College Football: The Red River......whatever.

When UT-Austin and Oklahoma-Norman play tackle football it's always a big week. People in my generation grew up calling it the Red River Shootout, but the woke folks over at ESPN have decided that such things are no longer allowed.

So, we have had the Red River Showdown, Rivalry and a host of other names, none of them which have stuck.

What we do know is that it's a pretty big rivalry game (yes, we still miss UT-Austin vs. aTm on Thanksgiving) that's pretty much appointment viewing because something weird is going to happen.

..........

I've decided, moving forward, to get rid of the FIVE.  One of the big reasons is that I'm not comfortable being forced to pick 5 games.  There are weekends where I have more than five, and some where I only have one or two that I really like. So I'm replacing that little experiment with this, an overview of the weekend at hand, I'll share some things that I'm considering but offer no picks.

..........

Tonight I like Houston.  I grabbed them at -4.5 early in the week and the line has since moved to -6.5 or -7, but I still like them against Tulane. After stubbing their toe against Tortilla Tech in the season opener the Cougars have started to get things together and, especially on defense, are starting to get on a roll.

I also like Temple as a big dog (+29 currently) against a Cincinnati team that I think is going to have a "we just beat Notre Dame team in their house" hangover.  I don't like Temple to win, but I do like them to cover comfortably.

Another play that I'm really liking is Stanford +13 against Arizona State. The Cardinal are a good team, not a great team, that can stay close to other good teams as are the Sun Devils. I'm still not a believer in the fighting Herm Edwards.

..........

Aside from those three games I think Michigan State (-6) is light against Rutgers as is Louisville (-2.5) vs a Virginia team whose defense cannot stop a hard-charging Jr. High Marching Band.

..........

Outside of the Red River game, the rest of the schedule does not pop-out to the eye, on paper. It's during weeks like this however that college football endlessly surprises.

Good luck however you bet.

1 October

 I remember sitting at home in Houston this night, four years prior. 1 October, 2017.

It was a normal night, Mrs. TPM and I were at home watching college football, I was on Twitter when I started seeing the tweets that there were some shootings in Las Vegas.  At first, as is usual in a chaotic situation, there was confusion, misinformation and panic. As cell-phone video and news reports started to filter out we realized that something very bad was happening.

We stayed up until around 4AM that morning, refreshing Twitter and trying to make sense of what was going on.  We knew it was bad, we did not yet know just how bad it was going to be.

When that deranged individual executed his plan, it forever changed the lives of Millions, but especially the ones in the families he left behind. Those that he deprived of fathers, mothers, sons, daughters, family members.

For the rest of us he reminded us that, even in our happy place of Las Vegas, we're never truly safe. As long as there are deranged individuals out there we go forward by the grace of God.

In the aftermath I sort of tuned out the news as the usual political mumbo-jumbo took hold. Those who use these things to forward their political agendas, forwarded their political agendas. Many stories were written, foolishly, about how video poker is the crack cocaine of gambling etc. Guns were, of course, the enemy, as was Las Vegas itself, by the National media that is.

For the rest of us, the normal among us, it was a tragedy, one that still lives with us, even if we weren't there.  The Vegas bubble had been broken, and their was no rebuilding it.

Today, even 4 years later, I cannot walk past the Mandalay Bay hotel without looking up where the window was, and thinking about it just a little. But we need to keep travelling and keep visiting places we love.

While the terrorists certainly won after 9/11 we cannot let the crazy win after 1 October.

We are, always #VegasStrong.

College Football: Giving the FIVE a week off.

Last week was a college football blood-bath. My worst week in a couple of years.  The FIVE struggled to a 1-4 record which lowers my season tally to 10-10 which is only .500 and now places me below the vig.

Ouch.

I am taking off this week to re-evaluate my numbers and try and figure out where the noise is in my model. This means stripping it down and evaluating where I'm getting it wrong. So my CFB betting this week is a test of my new model and not reflective of the FIVE.

I will have some things to say about other gambling stuff, and that will come later in the week.  IF I'm happy with my new numbers this week we'll bring back the FIVE next week and see if we cannot continue moving forward at a better clip.

Enjoy the weekend's games.  Alabama vs. Ole Miss should be a scorcher.

Good luck however you bet.

College Football: The Week 4 FIVE

Into every life a little rain must fall, and to every college football better a disappointing week must occur. Such was my week three. Disappointing performances by teams that I thought would play a LOT better (Looking at you Virginia) some downright silly things (Hi San Jose State) and a really wrong take on a game. (Auburn)

This left me at an underwhelming 2-3 for the weekend and staring down the barrel at my first losing week on the FIVE. Overall we're still OK, 9-6 for the season which is still good, but we were hoping for so much more.

My strategy this week was to grab lines early, once they were posted before they had a chance to move, to try and catch the market at its least efficient.  Let's see where we land this week.....

1. Kansas State (-7) vs. Oklahoma State (Curr: -6 O/U 46)

The Cowboys are NOT a good team this year, and I really think Kansas State is. I would not be at all surprised to see the Wildcats walk away with the win on the ML. I'm quite happy taking a touchdown and extra point here.

2. Michigan State (-4) vs Nebraska (Curr: -5 O/U 52)

I have been very impressed with the Spartans this year and have raised my rating of them. I have been very disappointed with Nebraska this year and have lowered my ratings significantly.  I envision a scenario where Michigan State runs away and hides here.

3. West Virginia (+16.5) vs Oklahoma (Curr: +16.5 O/U 56)

I'm a little surprised that this line has not moved toward the Mountaineers yet. Oklahoma's defense is, to be blunt, still not good and West Virginia has a quality offense. WVU also play pretty solid defense for a Big XII team. I don't see much more than a FG between these two teams and I'm certainly contemplating the over.

4. Liberty (-6) vs Syracuse (Curr: -6 O/U 52.5)

The Flames are really good, the Cuse is not. Head Coach Dino Babers has not thrived in New York and Hugh Freeze has done a good job building Liberty into a very, very solid team. I think six might be a gift here.

5. Utah State (+9) vs Boise State (Curr: +9 O/U 70.0)

Yet another line that I expected to move toward Utah State but has not. I'd be surprised if you can still grab +9 at kick off. Yes, Boise State gets a bump for playing at home on the Smurf turf, but their opponent is a really strong Utah State team that would again not surprise me if they won this outright.

Honorable Mention:

Northwestern (-14.5) vs Ohio (O/U 48)

That it is a bad number is the only thing that kept this game out of the FIVE. Northwestern is a decent team playing a very bad team at home. Blowout potential.

And Finally....

Michigan (-20) vs. Rutgers (O/U 50)

If anything, I like the Over here but I hate, hate, hate this line for Michigan. If anything, I'd almost take Rutgers here but the bad line makes it a pass.  But Go Blue! anyway.

Good luck to you however you bet.

College Football: The Week 3 FIVE

 Last week was a nail-biter. We started off rough, 0-2 after the first two games, and then rallied to finish 3-2 for the week (including the BYU ML call) which brings us to 7-3 for the season, 8-4 overall (which includes bets not in the FIVE)  As I stated before, one of the biggest issues with college football season is self-editing. It's easy to find a dozen games on which you have a lean, but we don't bet leans.

With that in mind here's the third week of the FIVE.

1. Auburn (+6) vs. Penn State. (Curr: +5.0 O/U 53.0)

I'm pretty high on the Tigers this year, and I actually think they have a solid shot of pulling off the outright upset in Happy Valley. But, I'm not brave enough to pull that trigger. So I'm going with the spread and thinking there's about a FG between these two teams.  It will be another "White out" for Penn State, which is pretty much any game they play at home now which is causing it to lose it's luster a bit.

