2019 Belmont DAY: My betting strategy for the 'other' races.

The 2019 race card on Belmont Day at...well....Belmont is HUGE. No fewer than 10 graded stakes races, all of which could anchor their own day.  Unfortunately, that's not where horse racing is right now (more on that later) so instead of getting them all featured they're all going to run in the shadow of the Third (and most gimmicky) leg of the Triple Crown, which means that many fine races are going to go overlooked.

Even I'm not going to spend the time (TBH, I don't have the time) to break down all 10 races, instead I'm going to provide you with my betting strategy for the day here.

After skipping races 1 & 2 I'm going to start dabbling in the 3rd, hoping to catch some prices to build the bank-roll for the races in the heart of the card.

Race 3: $150,000 Easy Goer Stakes. I expect most of the money to be wagered on the 6 -Alwaysmining and the 4 - Outshine.  I'm going to take a different tack and look for somewhat of a price on the 2 - Dream Maker. Trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Julian Leparoux I think this horse has a real chance to pull an upset here. I'm hoping he goes off around 10/1  Bet: $5 Win - 2

Race 4: $700,000 Just a Game Stakes. Almost all of the money is going to be placed on the 4 - Rushing Fall, but I'm going to look toward a different Chad Brown horse the 6 - Environs. I typically like European turf horses better than I do their American counterparts and I'm still getting the best American turf trainer in the business, at a MUCH better price. Bet: $5 Win - 6

Race 5: $700,000 Ogden Phipps Stakes On paper this is a two horse race between the 1 - Come Dancing and the 2 - Midnight Bisou.  I cannot really argue with this but I like the 5 - Mopotism to come in 3rd at a long price which could let the Trifecta pay nicely. At least we hope. Bet: $2 Tri 2-1-5

Race 6: $400,000 Jaipur Stakes. I love turf sprint races, and I love when I can catch a Wesley Ward horse at a price in them. The 8 - World of Trouble is going to be the overwhelming favorite here but I'm going to play against him with two horses, the 1 - Undrafted  and the 7 - Belvior Bay. My hope is to catch lightning in a bottle. Bet: $5 Win 1 and $5 Win 7

Race 7: $700,000 Acorn Stakes. The traditional 3rd leg of the Filly Triple Crown isn't really a thing any more, but this is a good race with some good horses from which I really like the 1 - Serengeti Empress and the 3 - Cookie Dough. I'm going to hope for a speed dual and that my horses pick up the pieces.  Bet: $5 Win - 1 and $5 Win 3

Race 8 - 11:

8: $400,000 Woody Stephens

9: $1,200,000 Metropolitan Mile

10: $1,000,000 Manhattan

11: $1,500,000 Belmont Stakes

I'm grouping all of these races together because, outside of my Belmont wagers that I've mentioned before, I'm probably ONLY going to play the All-Stakes Pick 4.

My choices are as follows:

Race 8: 2-3-4-9

Race 9: 2-3-7

Race 10: 8

Race 11: 8-9-10

$18.00 total

It's possible that, in the Met Mile I'll throw a $5 win bet at the 3 - Mitole, but that depends an awful lot on the post-time odds. Outside of that the plays are odds dependent, so it will probably be the above pick 4 and sit and hope that Bricks and Morter is all that I think he is.

Good luck to you however you bet and enjoy the races.

2019 Belmont Stakes: No Triple Crown Contender, but a Strong Field Nevertheless

And so we get to the end of a weird, and wild, 3 Year Old racing season.

What's that? You think the horse racing season ends after the Triple Crown races? Oh how wrong you are.

While the public, and horse players, get all fired up for these races the truth is that the BEST horse races of the year are still to come.  The Haskell, The Travers, the Breeder's Cup. All are still to be ran. Not to mention the late-year races for 2 year olds, some of whom will feature in NEXT YEAR's Triple Crown.

But first, we have the 151st Running of the Belmont Stakes the oldest of the Triple Crown races, and the oddest, ran at 1 1/2 miles over the dirt course at a track affectionately known as "Big Sandy".

Here's a look at the field, the trainers/jockeys. the opening Money Line, my thoughts, and how I'm going to bet it.


1. Joevia 30-1 (Gregg Sacco/Jose Lezcano)  OK, he's fast. But when going longer, as he tried to do in the 1 1/8th mile Wood Memorial he seems to hit a wall. His best race was his last one, the 1 1/16th Mile Long Branch at Monmouth. It says something however that his connections chose this race in order to avoid Maximum Security. He might play an early role in the pace, but I think he'll be praying for the line at the end and should be near the bottom half.  I'm tossing him here.

