Last week was a good week at TPM central. The FIVE went 4-1, and would have gone 5-0 had Mark Stoops had an ounce of sportsmanship in his body. Instead, he had his offense throw a TD pass up 14 points with :59 seconds left to go in the game, ruining the +15.5 cover.
I hope Kentucky doesn't win another game this season.
But, that said, on to the next week, one of the worst "on paper" matchup weeks of the season FWIW. This COULD mean that we're in for a big dallop of chaos theory, or.....
The Week 3 FIVE:
1. Washington State (-9) vs. Houston [-340 & +280] {O/U 74}
This game is being played at NRG Stadium, so while it's not really a home game for Houston it is played in Houston. This helps the Coogs but probably does not detract from the Cougs as much as many people think. The home field advantage is pretty strong for Houston in the Tillman, not so much at NRG, where the overall size, and acoustics, make the crowd seem quieter. I like Wazzu here, but not enough to give them the nod. I think the play in this game is on the number.
Predication: Wazzu 52 Houston 40 OVER 74
2. Kansas State @ Mississippi State (-8) [+260 & -330] {O/U 52}
IF Bill Snyder was still the coach of K-State I'd give them a serious look, but this is now Chris Klieman's team and I'm not sure whether the shock of not being at North Dakota State has fully enveloped him or not. I think the Bulldogs are good, and have the potential to be very good. We're gong to see a little bit rather I'm correct on that assumption here.
Prediction: Kansas State 7 Mississippi State 24 MSU to COVER -8 (I also like the UNDER here but that's not a FIVE pick)
3. Georgia State @ Western Michigan (-8.5) [+260 & -330] {O/U 69.5}
One thing I like about funny week 1 results is that they can cause some weird line ripple effects that, while diminishing over time, don't really go away until the end of the season because the public can't quite get that huge upset fully out of their minds. I think this is the case here based on my analytics.
Prediction: Georgia State 10 Western Michigan 42 Western Michigan to cover -8.5
4. TCU (-2.5) @ Purdue [-145 +125] {O/U 51.5]
This is one of those games that you initially look at and say "pass" until you start forgetting all of your pre-conceived notions from the past on these two teams and just evaluate them in the moment. My numbers say the line is about right, but I'm looking at the total here. I think it's low.
Prediction: TCU 38 Purdue 42 OVER 51.5
5. Hawai'i @ Washington (-21.5) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 58.5}
Another case where I hate the number, although there could be some Hawai'i value there, and focus instead on the number. Yes, Washington has a good defense but no one has fully stopped the Rainbow Warrior's Run N' Shoot yet. Love the Over here.
Prediction: Hawai'i 28 Washington 42 OVER 58.5
Again, there are no marquee games this weekend, unless you want to factor in El Assico, which I do, and the pre-game lines are slim pickens. That said, stay alert, because there might be in game opportunities materialize, especially on the numbers.
Good luck however you play.
