Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Sports Betting: Recapping the Week 3 FIVE and the Week 2 NFL 3 and Out.

I knew, when making last week's picks, that I was taking a big chance by taking a lot of underdogs to win on the ML.  Some times it plays out OK, sometimes you get kicked in the head.  Last weekend I got kicked in the head pretty hard.

The FIVE results:  2-3. (Season to Date 6-8-1)

Winners:

1. North Texas @ Arkansas (-7) [69]

Pick: North Texas to COVER +7


I originally missed on North Texas, thinking them to be a little overrated, but I copped to my error early and now think they are a dark horse contender to be the Group of 5's representative in the New Year's 6 Bowl Festivities.  Granted, a LOT of things have to happen for this to be the case.

3. Florida State (-3) @ Syracuse [68.5]

Pick: Syracuse to win on the M/L


This was, to me, an easy pick. Florida State is a dumpster fire right now and the Orange look every bit like possible contenders in the ACC.

Losers:

2. UTSA @ Kansas State (-21.5) [46.5]

Pick: UTSA to COVER +21.5


The final score was 41-17. Which surprised, in large part because I didn't think Kansas State had that type of offensive effort in them.

4. Boise State @ Oklahoma State (-2.5) [64.5]

Pick: Boise State to win on the M/L


I was very disappointed by the Broncos effort in this game. I'm still not sold on Okie State being a dominant team this season despite how easily they handed Boise State.

5. Houston (-1) @ Texas Tech [69.5] 

Pick: Houston to cover -1


I was very surprised by this game. Houston is looking more and more like they're reverting to the Art Briles years, where they were OK offensively but terrible on defense.  And this is WITH Ed Oliver on the Defensive Line.  Major Applewhite is probably not the worst football coach in Houston right now, that honor belongs to Bill O'Brien, but he's a close second and might follow the former out the door after this year.



The NFL 3 and Out Results:  1-2 Season to date: 3-3

Winner:

2. Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-4.5) [52.5]

Pick: Kansas City to Cover +4.5


How about an outright win for KC, who looks all the world like the best offensive team in football right now.  Granted, this is an Andy Reid team so take these early results with a grain of salt. I also expect the Over in Chiefs games to be the norm going forward.

Losers:

1.  Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-1) [44].

Pick: Baltimore to win on the M/L.


Wait, is it possible that the Bengals are GOOD this year?  Or it's possible that Joe Flacco is not elite, that the defense is not as good as advertised and that GM Newsome has lost a little bit of his shine.  Or both could be true.

3. NY Giants @ Dallas (-3) [42]

Pick: New York to win on the ML.


I made on huge error in handicapping this game: I underestimated just how bad the Giants were in all aspects of playing football.



Ah well, new week, new picks coming on Wednesday and Thursday.  At this point however you might want to FADE.

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