Monday, September 24, 2018

College Football: Recapping my no-good,very bad, totally awful Week 4 FIVE


Some weeks in sports gaming you feel so sure that things are going to roll your way.  Then the games start and it becomes a tire-fire.  This was my week 4 FIVE as my desire to continue to pick underdogs I thought would be facing vulnerable favorites turned South in a hurry, and the favorites that I did side with laid an egg.

So, 0-5 then, bringing my season total to an embarrassing 6-13-1. (30%)

Now you see why I don't try to tout my picks. You'd be insane to pay for this information. I've said before that if you're looking to an accountant in Houston to provide you with gambling advice, get help.  Seriously.

Let's take a look at how it all went wrong.

1. Washington State @ USC (-3.5) [53]

Pick: Washington State to WIN on the ML.

Things started out OK. At halftime Wazzu was up 24-17 on USC and I thought I was going to be off to a decent start. But then the Cougars "Couged it" and USC scored 15 4th quarter points to grab victory from the jaws of defeat. No problem, I thought, most of my picks are on Saturday....

2. Pitt (-3.5) @ North Carolina [48.5]

Pick: Pitt to cover -3.5

There was nothing in North Carolina's body of work to date that suggested they had this kind of game in them. Again, at halftime Pitt was leading by a touchdown and I felt pretty good about things. Then NC won the 3rd quarter 17-0 and I knew I was looking at a long day.

3. Louisville @ Virginia (-5) [54.5]

Pick: Louisville to COVER +5

This one is on me.  I should have known better than to trust any team coached by Bobby Petrino.  I didn't think Louisville was good, but I didn't think they were THAT bad on offense. Fool me once, shame on you, there won't be a second time with this team.

4. Northern Illinois @ Florida State (-10) [45]

Pick: Northern Illinois to COVER +10

Again, I didn't think NIU would win here but I did think Florida State was bad enough that they had a chance to cover. In the end, they ALMOST snuck in through the back door but a late turnover killed that hope. By now it was looking bleak but at least I thought TCU would right the ship and prevent a total disaster....

5. TCU (-3) @ Texas [47.5]

Pick: TCU to cover -3 

Never mind.  When Texas poured it on in the 2nd half and TCU folded up the tent I knew this weekend was toast. Of all the results I was most surprised by this one. I also think it's the one that's going to cause the biggest issue going forward as the Longhorns are going to be overrated from this point forward.

OK Look. These things happen.  When you see touts talk about going "5-0 during the weekend" you never see the weeks where they go 0-fer in this manner. They cover them up. My goal is to make it work over the long haul and one bad week doesn't change that goal.  Next week's FIVE will be better, and so will the one after that.

Every season I have a week (or three) where I just miss.  Either my numbers are off or one team comes out of nowhere to do something odd. That's gambling, ask anyone who was on the Minnesota Vikings yesterday how that worked out for them.

The point is that gambling is entertainment, and having something on the games makes them even more entertaining. You should always view money wagered as money lost. It's the price you pay to be entertained.

As a reminder, I'm tracking the financial performance of a $100 bet over at CappedIn. Of course the week that I finally remembered to do it was the week where I went 0 for 5.  But I'm going to do a better job of this going forward.  Hopefully we can find some wins next week. I need a bounce back something fierce.  The goal remains the same, better than 50% in the FIVE picks throughout the season.  One winning week gets us right back on track.

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