2. Utah State (+8) vs. Air Force. (Curr: +8.0 O/U 54.0)

I think Air Force is a tad bit overrated due to them beating up on a pretty not-good Navy team last week. Utah State has been in pretty tough so far this year, and I think that they have enough to keep it very, very close against Air Force.

3. Virginia +9 vs. North Carolina (Curr: +9 O/U 66.5)

I'm still seeing a disconnect between my downgrade of North Carolina, due mainly to all of the skill position players they lost, and the odds, so I'm rolling with that. Virginia has a very good offense and a defense that I think is going to give the Tar Heels fits.

4. San Jose State (-7) vs. Hawaii. (Curr: -6.5 O/U 61.5)

Last year the Spartans won the Mountain West, and despite an up and down start I think they're much better than a down Hawaii team this year.  Plus: This gives me a reason to stay up until all hours of the night for a Hawaii game.

5. Michigan State +6.5 vs. Miami. (Curr: +6.0 O/U 56.5)

My analysis on this one is simple: Miami is the most overrated team week after week on the odds board. At some point the adjustment will come but until it does, I'll even take a bad number against them.

Honorable Mention:  UCF -6.5 vs. Louisville. (O/U 67)

This promises to be an offensive showdown between two teams looking to re-establish themselves as top teams. I like UCF here. I think a blowout UCF win is much more likely than a blowout Louisville win.

And Finally.....

Michigan -27.5 vs. Northern Illinois (O/U 54)

Yes, yes, yes, we all LOVE Michigan right now after they made mince-meat out of the Washington Huskies, but Michigan cannot throw the ball and eventually teams are going to figure that out. Playing offense one-handed is tough. Michigan NEEDS to develop their passing game sans Ronnie Bell.

Good luck to you however you bet this weekend.

College Football: The Week 2 FIVE

After missing a couple of bets in week 0, we rebounded nicely in Week 1 going 4-1 for the FIVE (curse your conservative nature David Cutcliffe) and 7-2 overall. This brings us to 4-1 for the FIVE this year (yay) and 7-4 overall for the young college football season. (As a reminder, I only list the FIVE but I have other plays. I'm not selling plays, these are just the ones that I really liked when typing out this blog.)

Week Two can often be a lot of fun because the market tends to overreact to a small sample size in week 1. This means that there is often opportunity to be found in some lines that are skewed off of what your numbers show they should be. Early in the season, trust your numbers. This might get a little more dicey later in the season as the market gains efficiency, especially in the Power 5 conferences but, for now, I trust what my numbers are telling me.

With that in Mind......

1. Illinois +10 @ Virginia. (Curr*: +10 O/U 55)

Here's one where I think the market is overreacting to a team in a classic sandwich week, losing to a lesser known team that's actually pretty darn good.  UTSA are a contender in Conference USA, West Division, and have a pretty salty offense.  Virginia beat up on an FCS foe that they should have beaten and I think they are getting too much credit for that, while Illinois is taking too much blame.

2. South Carolina +2 @ East Carolina (Curr: -1.5 O/U 56.5)

This line opened at -3 SC at most books, and almost immediately moved to ECU -2.  When I saw SC at +2 -110 at my book I pounced. Even at -1.5 think this is playable, maybe even up to -2.5. Watching line moves and taking advantage of a market issue is a feature, not a bug in sports betting.

3. Oklahoma State -12.5 vs. Tulsa  (Curr: -13 O/U 51.5)

OSU did not look impressive against Missouri State in their opener. And Tulsa looked even worse, loving to UC Davis at home. It typically takes any Mike Gundy coached team a game to get things moving, but they usually perform much better in game 2 vs game 1.  I think we're going to see that here against a Tulsa team that's probably going to struggle in the AAC this year.

4. Rutgers -2 vs. Syracuse (Curr: -2.5 O/U 52)

As I predicted last week, Rutgers was MUCH the better team than Temple. NOT the Temple that people think of when Matt Ruhle was coaching there. I think Syracuse is overrated after facing an Ohio team that's having to deal with a late head coaching change after the retirement of Solich. I expect to see Rutgers win comfortably this week and next week against Delaware, before their schedule gets much, much tougher.

5. BYU ML +220 vs. Utah. (Curr: +220, -7 Utah, O/U 49)

BYU did not look spectacular over a fairly pedestrian Arizona team, while Utah beat up FCS member Weber State. Because of this Utah is installed as a fairly good sized favorite, with people believing that their transfer QB is the key to them finally getting an offense that matches their always good defense. There are a couple of reasons that I like the Cougars here though. 1. It's still early in the season and they have not yet been beaten down by the sausage grinder of a schedule that they go through as an independent. 2. It's not unusual for Utah to look good against inferior competition.  Finally, this is the Holy War. Strange things happen when the Holy War is played in Provo.

Honorable Mention: Coastal Carolina -25 vs. Kansas. (Curr: -25, O/U 52)

Friday's game is going to get ugly, early.  Kansas has the best coach that they've had since Mangino but the talent cupboard is bare, bare, bare.  I see this as a 56-10 type of game. (You might want to play the over as well if you're so inclined.)

And finally.....

Washington @ Michigan (-7, O/U 48.5)

Being a Michigan Man I always have to talk about Big Blue, despite the fact that I would not touch this game with a 20 foot betting pole. Losing Ronnie Bell for the season is going to hurt, meaning that someone in the WR corps is going to have to step up. Washington did get beat by Montana, at home, and now they have to go on the road to the Big House but.....it's Michigan.  Stay away, stay far away.

But Go Blue.

*Current lines taken from ESPN.com as of 12:39PM on Wednesday, 9/8/21. It is probable that, by the time you've read this, things have changed.

College Football: Let's Kick off the FIVE with this gigantic Week 1.

 It is, finally, College Football Season.  As such I think it's the perfect time to bring back the weekly FIVE.

I had no play on last night's game. My analytics said UAB but the human element recognized the friendship of the coaches and the ties of the head coach for UAB to Jacksonville State so I passed. But I have Five other games that I really like this week so I'm going to share them here.  I will put down the lines that I got as well as the current lines for your convenience. (Current lines pulled from ESPN.com for convenience, your mileage may vary at your chosen book)

So, without further ado......

1. Rutgers (-13.5) vs. Temple (Curr: -14.5) Temple is not your Temple team from the Matt Ruhle era, and Rutgers is much better with the return of Schiano. It's not clear whether this game will be played tonight as planned, or tomorrow and Saturday due to the after effects of Hurrican Ida, I don't think it matters. Not as much of a fan of 14.5 but I think 14 is OK if you can get it,

2. Bowling Green (+35.5) (Curr: -35) I loved the hook here, Tennessee has a new coach and is breaking in a new system. I think they win, but five touchdowns is a LOT of points for a team with a new coach and QB and a host of other new players to be laying.  Even at home.

3. Duke (-6.5) (Curr: -6.5) Yes, Duke is breaking in a new QB, and they have some questions. But Charlotte is not a good team and if Duke cannot beat them by a touchdown they have much bigger issues than a new QB.

4. Western Michigan @ Michigan (U67) (Curr: 67) While I think Michigan beats WMich I do think both offenses are not going to look spectacular. This feels like an extremely high number to me as I see this game being somewhere in the 24-10 range, Michigan still has a good defense, I think that matters.

5. Texas Tech (-1.5) (Curr: -1) Call this a bet against the Houston Cougars more than a bet for Texas Tech. Coach Dana Holgerson has, so far, been far less than Tillman Fertita expected. Given their off-field issues and a bevvy of questions I'm not entirely sure the Cougars keep this all that close.

Honorable mention: (JUST missed the cut) San Jose Spartans (+14) vs. USC. (also current). Every year people fall in love with USC, and under Son of Love Coach they always disappoint. This is a TOUGH San Jose squad who has a game under their belt.  Upset probability here is high.

Good luck to you however you bet.

Well, we survived Las Vegas

 Anniversary trip.....done.

