Kentucky Derby: The 2019 Fountain of Youth.

As the calendar rolls to March it's time for the horse racing community to start taking the KY Derby Preps more seriously.  That starts with the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes running Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Of late, this has been a key race, one who's winner has found himself in the gate at the Run for the Roses and has even produced a winner (Orb) in 2013.  Sadly, the winners here haven't been able to replicate Orb's success, but they have figured prominently in the race.

Here's the field with M/L odds, the jockeys and trainers and my thoughts.....


1. Code of Honor [6-1] John Velasquez/Bill Mott - The last time we saw Code he was running a disappointing 4th in the Mucho Macho Man behind eventual winner Mihos and......  And that's the problem with this Bill Mott trained colt who should figure prominently in your exotics but probably doesn't have the class to overcome the top horses here.

2. Epic Dreamer [20-1] Tyler Gaffilione/Kelly Breene - I feel a little for Epic Dreamer, he had a horrible trip in the Springboard, where he finished 6th and then was flat burned out in the Holy Bull, fading to 4th. He's probably going to be one that sets the pace here, and gives the favorites something to run at before falling off the board.  Still, I could see him figuring in the bottom of the superfecta, which makes this a hard race to handicap vertically.

3. Gladiator King [50-1] Juan Mejia/Jose Solorzano - I can't make any serious case for this horse whose betting getting whupped at this class consistently. He lost by twenty-eight lengths at the Holy Bull, and then ran last weekend on the turf, dropping down, as was beaten there. Sorry, I just cannot see it.

4. Bourbon War [10-1] Irad Ortiz Jr./Mark Hennig - One of the problems with horse racing is that you cannot bet early and lock in your odds.  Because, if you could, then this Tapit colt would be a steal at 10-1. No way he goes off at this number. Two races back he finished 4th in what has turned out to be a key race in the G2 Ramsen Stakes, and he most recently won over a solid, but not spectacular field, at the same distance on the same track.  Will he need to improve some to win here? You bet, but that's why they call them longshots.  He's my key horse to upsetting the rather prohibitive favorite that we'll discuss later.

5. Vekoma [7-2] Matt Franco/George Weaver - We haven't seen Vekoma run since last November's Nashua, where he won in workmanlike fashion over a solid field.  That said, this horse is undefeated in two races and have a stalking style that might just play well over this track. One huge caveat: This is his first time around two. That's potentially a problem coming off a freshening for the first time. I'll use him in my exotics, but will wait to see the odds before deciding whether or not to include him as a win contender for entertainment purposes.

6. Signalman [9-2] Brian Hernandez Jr/Kenny McPeek - Ignore this colt at your own peril. He finished 3rd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. He's stretching out in distance here and it's unclear whether or not he's going to fully enjoy that, and there's also the fact that I think McPeek is using this as a prep race for one of the big qualifiers next month, but he's have to really drop in class to miss the board here.  An exotic play for sure, possibly a win play depending on his race-day condition.

7. Hidden Scroll [9-5] Joel Rosario/Bill Mott - Hidden Scroll's best race is a 14-length win over a sloppy Gulfstream Mile back in January.  As we all know, when Gulfstream gets sloppy it favors speed. Not so much when it's dry, and it's expected to be dry and fast on Saturday.  Can he rate? Can he do something besides wire the field?  I'll use him in my exotics, but that's too many questions for me to use him anywhere other than in my exotics.  If he beats me, he beats me.

8. Global Campaign [10-1] Luis Saez/Stanley Hough - I could make a case where this lightly raced colt wins this race, and I'm sure you could as well.  He's the son of Curlin and seems bread for the distance (and more) and he's a powerful looking thing with a beautiful turn of foot. He's talented, but hasn't had the chance to really show what he can do.  That said, if the odds are right I could take a stab at him and he's going to be in the top of my exotics.

9. Everfast [20-1] Chris Landeros/Dale Romans - No matter what happens going forward, the connections of Everfast will always have the Holy Bull to look back on fondly.  The horse famously went off at 126-1 and took advantage of a hot pace to pull off the huge upset.  If you had him, congrats. I don't think he'll get the same trip here but I do think he'll be rolling late and could trip up several vertical exotics if you leave him out.

10. Frosted Grace [30-1] Jonathan Gonzales/Katherine Ritvo - Has one win in five tries and looked a class below in his one shot at stakes competition. If he wins, it's going to be the upset of the day. I just can't see it.  Nice colt that might have a future as a miler, or a lower level stakes winner which could give him a good career.  Needs to be put in the right places and I don't think this is it.

11. Union's Destiny [30-1] Luis Reyes/Juan Carlos Avila - Another horse that I think might have a career at a shorter distance later on.  The problem for me here is that, despite not liking Union Rags as a runner, I typically fall onto his offspring. But I can't do that here. With the outside post and a horse that would need to make a huge leap up to contend I just can't see it.

The trick in the Fountain of Youth is going to be to beat what is assuredly going to be a heavy post-time favorite in Hidden Scroll.  Here's what I'm thinking to do that:

$10 Win - 4 Bourbon War
$5 Win - 6 Signalman
$5 Win - 5 Vekoma

$1 Exacta Box -  7,4,6,5/7,4,6,5

Good luck and may the favorite NOT win.