Continuing with the new format:
FIVE things I'm considering this week, or find interesting.
1. Iowa +5.5 - If you're reading this, you missed this line and I'm sorry. It's already been bet down to +3.5 as the sharps confidence in Michigan has rightly taken a nose dive. I've downgraded Michigan on offense AND defense and given Iowa's numbers I think this is a FG game, at best. You might still find some value in Iowa ML (currently at +145) but the prime opportunity in this game has been scrubbed from the market.
2. Auburn -3 Yet another "SEC game of the century" that I think is going to result in a blowout. The line has "crept" up to -3.5 and I really don't think it's going to move much further. My guess is that you'll see some people taking the hook and backing Florida. My thought is that the Gators are still overrated this year and while I do believe their current QB is an upgrade over Franks, I think Auburn has to much and wins this by a couple of TDs.
3. Vanderbilt +7.5 Currently sitting at +7, I think the Commodores have a real shot to pull an upset over Ole Miss here. The Rebels program is in deep rebuilding mode after the Freeze era, and they're just as likely to pull a stinker of a game as they are to play competently and win. I think Vandy keeps it close, with a real chance to shock some people.
4. Texas -10.5 I'm not entirely sure why this line has not moved since it opened, but I think the analysis of this game is pretty simple. The Longhorns are a much better team than West Virginia right now and I believe that the final score will reveal this.
5. Illinois +14 What attracted me to this line? While undefeated, Minnesota has not beaten a team by more than 7 points all year, not even South Dakota State. While I operate under no illusions that Illinois is good, I do think they're at least as good as SDS and should be able to keep this fairly close with a defense that can contain the Golden Gophers and an offense that could possibly even score a little.
Last week I went 2-2 on the FIVE, deciding to NOT take Arizona when the line did not move the way I thought it would. It was a middling day and I'm hoping for something much better this weekend.
One thing though, as the season matures and the books get tighter and tighter with their lines, I'll probably be moving to totals almost exclusively soon. I still think there are cases where the books just spit the bit a little, especially with the smaller teams, but often at the middle-to-bottom of the Power 5 conferences as you see today.
For the NFL I'm (almost) ALL totals now, which you'll see in an upcoming post.
Good luck however you wager the games, I have nothing on board for the two games this evening, nor did I have anything on the two last night.