And a profitable trip as well, thanks largely to a $1 progressive Royal at 4Queens. Always nice to hit those.

The rest of the trip was good, we had good fun downtown, good fun at Green Valley Ranch, and just a general good time all around.  As you saw in my prior post you can follow my antics in Las Vegas on my Twitter account. @CoryWCrow If you're reading this blog and enjoying it a follow would be much appreciated.

Twitter is where you will find most of my activity now. But, you're gong to be seeing something different because, after the last Las Vegas trip, I've decided to drastically curtail the amount of alcohol that I consume.

I'm not giving up alcohol totally, I'll still have the occasional beer whilst grilling and some wine with dinner, but I'm 100% giving up hard liquor, and generally giving up drinking and gambling as well. I'm doing this more for health reasons than because I'm an alcoholic or anything like that. To be perfectly honest, I've just gotten tired of hangovers as I get older.

I also did a count of the calories I've been drinking and no wonder I'm not losing any weight.  So whiskey is out, and vodka, and gin.  Even beer and wine is going to be less rather than more.

In short, I'm not getting any younger, and I cannot rebound from a hard night of Las Vegas drinking like I used to. In fact, my plan is to make my birthday trip in October a totally sober one. Sober gambling, hmmmm.....

On other notes, College football is kicking into high gear. Saturday was my typical week zero result (0-2) but they were min bets so I'm not too worried about it. Might need to adjust some numbers though, especially on Nebraska, UCLA and Hawai'i.

Outside of that, prayers to Louisiana, I'm about done with the Paul brothers and everyone rest up, because the weekends are about to get REALLY busy.

Buckle up as this blog is about to get sports betting heavy.

A Las Vegas Blog, A Las Vegas Break.

Will be a little silent here on the blog for a little bit.

Taking a Las Vegas break.

You can follow my exploits on my Twitter feed or you can see my live (ish) trip report on Vegas Fanatics

Now, let's go win some jackpots.

Gambling: Maybe Casinos CAN "Flip the Switch" on Slot Machines?

I want to start this out by making a very clear statement:

I DO NOT BELIVE THAT THE CASINOS ARE CHEATING. I am accusing no one in this post of violating any laws, any regulations, or switching machines to the benefit, or detriment, of any one player. I am not in any way suggesting that this is happening nor do I have ANY proof that it is. I cannot be more clear about this.  All I am doing in this post is trying to extrapolate what some people might think based on news today, NOT what people are doing.

Ok, with that out of the way........

One of the more hotly contested urban legends surrounding casino slots is whether or not the machines payback percentage can be immediately changed by casinos to different levels via technology. On the one hand, you've noticed that one day casinos slots are allowing for more play and maybe even paying out then suddenly, on say.......Friday night when the casino is busy, suddenly the play goes away the jackpots stop rolling in and it appears that the machines have all gone dead.

"Balderdash" say the Casino operators, "That is too small of a sample size and we'd have to go to the gaming board to change the chip and that's just not practical, NO WAY this is true."

Except, maybe it is?

Slot Management Software Leads to Record 2Q Full House Results. Richard N. Velotta, Las Vegas Review Journal

The article is fire-walled so I'm not going to quote here, only to encourage you to go read this.

In short, Full House Resorts Inc. may have just said the quiet part out loud. Namely, that the Konami Gaming Slot Management System resulted in record profits.

The system in question is called SYNKROS and while details of it's functionality are sparse on it's website there are a couple of important things to note in the "slot" section....

"From Ticket-In-Ticket-Out (TITO) to Patron Tracking, SYNKROS supports the tools necessary for smooth slot game operations and growth. Leading advances and features built for continued optimization and performance keep players connected with the conveniences they enjoy and loyalty benefits they expect, all with comprehensive administrative analytics and control."

I'm not sure about you, but the bolded above seems to me to suggest that casinos CAN, in fact "flip the switch" on machines concerning payout percentages. I'm not suggesting that this can be used to trigger a jackpot, that would be illegal and I do not believe anything illegal is happening.  But I do think that it IS reasonable to assume that casinos can adjust payback percentages on slots at their whim. In most cases I now believe that they have pretty much cate blanche to do this provided they remain above State minimums.

How wide spread this is, and whether or not say, a Konami system could be used to control an Aristocrat slot machine?  I have no idea. But that some level of control is available, and allowed by gaming regulators, can no longer be denied?

Of course, there are some troubling concerns that this type of software raises.

1. How fine is the control that these systems allow? Is it POSSIBLE that they allow a casino to lower the hold on one machine, say, a machine that a YouTube Vlogger is currently filming themselves play?

2. Can they increase the hold on a player who has been winning?

Look, and let's be very clear here and say this again: I DO NOT believe that the casinos are cheating. And again I DO NOT believe that the casinos are cheating. One reason is because they don't HAVE to cheat, the odds are in their favor on every game inside of them. The other reason is that, if players believed they were not getting a fair game, they would go elsewhere, but I think the lesson from this is that they CAN certainly change the hold on slots without changing the EPROM chips as they claim, and that lack of transparency leads to doubt.

Even the publicly available description of SYNKROS states that it allows for "upgrades of EPROM chips remotely and instantly".  That's a pretty big thing, because EPROM chips control slot hold.

As with anything, the lack of transparency surrounding slot hold is going to be the elephant in the room. A good gambler knows and understands the odds and house edge on every game in the casino, except slots. This has always been a problem that casinos have faced convincing players that these machines are straight, fair games. Hell, even on Video Poker, where the house edge is openly discernable via the pay table that is on prominent display, some people believe casinos can change the Random Number Generator Not true by the way, but some believe it. (Although it IS an open question whether or not a RNG is truly random, but that's due to limitations in computer power, not human intervention)

News stories like this just increase this skepticism and might end up doing more harm than good in the long-run.  I would encourage casinos to become more transparent about their slot hold percentages going forward.

Because, based on this, I think the answer as to whether or not they CAN flip the switch is that Yes, they can. What we don't know is when and what the rules are around flipping said switch, or how often it happens.  And that's going to raise questions.

Gambling: Why Does the Media Continue to get Sports Betting so Wrong?

 Bloomberg: Odds are sports betting will bring trouble.

If you don't mind, take a minute before reading my response to read the article above.

Done?

Good, let's get started.

But, where to begin?

How about as his beginning, recapping the great betting scandals of the past. While all of them were pretty big scandals it's important to note one key point: In almost all of the cases the fraud was initially sniffed-out by the legalized sports books themselves. THEY presented the information to the authorities, worried about odd action on their boards.

Off-shore, gray-area sports books would, rightly, not do this, for fear of prosecution. Two wrongs do not make a right and what-not. But to act as if off-shore, illegal (in the United States) gambling is not happening is akin to pretending the Sun is not shining because you're in a room with blackout curtains and cannot see it.

The simple fact is, when it comes to uncovering fraud, better odds are with legalized, rather than off-shore books. History has shown this to be true many times over.

His second big point is about problem gamblers. And, he's right. Problem gaming is going to need to be something that the United States and the gambling industry are going to have to get a handle on quickly. They need to get ahead of the game.

Not surprisingly, the governments are not doing much to address it, other than some flowery words about "caring for the player" and what-not. The people actually doing the work are in the Industry.

Take, for example, the American Gaming Association and their page on responsible gaming. While I do feel that we're lagging behind on how to handle this, I was glad to see them mention a National Hotline for problem gambling, rather than the pock-marked system of State hotlines we have today.

It should go much further. An Opt-out request to the National system should be transmittable and transferable to all jurisdictions Nationwide. It should be a 1-800 number with qualified counselors on-call 24-7.

