This has been, without argument, one of my worst seasons in college football sports betting in quite some time. It's been bad, so last week I took a break. A much needed break. I went to Lake Charles, spent the weekend in the casino playing video poker and black-jack, and actually didn't lose. I did watch some of the games, Ohio State/Maryland Michigan/Indiana and parts of the LSU/Rice slaughter.
If you need to get away during college football season then SEC Buy Week is the time to do it. About the only notable game that I missed was OSU's win over West Virginia, but I did see parts of it at the bar.
So, don't worry about the season-long record (It's bad) let's focus on Rivalry Week and some fun things that might be in front of us....
1. Northern Illinois (-5.5) @ Western Michigan [51.5] - Pick: Northern Illinois to COVER -5.5
Western Michigan still gets bet as if P.J. Fleck is still the head coach there and they're rowing that damn boat. And it shows, they're 1-6 ATS in their last 7 while NIU is 5-2 during the same span. It's the same for NIU when they play at Western Michigan, they've covered 4 of the last 5. This is an NIU team that has locked up their division in the MAC so it's possible that they play it safe and go for injury avoidance, even so I still think they have enough to beat Western Michigan by at least a touchdown.
2. Houston @ Memphis (-9) [77] - Pick: Over 77
I get it, this is a huge number, but these two teams have gone over in 4 of their last six match-ups. Even without D'eriq King (our for the season) Houston still has a potent offense and neither team plays defense with much skill, even IF Ed Oliver comes back to the Cougars line-up, which he is rumored to do. Houston NEEDS a win here for the honor of playing UCF in the AAC Championship. A Memphis win leads to a potential 4-team tie for 1st place and utter chaos. Tulane and SMU should win their games, so it all comes down to this. I think Memphis wins, but Houston covers, and a crap-ton of points are scored.
3. Oklahoma (-1) @ West Virginia [81.5] - Pick: UNDER 81.5
This game is kryptonite for the spread better as both teams are sub-500 against the number in their last 6 games. If anything, I give the slight nod to West Virginia because they're playing at home and I'm not alone. This number opened at -3, but you probably missed that, so you're going to have to decide if you have confidence in the Mountaineers to win straight up. I don't, but I also don't think that 82 points are going to be scored in this game. It will get close to it for sure, but it feels more like a 31-28 type of game to me. Of course, given both of these teams I could have just given you the halftime score. IF THAT happens, this is an L. But I'm fairly confident it won't. Another fun note: IF WVU beats OU then WVU and Texas play in the Big XII championship, and the Big XII gets left out of the playoff.
4. Florida (-5) @ Florida State [53] - Pick: Florida to COVER -5
If you're not confident in Florida here, then you could alternatively take the over. Both of these teams have gone that way in 5 of their last 6. But Florida is playing for a potential NY6 Bowl game, if things break right, and while Florida State is playing for bowl eligibility I cannot see that happening as the Gators are the MUCH better team. This feels like a double digit win game to me, even considering how gross Florida's offense can be at times. Florida State is going to have to do some soul searching in the off-season regarding Willie Taggert. Personally, I think one of the reasons Jimbo Fisher cut bait to Texas aTm was that he knew the cupboard was bare. But does Florida State understand that?
5. Baylor @ Texas Tech (-6.5) [47.5] - Pick: Texas Tech to COVER -6.5
A moment's pause to thank the Big XII for saving what has otherwise been a fairly mundane and boring college football seasons. On paper this appears to be another one of those close games that could go either way, but looking behind the numbers Baylor, when losing, has lost badly. Texas Tech's defense is still not-good, but they're no-longer horrid and this might have been a much better team had their QB not struggled with a partially collapsed lung. I think this is a double-digit win game for Baylor who are still trying to figure out if Matt Rhule is the long-term solution for them or no. Call this the "hot-seat" bowl. The coach who loses will miss out on a bowl and might find himself sitting on one.
Other Games: (I'm not going to hit them all, just a few that interest me)
Auburn @ Alabama (-24) [53] - The idiots that run the Chic-Fil-A Twitter account placed this at the 1 seed in their "greatest rivalries of all-time" bracket, which is silly. Especially when you consider "the Game" was 2 and Army/Navy 3. Seriously? It won't be much this year as Alabama has succeeded in doing what few could in the past: They've sucked the joy out of the game completely through their dominance.
Louisiana State @ Texas aTm (-2) [47.5] - Kyle field at night, two teams facing off for 2nd place in the SEC West. LSU with a POSSIBLE NY6 bowl bid on the line. Texas aTm who desperately wants to compete with the Alabama's of the world fired Kevin Sumlin coming off an 7-5 season and paid tens of Millions of dollars to Jimbo Fisher who is likely to finish at 7-5 barring a win over LSU. Good investment Aggies.
Utah State @ Boise State (-30) [67.5] - Death, taxes and Boise State getting over bet at home. They Broncos were overrated coming into the year and it's pretty clear that Utah State was underrated. They're still chronically underrated by the CFP but that's a story for another time. I really think Utah State pulls the upset here but I'm not confident enough in that prediction to put it in my FIVE.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
Nevada (-13) @ UNLV [63.5] - No team has disappointed me more than the Desert Rug Rats. I really thought they would make it to a bowl but a lack of defense, a broken offense, and a broken QB foot has placed them right back in the Mountain West Dungeon again, battling it out for one of the worst teams in the country. Coach Sanchez is likely to stay because he's friends with the Mega Donor Fertitta brothers, but he shouldn't. A team serious about winning would let him go after this disaster.
And finally.
THE GAME:
Michigan (-4) @ Ohio State [57].
Yes, I know, Ohio State has not looked good of late. Michigan appears to be finally hitting it's stride. But I've said this before and I'll say it again: The next time Michigan beats Ohio State I'm going to be wrong about it. Because I need them to prove to me that the CAN beat OSU before I pick them to do it. A win in this game gives Michigan a rematch with Northwestern in the B1G title game. A loss let's OSU play them and all of the Harbaugh questions come back to the front of the line.
Go.Blue.
Go.Blue.
Enjoy the games.
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