Last week was an awful, brutal, no-good, very bad week.
Last night started the comeback when I went 3-0 for the App State vs. U La La game.
App State +3
App State ML
u70
So, that's a good start. I've got a few lines that I want to discuss for this weekend, and a couple of big games that I'm not touching but should make the viewing interesting at least.
1. Virginia (+2) @ Miami (FL) Miami has been somewhat of a disappointment this year, while Virginia has been a little bit better than the prognosticators thought. People always seem to overrate Miami's home field advantage (I adjust them down 1.5 points on the normal 3 pt scale) Virginia's only loss is by 15 to a pretty good ND team, while Miami has lost to a really good Florida team, an OK UNC team and an awful Virginia Tech team. I think Virginia pulls the upset here and I LOVE them at +2
2. Eastern Michigan (-1) @ Ball State This line opened at EMU +2 and I jumped on it. I think that's where the value was. EMU always plays close games and I think they have more physical talent than a Ball State team that's in an identity crisis. My numbers show them as a slight favorite. I think they get the mild, mild, no spice, upset here.
3. Cincinnati @ Houston o51.5 There's been a lot made about Cincinnati's defense of late, and they looked great against UCF, but Houston seems to have found something with their backup QB and removing some poison from the roster and I think you're going to see both teams score early and often. Cincinnati is a 7.5 favorite and, while I'm not enamored with that line (If anything I'd take Houston to cover) I do like the over here a LOT
4. Syracuse @ NC State u56 This week's candidate for "Conference Rock Fight" of the week, after last night's game, is this game against two teams that struggle offensively when they play good teams. The Wolfpack's offense ran up some silly numbers playing bad teams, and then came crashing to the ground against.....Florida State. I'd be surprised here if either team broke 20 on their own.
5. Mississippi State (-7) @ Tennessee This game is a "run away" game for me, but it will be interesting to see if the Vols show up to play. The Bulldogs are not a good team, they're benefiting from the SEC overate factor this year, but the Vols have been abysmal. I think they're playing for Pruitt's job on Saturday.
Red River Shootout:
Oklahoma (-10) vs. Texas (Game played in the Cotton Bowl) 75.5
This is one of the best rivalry games in the country and it's usually pretty close. Historically 10 points is a LOT of points either way, especially since we're not entirely sure what Oklahoma is, but I'll be tuning into it despite not wanting to get anywhere near the betting window for it.
Florida @ LSU -13.5 55.5
Probably the game of the week (Sorry Aggies) and a game that I just cannot see LSU winning by more than a touchdown. That said, I've been wrong about Florida almost every week this season so it's a pass for me, but this is another game I'll be watching. Death Valley in the evening is one of the better college football environments there is.
Teams in which I have a rooting interest:
UNLV @ Vanderbilt -14.5 57
I think Rebel head coach Tony Sanchez is on death watch here, and I think a Vandy blowout will just about do it for him. Freshman QB Kyle Oblad is starting, but I think Vandy is going to run them into the ground.
Michigan -22.5 @ Illinois 49
After last week's rock fight against Iowa Wolverine head coach Jim Harbaugh said he thought the offense was "hitting it's stride". They scored 10 points in that game which could mean that "It's stride" is little more than cowering in a corner peeing itself. Nothing matters for the Wolverines except for Sparty and tOSU now so let's just get this win and move on.
Good luck to you however you choose to bet, or don't bet.