Casinos need to do more as well. They current track play, and they can see when someone is repeatedly hitting up the ATM.  They can back you off if they believe you are an advantage player, why can they not do the same when they suspect you are on Tilt? Probably not a permanent ban in this case, but a temporary pause. Possibly if you get too many hits on the pause button then something longer term is considered. But, and this is important, don't just make the "When the fun stops" pamphlets available, actively distribute them to a player you put on pause.

It's not often necessary to ban someone who is having a tough go. I've been there, on trips where nothing is happening and you just keep digging. Granted, I've never been so down that rabbit hole that I've taken funds needed for living, but I have lost my entire gaming budget for a trip. If you were watching me I was NOT having fun.

Today I know to take a pause, to just stop gambling for a while. I go for a walk or go back to the room and do some Yoga, I do anything but continue to pump money into those blasted video poker machines for a bit.

But, not all people do this, and alcohol is especially a retardant to doing so. I've been in casinos around the country who have let people continue to gamble despite the fact that they could barely put together a coherent sentence. Maybe pushing the pause button on them is a good idea?

There's a LOT more that goes into it, and a lot more that could be done, but arguing that liberalizing the gaming rules in States is going to lead to increased problems isn't necessarily true. The hard fact is, anyone who WANTS to gamble in the United States CAN gamble here. Either legally or illegally online or through a bookie or underground casino/game room. Those illegal options come with little to no security, player advocates or gaming commissions to make rules. They also come with no player protections or limits.

Tell me how that would be better?

We've seen that prohibition does not work, yet we continue to call for more prohibition on things we think might be risky with which we disagree.

Let's do better on this than let the media paint a false picture of what's really going on.

COVID-19: When does "Reporting" morph into "Rooting"?

Oh my GAWD it's a Doomsday Variant.

A Doomsday COVID Variant Worse Than Delta and Lambda May Be Coming, Scientists Say

The article under the bold headline goes on to offer a ton of scary predictions.

"COVID might be with us FOREVER!!!!"

"We've UNDERESTIMATED this virus every step of the way!!!"

and finally......

"Is there a variant coming that's going to be like HIV and kill us ALL???"

Let's stop, take a break and look at how these things have gone in the past.

First things first, there are a LOT of respiratory viruses hanging out in the world. The Common Cold, Flu, SARS, MERS, viral pneumonia.  All of them have been around a long time, they are impossible to fully eradicate, and we go about our lives living with them, and coping with them as a society without flipping the freak out every time a new variant comes along. 

The annual flu shot is basically an inoculation against a different strain of flu every year. Eventually, the goal should be to get our response to SARS-CoV-2 to a similar level to seasonal flu. Yes, we are at the beginning of this process and those mean pharmaceutical companies have done yeoman's work getting us to this point: A vaccine that works remarkably well given the time crunch for developing it, and a greater understanding of methods of transmission.

What has NOT changed is the breathless way the media is reporting on it, or how the ruling class is responding.  These are problems.

For the ruling class the problem is that we're still looking at solutions that do not work. Lockdowns, utterly useless, are being contemplated again, as are mask mandates (which might work some) and a renewal of capacity restraints and social distancing requirements (which probably DO work) but the we're getting perilously close to a time where we're going to start locking down parks again, against all common sense, and we're hearing rumors of a 2nd lockdown, which I've said before might be ruinous to the economy and what we (just) remember of our free society.

For the media this is morphing into sheer boosterism. Reporters WANT suffering, they WANT death, and now they are openly rooting for it. Why is this? Clicks and sales. It's no mystery that the media is suffering financially of late, and what better to spur sales than a good old fashioned extinction level event? So what if some freedoms have to be sacrificed in the meantime? We've even had media come out against the First Amendment, as it applies to you, not to them. This is not too terribly surprising since many of them truly feel the FA only really applied to them in the first place, and they're not afraid to carry the ruling classes water to ensure it does.

For now the only advice I can give is to mask up, maintain social distancing, maintain proper hygiene and, if you are so inclined, get vaccinated. Then hope like hell some common sense makes it into this World.

Because, if it does not, we're going to be dealing with this mess for years.  And it's only going to get worse and more restrictive.

Finally, take all of this reporting with a huge grain of salt. Even within the "OH MY GAWD WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!" histrionics of the above article this author has to admit that the DOOMSDAY scenario Newsweek is pimping here is extremely unlikely because well....science.

In short, what he's writing is science fiction. A fever dream of something really bad that he saw in the movie Contagion.

Keep that in mind.

2021 Major League Baseball: Boo Hoo

 Last night, fans of the Los Angeles Dodgers had a mad, and then they had a sad.

Yup, the Astros won 3-0 over the "lily pure" Dodgers (the 'pure' Dodgers who have three players on their team that played for the Boston Red Sox when they were also caught stealing signs) and the fans were angry.

They threw things on the field, they used gay slurs, they used profanity. They pretty much went full Mexico soccer fan and idiots like Bob Nightengale and the rest of the MLB National media think this is just fine.

They think it's fine because the Baseball Writers Association truly believes that they are the gatekeepers of "true baseball". They believe that is is through their word processors, and only their word processors, that the ghosts of Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth view the game from whatever plane of existence they find themselves these days.

But, guess what?

The Astros think it's fine as well. They laugh at these stooges with their overpriced beers Hoovering hot dogs as fast as they can screaming with their mouth's full in bitter anger. Letting a group of people who have zero impact on their regular lives control their emotions to such an extent.

Then, they just go out and win, so far, this year.  Win to the point that they have the best record in the American League. Infuriating those who think they are "pure" ('pure' to the point that their staff ERA has risen since the dirty ball issue) go apoplectic with rage.

In a way, this is sports. "Fan" is short for "Fanatic" after all.  And to be a "fan" one must necessarily be blind to the faults of their team and cast blame everywhere else but internally for why they lose. For the fan, their HAS to be a bogeyman or the entire myth falls apart. Professional sports, specifically, rely on this.

When you think about it there is little reason for you to root for a team in the city you live. At heart, they are a private enterprise who just happens to call your chosen, or birth, city home. But sports franchises have done something brilliant, they have convinced communities that they are somehow part of a City's fabric like no other company is. They have convinced people that the team's success and failures are also their successes and failures, that who you are is wrapped up in how your team does.

When you look at it, it's all bollocks.  In Houston, the Astros, Rockets and Texans are no more representative of the community than are many of the large Oil and Gas companies that headquarter there, and the teams employ way less citizens, they contribute less to the local economy, and their vaunted charitable contributions are way less, although way more publicized. If the oil and gas industry crumbles then Houston as a city follows shortly behind. If the Texans, or Rockets or Astros crumble....few outside of those who work in the stadiums will be all that affected.

I'm sorry, this is just truth.

So, scream away Dodgers fans, vent thy spleens. At the end of the day you're probably doing the Astros more good than harm. You forget that these are, for the most part, wealthy players that could honestly give two shits about your beer-bellied bellowing.

You're an amusement, a source of income. Lose them or hate them you pay to see them.

And that's the bottom line.

Las Vegas: The Masks are Back on, will Increased Cancellations Follow?

 Last Friday marked the first day of Gov. Sisolak's new mandatory indoor mask order. By all accounts compliance is fairly high. (Which is good) But there are signs that this order could lead to people just not coming. Such is the dance that Governor Pickleball is trying to accomplish, slow the spread of COVID-19 in the State while keeping the life-blood pumping. Results from May and June showed record gambling hauls, which is good for the budget, but rumors and tales of %40+ cancellation rates at some casinos have some worried.

What Vegas does not want, and I'm not sure it can handle, is another lockdown. In fact, I'm not sure that a second wide-spread American lockdown results in the same country coming out as we had coming in. These are perilous times for the City, the State and the Country. How our elected ruling class chooses to handle this is very important.

