - The Desert Rug Rats kick-off what I think will be a pivotal season. They can't win here, but they could cover which would be a win in and of itself. Head Coach Tony Sanchez needs to make a bowl this year. He's got the offense to do it, but defense MUST improve. USC is breaking in a true Freshman quarterback and has a lot to replace. How good are they?
And Finally.....
Michigan @ Norter Dame (-1) [47]. - My HOPE is that Shae Patterson comes out, proves himself the real deal, and Michigan walks out of South Bend, Indiana with a win and a springboard toward a great season that sees the team finally win a conference championship while beating both Ohio State and Michigan State. But first....clear this hurdle.
I don't know about you, but I'm ready to get going on a full weekend of college football.
*The FIVE are 5 games that I've picked for inclusion. I may, or may not be placing my own personal wagers on these. These are not intended as betting advice, but an insight into how I choose to look at games. I do rate my performance on the FIVE annually, last year was not good, but the FIVE got shut-down early due to personal issues. In past seasons I've finished somewhere just over 52%. Fade or follow, it's your choice and your money.
**All odds are as accurate as I can make them as of the time of publication. When possible, I grab them from the source, (this year William Hill for the most part because they offer lines early) I will be checking lines periodically AFTER initial publication and will try to adjust as appropriate through editing. I will note edits by italicizing them and placing notes under the write-up. My goal in this is to be as transparent as possible. But remember, I have a day job and am not being paid for content on here so......If you want the most accurate lines go look them up yourself.
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