2. Everfast 12-1 (Dale Romans/Luis Saez) Way outran his odds at the Preakness, where he finished second, which is much, much better than he's done in prior races against similar competition. IF you think he's an improving horse that "figured it all out" in the 2nd jewel then you might want to take a stab. I personally think it was a perfect trip situation and the extra distance is not going to help.  Possibly he can be included in the bottom of the exotics but that's about it.

3. Master Fencer 8-1 (Koichi Tsunoda/Julien Leparoux) The Japanese import was the horse that I identified as the "sharp horse" heading up to last weekend. Then he stumbled in training and has gone through multiple X-rays and the buzz around him seems to have cooled. I thought he ran an uninspiring 6th in the Kentucky Derby but he, like others, had trip issues and it's hard to take anything away from that race since the staff decided to harrow the track immediately prior to a deluge. I'm going to toss him, and I'll actually be a little surprised if he runs.

5. Tax 15-1 (Danny Gargan/Irad Ortiz Jr.) The big question regarding Tax is this: Can you draw a line through the Kentucky Derby, where he failed to fire and finished 14th? Or was that a sign of things to come?  When you throw in sub-par works leading up to the Belmont the questions abound.  The connections are pointing to a foot injury that they say should be healed by race day. Outside of that I'm not sure he's got the breeding in his background to go 1 1/2 miles. That said, I'm not keeping him in my exotics because he's a talented horse with a good bloodline.

6. Spinoff 15-1 (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) Spinoff is a dead closer who seems to not be as effective closing as the race gets longer. His two wins are in short-ish races (5 furlongs and 1 mile and 40 yards) against non-stakes competition.  But trainer Todd Pletcher is tough to ignore at Belmont, and he thinks the slop of a track at Churchill is a good excuse. He's an exotic pick for me, near the bottom though.

7. Sir Winston 12-1 (Mark Casse/Joel Rosario) When running against similar, this horse finished out of the money, when running against a notch lower he hit the board.  There seems to be a feeling that he's an improving horse and the run in the Peter Pan, where he finished 2nd in hard-charging style, is evidence of that. He's got Afleet Alex and Deputy Minister in his bloodline, so the distance should not be a worry. I'm going to use him in my exotics, but not to win. I think he's not talented enough to do so.

8. Intrepid Heart 10-1 (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) When Tood Pletcher signs Velazquez to a horse,he thinks he's in with a chance. the problem is he's so lightly raced, it's hard to decide is the G3 Peter Pan was an exception, or the rule? This is a Tapit colt, and you cannot ignore that in the Belmont.  I'll be using him as my upset pick and I'll put him in my exotics just in case. I'll also probably use him in my vertical wager.

9. War of Will 2-1 (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione)  This was my top pick heading into the Kentucky Derby, he was my top pick heading into the Preakness, and he's going to be my top pick heading into the Belmont.  As a matter of fact, were it not for Maximum Security bouncing all over the place in the Derby I truly believe that this horse would be a live shot for back-to-back Triple Crown winners. As it stands, I think after time passes we're going to find out that he was the best 3 YO in this class.

10. Tacitus 9/5 (Bill Mott/Jose Ortiz Jr.) There's a lot to like about this horse running 1 1/2 miles, he's got breeding (Tapit) and he's got the grinding style to wear down other horses in the LONG stretch at Belmont. He's a smooth-mover who looks great on the gallop, and could end up running away with it all in the end.  I think the odds are going to be too short to play him seriously on Saturday, but he'll figure prominently in my exotics and he'll be in all my vertical wagers.



Betting Strategy:

For ease of use I'm only going to talk about the Belmont, and not my vertical wagers.  Here's how I'm planning to bet this race:

$20 Win - 9
$10 Win - 8
$5 Tri 9-10-8
$5 Win 8

$1 Supr 9-10 with 9-10-8 with 8-6-5 with 8-6-5-2 ($26)


Good luck however you bet. I'm going to examine the Met Mile and talk about my All-Stakes Pick 4 ticket in a later post.

A promise on June 4th: Yes, the podcast is coming back.

I recorded the first episode of my podcast, and then the bottom of everything fell out.

Work has been a beast, family issues, etc.

But I promise it's coming back, and it will be back on Wednesday in the run-up to the Belmont.  My plan is for this one to be a little longer, because I have a LOT of things to opine on.

Sorry for the delay, you know how life is right?