This is a blog that focuses mainly on gaming, Las Vegas hotel/casinos and sports. But I do realize that there is a political undercurrent to everything and I will address these issues without being partisan. In this case, there are many within the Vegas community that are just starting to regain their financial footing and ripping the floor out beneath of them in the form of a second shutdown would be catastrophic. Couple this with Congress' inability to address the evection issue and a settling of the market seems imminent. For all of those screaming at Biden, I don't see how he's really at fault on this one given that the SCOTUS has all but tied his hands. The bad guys here are the people who made the decisions that lockdowns were the way to go initially, and that shuttering businesses, throttling travel and pretty much decimating the service industry were the way to curb the pandemic, despite these options never being in America's pandemic toolkit before.

In short, we looked at what China did and said "Hey, that might be a good idea" forgetting that America's government works much differently than Chinas and, despite what Professor Doctor Hotez thinks, we cannot deploy the military to enforce a National lockdown where people are being welded into their apartments.

While masks might provide some protection (to be perfectly honest, the jury is still out on that) what we know does work, social distancing and capacity restraints, are something the casinos want to avoid as well. I can guarantee you that the last thing they want to do is shut down 1/2 of the slot machines and be forced to put the Plexiglass dividers back up.

Then there is the problem of the shows. Packed arenas create super-spreader opportunities due to a large amount of contact time and tight spaces. But, as we've seen, the shows are not profitable at 50% capacity and some shows cannot operate with guests wearing masks.

What does all of this mean?

For one, our hopes that the availability of the vaccines meant that this whole mess was over was probably a little over optimistic and naive. There was always going to be a large portion of the population who was vaccine resistant to one degree or another, and it seems that "victory" in this war has been falsely defined by the ruling class as "zero COVID" which was always a bad metric.

The goal here should be to manage COVID-19 to where it becomes a danger on par with seasonal flu. The only way to get there is through a combination of contact immunity and vaccinations. At that point, when herd "immunity*" is reached, then all restrictions should come to an end.

My worry however, is that they won't. COVID has become a political animal and several in the ruling class have realized that they can use their new-found power to advance political goals, move society unwillingly in directions they think it should go and punish unfavored industries. This is a political problem that's not going away, and it might radically alter the future of Las Vegas.

To what extent is the question we're all asking now. 

Las Vegas Downtown Casinos: The Ones I do not Like. (And One that I like, but dislike as well)

On Saturday I made a list of the Downtown casinos that I like. For this list I'm going to offer up the ones that I don't like, and tell you why I do not like them. Again, we all have different criteria for grading casinos/hotels etc. so my list will likely be much, much different than yours.

Nothing in this post is meant to suggest that the casinos below are "bad" in any way, it's just that I've either had sub-par experiences in them, find them lacking for my tastes in one manner or another or that I think they're underperforming.

With that said, let's get to it.

1. Binion's Gambling Hall 

Everything about Binion's today makes me sad. From the general state of the property to walking in the casino at certain times only to find no active craps tables (something that would have Benny Binion rolling in his grave) to the large swaths of the casino floor that are all but bare, or poorly setup, to the fact that the poker room is gone. The only good thing about Binion's currently is the Whiskey Liquor Up and even that's underwhelming in terms of food, service and video poker odds.  The owners, the same folks who own on of my favorites 4Queens fwiw, really need to take a hard look at what's happening here because right now it's just depressingly sad.

2. The Plaza

To say that my March stay at the Plaza was a disappointment would be an understatement. I have never been as underwhelmed by a hyped property as I was there. If you want to see many of the problems that I had you can see my YouTube video here. (apologies for Mrs. TPMs profanity at the Pizza Joint, she was having a good time). from a dirty, decrepit room that had gouge marks on the bathroom door which made it look like someone was trying to break the door down with a screwdriver, to no refrigerator to just a general dirtiness the room was a mess. The service and attitude of the staff were worse. Never have I stayed at a place that just did not seem to want my gambling dollar as much as here. The staff was rude, unhelpful, and left us stranded for hours with no options for checking our bags as we awaited our car transfer so we were forced to lug them around with us. I have never been treated as poorly by a hotel/casino and will not be back.  Since I don't have a large YouTube following I doubt they care. Truth is, if you don't have a large YouTube following they probably won't care either.

3. Gold Spike 

OK, granted, this is not a casino, but it is a place with some of the longest lines downtown and I absolutely despise waiting in line. Also, it's much overrated considering what it is. I've only visited there a couple of times and walked away very underwhelmed. Granted, I'm not their target demographic but it's just not my cup of tea.

4. Fremont Casino

My main problem with the Fremont is that they seem to have given up. The place is just bland and that's a shame because it could be so much more. Maybe my opinion of it will change after they finish their planned room renovations, combining all rooms in a 2 for 1 deal to increase the space and make them all suites. That said, they really need to freshen up the gaming area and my standing problem with Boyd is that they have totally devalued their B Connected loyalty program in a manner that flips the bird to video poker players.

5. Downtown Grand

I really do want to like the Downtown Grand. The casino is smallish, but has potential, and their Center Bar progressives on DDB can be among the best in town. Their problem is that they cannot decide what they want to be. Management there changes direction more times than a glider in a hurricane, from good gambling odds to bad gambling odds and nothing they do seems to be catching on. Their casino has all of the energy of a funeral parlor and their staff has clearly thrown in the towel. I hear the hotel is doing well but staying and playing there is depressing.

The one that I both Like and Dislike:

El Cortez

I've stayed at the El Cortez twice, and both times really enjoyed my stay. The Cabana Suites across the street (although still part of the hotel) are quirky and wonderful and, given the presence of 24 hour security at the door, are probably the safest rooms downtown. The staff there is welcoming, friendly and go out of their way (at times) to really make you feel appreciated. The one exception to this are some of the bartenders who are downright surly or dismissive. That's a problem they need to address. My biggest problem with the El Cortez is that I never really feel comfortable in their casino. It's not a safe environment at times and that's really off-putting. They have a great player's club and good comps and promotions, and fairly decent odds on all games, but I've seen more fights in that casino than I've seen anywhere else and security always seems slow to respond. It's a shame because the place has a crap ton of history and Siegel's is an underrated gem of a restaurant.

Las Vegas Downtown Casinos: The Ones that I Like

Lately, I've been busy whiling away my free hours slamming the Las Vegas Strip for turning itself into a price-gouging, violence ridden, wasteland of a place for tourists looking to have a good time. And, while I admit that I'm akin to King Canute standing on the beach trying to stop the tide, I still AM a fan of Las Vegas and really do enjoy going there.

With that in mind I thought that I'd discuss today a part of Las Vegas that I am fan of, and also provide a listing of where I like to go and why I like to go there. This is not a list of the "best" casinos downtown. For one, coming up with a list is silly, there are criteria that I have for a good casino that you might discount, and really those types of things are only designed to drive page clicks and online outrage.

Instead, these are the places that I like to visit, and stay at, when I'm staying Downtown......

1. The D Casino

I like pretty much everything about this place. Which does not mean that it does not have it's faults. For one, it's too loud at times, and not the best place to wake up in the morning and nurse a hangover. For two, you have to be very careful which video poker game you choose to play and where you play it. The Long Bar, which is still my favorite bar in Las Vegas, has one of the worst Bonus Poker pay tables downtown. However the upstairs Vue Bar, has one of the best. The rooms are smallish but they are well maintained and actually fairly well insulated from outdoor noise. I've never had a poor customer service experience at this place and the food options are top notch. For budget dinging I highly recommend All-American Coneys and Andiamo's is still one of the best steakhouses in town period.

