As the legalized sports betting model matures, talking about the market is expanding at a rapid pace, with little history, or fact-checking, or even independent observations, to fact-check it. I've a feeling that there are bettors being called "sharp" who really aren't, who might have had some small-sample sized runs but who really aren't all that sharp at all.
At times, I think someone might be considered 'sharp' by a commentator because they've taken a position against "the public". A REAL sharp would understand that, many times, the public gets it right and betting with them is not all that bad of an idea. The myth that there's a "sharp" side and a "public" side to every game is just not all that accurate.
On to the games.
1. Chicago -4.5 (In London) The old adage is that if you take the favorite, you're on the "Public's side". I disagree with this. I think being "sharp" means getting the best of the line, and making a smart bet. The public is going to be all over the Bears here, but they're going to be betting them at -5.5 (currently) or even at -6.5 which is where I think the line might settle. -4.5 was available at the open, and I snagged it. I'll be surprised if the game finishes even close to this. However, if the line moves across a key there will be a decent arbitrage opportunity coming back on the Raiders.
2. Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals u47. When we last saw the Bengals they were laying an offensive egg against the Steelers on MNF. Admittedly, they get in easier against the Arizona Cardinals but neither team does much in the way of scoring. Think 17-16 or something along those lines. The bottom line is these are two bad teams teeing it up on Sunday.
3. New England Patriots vs. Washington Redskins o42 - It's not that I think the Redskins can score on the Patriots, I honestly think the Patriots might cover this line on their own. Still watching though to see if it moves down any more than it currently is. If it moves up, I'm out on it and will look elsewhere.
Other games of interest:
Atlanta vs. Houston o49 - Two not very good offensive teams but the problem is what offensive strengths they have, play into the weaknesses of the other's defense. I can make a strong case for this game being a track meet, but it could also be one of the worst games of the week.
Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh u44.5 Currently I think this is a tight line that might take some money and loosen up a little oddly enough. I think the public is still in love with the Raven's offense and the Steeler's performance against Cincy might bring in the Sunday money.
Buccaneers vs. Saints o46.5 I could make a case where points are plentiful in this one. A pretty strong case.