2. 4Queens

This old lady is showing a little age on it's rooms, and it does suffer from the problem that most downtown hotels suffer in that it's rooms are tiny compared to the Strip. But I've always found the beds to be comfortable, the rooms to be clean and the value here to be pretty damn good. Their two VP bars (Mike's and King's Bar) are among the best for VP play and people watching, both the DDB progressives and the Jack's or Better Suited progressive games can be very profitable. The bartenders are among the nicest and best and while they're not "flair" like you find at the Stephen's brother's casinos they do pour a strong drink and keep your cup full. While I really do miss Wana Taco, Magnolia's is a great spot for breakfast and Hugo's Cellar is an underrated throwback dining gem. Chicago Brewing company is an outstanding option for craft beer and bar food. I've never had a bad experience here, even while losing at gambling.

3. Golden Gate

One of the oldest hotels in Vegas and a casino that's really been modernized and made fun by the Stephen's brothers.  The VP bar odds are not great but the vibe is usually pretty solid and if you don't mind a loud casino (a thing for Stephen's casinos) then the place is pretty all around cool. The rooms are tiny, but the "Original 10" experience is something you should try once, and seeing the dividing line on the hallway wall where the original building stops and the new one begins (this is on the 2nd floor) is really cool. No real options for food here, but you can avail yourself of the Circa options (your food credit is good there) right across the street. To me, staying at Golden Gate and having the Circa amenities available to you is the power play on Fremont Street.

4. Golden Nugget

For me, the Golden Nugget is about three things: Some of the best rooms on Fremont (excluding Circa), a great pool, and some very solid dining options. Unfortunately the casino is pretty much a no-gambling zone in Tillman Ferttita's "It's all about the ROI" world but the rest of the resort is above average. Grotto for lunch is an underrated option and the Chart House has excellent seafood. Vic & Anthony's is a solid although not spectacular steak house but it will not disappoint. The rooms however are great, especially if you can grab a Rush Tower room. If you do gamble there the good news is that some of your comps, will also transfer to Landry's restaurants off property. (Subject to certain restrictions). All and all a solid place to stay.

5. Circa

I could be obtuse, and a contrarian, and leave this off of the list, but that would mean that I'm also a liar because I really do like this place. Let's start off with the party pieces, the Sports Book and Stadium Swim. They are spectacular and are the best sports book and pool in the City, and I'm including the Strip. The food options are many and all are good. Some even great. The Legacy Club is a sunset destination. The rooms are new and shiny and well thought out, they have supplanted the Golden Nugget as the best rooms downtown. And while I LOVE the Mega Bar, and the Overlook Bar let's get to the warts.  This place is EXPENSIVE with a capital EXPENSIVE. Food prices are high, the gambling odds are not good, and while the bartenders are great and nice the prices for drinks are out of this world high, think Las Vegas strip levels. The old saying is that you never want to own the nicest house in a poor neighborhood. My long-term worry is that Circa is just that and is going to struggle.

Honorable Mention:

The California

Post renovation the casino here is a very nice place to be. I've never stayed at the Hotel because, as a Video Poker Play Boyd does not value my business, but the Hawaiian food here is solid.

Main Street Station

Currently closed, there are several video poker players/craft beer fans, including myself, that are waiting semi-patiently for the return of the Boar's Head bar and 777 Brewery.

The Las Vegas Strip: Casinos that I like

Lately I've been pretty negative regarding the Las Vegas Strip. I've publically sworn off any Caesars properties and I've made my dislike of MGM properties well known for a while now. That said, there are resorts on the Strip that I really do enjoy visiting and to try and turn around this negativity (because blogging is FUN dammit) I thought I'd list out the Strip casinos that I like and mention why I like them.

1. The Cosmopolitan

Even as a card carrying old guy, I find the Cosmo to be good fun. Yes I'm tragically unhip and probably 20-25 years older than their target demographic but I just really find the Cosmo to be an overall fun place. Like many, I enjoy the Chandelier Bar but my go to is the Sports Book bar where Atilla and Heather are two of the nicest bartenders around. Block 16 is great eats, as is the Pizza shop, and while pricey, the tacos at China y Pablano are go-to food for Mrs. TPM. the restaurant choices there are without equal, and the rooms are spectacular.  Easily my favorite casino resort on the Strip and it's not close. Yes, they are pricey, and the table games are horrid, but for VP they're a notch above Caesars/MGM and that's about the best you can hope for these days (sadly)

2. Treasure Island

Two things I like about TI: Their bartop video poker and their pool. One thing I dislike, their relatively poor dining choices.  Although the seafood place is pretty good outside of that things could be much better. They have a very nice casino with many options for slot players, and fair video poker pay tables. Their table games are Strip normal (which means they suck) but their rooms are nice, can frequently be found at decent prices and their cabana rental rates are reasonable for the Strip. Customer service there is friendly, and the cabana attendants that served us were very personable, prompt and pleasant. All in all I really like TI and it's a go to for me when visiting the Strip.

3. Wynn and Encore

Steve Wynn had his personal demons and, while his legal issues are still in litigation, there's no denying that he has left a lasting legacy on the Las Vegas Strip. "WynnCore" was the beginning of the de-theming movement on the Strip (for better or for worse) and is (honestly) the epitome of customer service. You're going to pay at Wynn properties but you are not going to be disappointed. two of the most luxurious properties on the Strip with great food options, wonderful lounges and bars, and two of the prettiest gaming areas around, there's not a lot to dislike about either place outside of them costing you your first born.

4. Venetian and Palazzo

The main gripe you from people regarding these sister properties is that they are (were) owned by Sheldon Adelson. This is yet another case where people are unable to separate their politics from their enjoyment of life and that's too bad. I, for one, enjoyed nothing more than getting the chance to win Sheldon's money and the two resorts themselves are beautiful. Much like WynnCore, the service is outstanding, the decor is beautiful and the Venetian Shoppes are one of the best places in Las Vegas to spend some time not gambling. The rooms are all suites and are fantastic. Now that Sands has bailed on Vegas there's really no reason to not check them out. Again like WynnCore, you're going to pay, and their pay tables are atrocious. They also win the booby prize for introducing into the world the scourge that is 000 Roulette but other than that they're a great place to visit.

5. Aria

I know, I know, I spend ages cracking on MGM and then list one of their resorts as a casino that I like on the Strip.  Here's the thing: I like staying and dining there, not so much gambling there. the rooms are spectacular as are the food choices. The paella at Julian Serrano's Tapas is world class. When I do play there it's typically at the tiny Gem Bar, where if you can find Manny there might not be a better bartender on the Strip in terms of friendliness. The pool is incredible, albeit pricey, and the pool staff is warm and nice. Yes, it's MGM so the fees are going to be legion and you will be nickel and dimed almost to death, and there are rough edges around customer service that they need to work out (especially at he front desk, which is awful) but overall the casino is beautiful, the front desk area is a spectacle, and the positives here do outweigh the negatives in my opinion.

Non gambling honorable mention.

Vdara

The Vdara is certainly not for everyone. They have no casino but they do have all suites, the City Corner Suite is amazing, and they really don't have any dining options. But, you're close to Aria and Cosmo so eating well is just a short walk away. The pool area, especially if you get a Cabana, is spectacular although not a party pool if that is what you are looking for. The Lobby Bar is a beautiful place to pay a lot for a cocktail.

Incomplete:

Resorts World

I have not yet visited this property so it's not going to be on any list. Of course, it's on YouTube everywhere but the Vlogs so far have only mainly focused on the pool and sheer size of the place. At this point it could go on my "likes" or "dislikes" place I just don't know.

Vegas Golden Knights: "What in the World is Going on Out Here?????"

First, the Golden Knights traded away Marc Andre Fleury and the fans went bonkers.

I was, admittedly, bummed about this but was willing to give the Golden Knights brain-trust the benefit of the doubt and wait and see what they were able to accomplish with this new found cap space. OK, I said to myself, loving Fleury is rough, but I agree that having the Cap space to re-sign Alex Martinez and signing a quality center will make them a better team going forward.

This, is not what happened.

Yes, the Golden Knights re-signed Martinez, which is good, but then they traded for Evginii Dadonov, a declining winger from Ottawa, giving up promising defenseman Nick Holden and a 3rd round draft pick. My guess is with Dadonov that they hope his decline in Ottawa was more to to Ottawa than Dadonov, but they still haven't solved their most glaring problem.

After Dadonov, they announced the signing of a new backup goalie, Laurent Broissoi formerly of Winnipeg, whos was a fine backup for them but who is nowhere close to the quality of Fleury.

All of that cap space is now gone. I saw on Twitter where they have about $186K remaining, but they still have to sign the RFA Patrick to the qualified offer that they made to him.

So, let's recap. They've traded away the face of the franchise and the most beloved, and the best, player during the entire life of the team (Not to mention the locker room leader, community giant, etc.) for a sack of beans and have used that salary cap room to make the team markedly worse.

The thing people keep pointing to is the mythical Eichel trade, which will probably involve moving either (or more likely both) Pacioretty and Tuch.

Think the fans are going to be happy with that one?

And I haven't even gone into the mess of how GM Kelly McKrimmon treats players, and what might, or might not have happened with communication with Fleury regarding the trade.

This is an easy team to root for on the ice, but a helluva difficult franchise to pull for off it.

Right now the BEST CASE scenario for Knight's fans is that Davadov was bad because of Ottawa, that Lehner has a career year and Boissoi can provide enough quality minutes to spell Panda and keep him from being exhausted come playoff time. They also have to hope that their current crop of centers finally produce during playoff time, and that the Power Play miraculously gets fixed, and they they don't go into a scoring funk AGAIN when the post season rolls around.

Also in the equation, would be that Eichel is healthy and Davadov and he could increase goal production from Patches and Tuch.

These are big asks, and if any of them go South it could be that Vegas misses the playoffs for the first time in their history, or flames out in an early round.

Should the latter two scenarios happen then I think a house cleaning will be needed, both on the ice, on the bench and in the front office.

Very important season ahead for everyone methinks.

2021 Olympics: Your "Not A Sport" reply is old, tired and (in most cases) inaccurate.

It never fails.

ESPN, or some other media outlet, will post a Tweet with the results of some Olympic event, and two or three people, in a moment of what they believe to be wit, will respond with "Not a sport" and wait for the entire world to laugh and like their tweet.

I've seen the reply to Judo, Taekwando, Gymnastics, Volleyball and Softball.

Never mind that, in all of those cases, the characterization is 100% wrong, it's also lazy, insipid, and sad that the responders one brain wave of the day is limited to trying to garner a reaction from a sport's fans.

Much of it is unserious trolling, but there is something concrete that we can take from this. Namely that we've so watered down the definition of "sport" that even contests like beauty pageants and dog shows are throwing it out without a trace of irony in an attempt to legitimize what it is they do.

Of course, no amount of definition (or logic) will ever truly stop Internet trolling and the answer is never to censor such nonsense, but there still does need to be some fixed set of criteria for what is a "sport" and what is not. To facilitate this discussion I propose the following categories for your amusement.

Sport: "An athletic endeavor contested between two or more individuals/teams with the goal of completing assigned tasks within the field of play which is won by either completing the task the quickest or scoring the most amount of points in a set time."

Examples: American Football, European Football, Basketball, Baseball, Track & Field, Swimming, Softball, Volleyball, Tennis etc.

Judged Sport: "An athletic endeavor contested between two or more individuals/teams with the goal of completing assigned tasks within the field of play whose results are judged by an outside panel, who then assign points based on a set of criteria to determine a winner."

Examples: Gymnastics, Skateboarding, Ice Skating, Diving, etc.

Competition: "An event, usually judged, that contains no athletic effort but is competitive in nature."

Examples: Dog shows, beauty pageants, bodybuilding, Poker, etc.

You may not agree with all of the examples that I provided, and the lists above are by no means exhaustive, and there could need to be some debate around certain events (shooting is one that comes to mind) but I think these three categories could serve as a good starting point for the discussion of what is sport and what is, in fact, just a competition. If you would like, another category "athletic competition" could be included for a competition such as bodybuilding which DOES take some athletic activity in order to compete and win but which is, in fact, still just a beauty pageant with steroids.

What say you?

COVID-19, Vegas and You. Cancelling Trips or Nah?

As we muddle through what was supposed to be our grand, bring America back, Summer a few stumbling blocks have appeared in our road to full recovery.

Vegas, it appears, is NOT as back as we have been led to believe, nor is the hospitality industry as vaccinated as we were led to believe. As cases in Clark County surge, primarily due to the Delta variant, and County leaders have mandated that masks go back on the worker's faces, if not the public who is largely importing this virus.

Post-Vaccine availability it was expected that Vegas was about to enter a new "golden age", for casino profits that is. The expectation being that people who had been cooped up for over a year were beyond ready to hit the pools, the night clubs, the shows, etc. And early numbers showed this to be true. In fact, after things opened up on June 1st Vegas was overflowing. People were coming out of the woodworks to drink booze, pass out on the Strip, lose money and generally spend a ton of money doing Vegas things.

This played out as advertised for a while, but now it appears that rising COVID-19 cases, both in Clark County and as a result of people travelling to Las Vegas, is starting to blunt the demand. Rumors are that airport arrivals are, just recently down, and traffic isn't as bad as usual on the highways. Anecdotal evidence yes, but based on the offers that I'm seeing from the casinos evidence is there that they are suddenly scrambling to fill rooms.

Which, finally, winds around to the point of this post:  Are you still planning your Las Vegas trip or are you postponing it until a later time?

For me, the answer is that I'm still going. Granted, Mrs. TPM and I are a special case in that a. we're both fully vaxxed and b. we have no kids or other family living with us that would be a concern.

For others I'm sure the calculus is not as cut and dried. But it would be interesting to understand just how large the "I'm going no matter what" contingent in relation to the "nope, not at this time" group.

DOES Las Vegas have a COVID-19 perception problem? Are the casino workers 100% vaccinated at certain properties like they claimed?  Or were some playing a little fast and loose with the numbers?

Regardless of any of that one thing is clear: Cases (and more worryingly hospitalizations) are rising, suggesting that Clark County has a vaccination issue that needs to be addressed.

Are you going to allow them to address it?  Or are you going just because dammit you need that Vegas fix and will live with the consequences?

One last coda to this: Despite the fact that we're fully vaxxed there is the possibility that Mrs. TPM and I will be donning masks in casinos in solidarity with the workers who are required to do so, and out of simple politeness to them.

Yes, we expect to get some weird looks for this. Then again, we might not for the simple reason that it sends a bad message about the effectiveness of vaccines. I'm still working through which option is better.

Hail (and Farewell) Caesar

For a long time now I'm devoted a not insignificant amount of time writing, and Tweeting, about why the Strip is no longer for me. The odds are bad, CNF (and other) fees suck, the place is now just a tire-fire of people wandering around losing money on bad games etc.

Now Caesars Entertainment has decided you cannot visit their Sportsbooks without paying for a seat. (h/t Marc Meltzer)

Whatever. 

Caesars is currently leading MGM in the race to the bottom. They offer worse odds, no longer grandfather players in at tables when the minimums are raised, and now they want $80 to sit in a chair and bet on football?

And, let's face facts, it is not as if Caesars properties are the crown jewels of Vegas. The images of dirty rooms, hallways, elevators, parking garages and other common areas are legion. They are rapidly deteriorating properties that offer nothing for those wanting to have a good time. Even Caesars Palace is a shadow of it's former self. Limping along on a past reputation offering up very expensive "experiences" at the cost of actually having a good time.

Not to mention all of the news reports showing the Strip has become a tad bit fighty and shooty of late.

There is still, just, The Cosmopolitan, WynnCore and Venetian/Palazzo that are nice, and I'm still a believer that Treasure Island is somewhat underrated. Resorts World shows promise, but not for gambling, and the jury is still out on whether or not Phil Ruffin and company are going to do anything worthwhile with Circus Circus, or if they can capitalize on being adjacent to the Strip's shiny new toy.

What is somewhat clear is that the former winner of the Strip wars, the South end, and even the middle, is all but a no fly zone. Maybe, in a non-gambling mode, you check out the Linq Promenade from time to time and see the Bellagio Fountains and Conservatory but outside of that?

Any future forays onto Las Vegas most famous tourist trap are going to be limited to the North end, and Cosmo. More frequently however, you're going to find me Downtown and off-Strip, far away from the fees, the overcharging, the short-pouring and the general nastiness that has become the Las Vegas Strip.

You certainly will not see me frequenting any Caesars property. Their customer unfriendly business decisions since the merger have made them unvisitable. I don't care if they offer to pay me to go. (Which, they won't because I'm not an #Influencer.)

It's really too bad, because I used to like visiting Caesars Palace, walking through the Shoppes, eating at Trevi, getting a cigar at Monte Cristo.....No more.

It's not me Caesars, it's you.

The Las Vegas Strip 2021: $9 Bread, 6/5 Blackjack and 000 Roulette.

And we haven't even mentioned all of the fees......

News from Mark Metzer that Giada (the Cromwell based vanity project of the incredibly large-headed Giada DeLaurentis) is Now charging $9 for her bread plate where it used to be free, and it's now sans the dried capers that everyone seemed to like.

$9.  For a bread plate. You can feed two people for that eating fast food, or at a taco truck in Houston. ($1 street tacos are where it's at y'all)

For me, the Strip has been much a no-go for a while now. Sure, I'll drop by the Bellagio to watch the fountains and see the Conservatory, possibly drop into The Cosmopolitan to eat at Lardo and maybe play some VP at their sports book bar, but outside of that?

IF I'm gambling there it's just throwing $40 bucks into a quarter VP machine with some friends, or maybe the same amount of money on a slot or three. I NEVER play table games there because the odds are putrid, and I tend to steer my gambling budget away from days that I'm going to be on the Strip. My daily gambling budget for a day on the Strip is a full quarter of what it would be for a day off Strip, probably not even a fifth of my budget for locals casinos.

All that said, one of the primary reasons that I visit Vegas is to gamble. Although it's becoming less about that as the trips go on. On my upcoming August trip I plan to gamble less in a week than I just gambled over 2.5 days at River Spirit in Tulsa, and about the same as I gamble in 2 days at my local.

Why is this?

Well, for one, the odds are better away from Vegas for the most part. The once "Gambling Capitol of the World" is now the "Shitty Gambling Capitol of the World" putting in things that would not fly at any other casino. So far, due to a lack of give a shit by a drunken public just happy to be back out in the world, they are getting away with it to the tune of a record $1.23 Billion gambling haul in May, the highest single-month win in the State's history.

By all appearances, they are accomplishing this IN SPITE of themselves.

Between some of the worst posted odds in the world, "innovations" that are continually player unfriendly, and an ever-growing laundry list of fees, Las Vegas today is living up to it's new "Only Vegas" marketing line.

Only Las Vegas has shit odds and as many fees as you'll find in the world. And it's coming at the expense of value.

The issue is that the casino resorts really believe that they are something special in this world today, that Vegas as a draw is going to continue no matter how much they gouge the customers. That the demand that they've witnessed post-COVID, which was a perfect storm of people being tired of lock downs and stimulus money, is going to continue unabated.

In short, they are doing this because they think that they CAN. There seems to be no one on the executive floors of these corporations asking if they SHOULD.

And that's going to be a problem.

Already signs are there that the post-lockdown boom is rapidly coming to a close. Not only are COVID-19 cases again on the rise, due in large part to casinos rapidly abandoning the safety protocols that kept them contained in the first place, but people are just starting to find other things to do.

Gambling and losing is expected, sitting down to a blackjack table, after paying for your flight, room, resort fee, parking and some extremely high taxes partly to pay for the Raider's Stadium, waiting an hour for a cab/Uber/Lyft, waiting in long lines for check-in to a room that's shoddy at best, only to find the odds are 2 times worse than you can find at your local casino is downright discouraging.

People come to Vegas hopeful for a good time, they leave bemoaning $2000 bottle service in a night club that's packed beyond capacity and a possible Delta Variant to boot. If they did not go to a night club, they paid way too much for a cabana at a pool that's apparently increasingly under-chlorinated and choked with too many people.

Then your gambling sucks, because the odds are so depleted winning is impossible, and now you're being charged $9 for a few tiny slices of bread.

At some point, people are going to say "enough" and just decide the city is not worth it any more.

That day may be closer in coming than many think.

Las Vegas Vlogs: The Simple Problem of Community.

When Resorts World conducted their soft opening on June 24th to much fanfare and many live Vlogs, the wife and I spent the evening bouncing back and forth between a few of them to check out the new resort, and to get an idea of the opening festivities.

We saw the pool.

And many blurry shots of Paris Hilton in the distance.

We also saw lines and people walking around the mall area, running into other Vloggers doing the same thing. There was the tell-tale fuzzy footage of a wi-fi system being stretched beyond it's maximum band-width and then more shots of the pool. And Paris Hilton again, I think. It was terribly hard to make out.

We also saw footage of many, many Vegas Vloggers walking to the place, and almost all of them getting the "insider" tip that the Conrad entrance was WAY easier to get into than the main entrances, and we witnessed the confusion by almost all regarding where the pool actually was.

Then we saw the pool, and someone who might have possibly been Paris Hilton.

Fast forward to last week and the subject du jour was Posh Burger. I've seen around 15 Vlogs about this place (Did you know it replaced the Burger Bar at Aria? Or that it offers a $100 burger?) and they are all pretty much the same.

The new trend is to cross the streams, vloggers vlogging vloggers vlogging other vloggers virtual group pulls or vlogger meet-ups that are partially vlogged by other vloggers vlogging people who are vlogging them, usually talking to even more vloggers.

To be perfectly honest, I have now limited my viewing to a select few, and pretty much just gloss over the rest. I've unsubscribed to many of late because the content on offer is just not original or new.

Look, I'm not going to name names here. The intention of this is to not "shame" anyone or disparage their product. Some of the ones that I ignore might be among your favorites and that's fine. And, to be perfectly honest, unless you're trying to make a living out of this who and what you vlog should not really be driven by anyone other than you.

I'm sure this is going to anger some who vlog and I can live with that, because the criticism here is meant to be constructive rather than destructive. Many people are working hard on their vlogs almost daily and they should be commended for that.

But, and this is important, from an entertainment, informative perspective things are going a little off the rails.

And this is a problem, because some of the vloggers regurgitating the same things claim to be being made with the intent of educating folks about Vegas. But, by just showing other vloggers and meet-ups and all heading to the same places, you're not.

Now, other vlogs are just put out there as video logs of a person, or couple's, trip through Vegas, and from that scenario vlogging vloggers vlogging is perfectly fine. That WAS your trip after all.

Also, in today's day and age a sense of community is important, and I would argue that there is no stronger community than this one of Vegas Vloggers, of which I am on the periphery (by choice and by circumstance [and the fact that I sucked at vlogging]). So in some aspects vlogs showing groups of vloggers running around looking for Strippers and Cocaine (by "strippers" we mean pizza and by "cocaine", we mean donuts usually) is a GOOD thing because it does show a way Vegas can be, a great place to meet new friends, do fun things and gain a ton of followers doing just that.

But some diversity of content can go a long way.

Perhaps that's the problem with the Las Vegas Strip right now as a whole, and why I pretty much avoid it at all costs. There IS no diversity of content on the Strip. It's all night clubs and bottle service and people walking around to the next big club. EVERYONE is required by law to say that Pizza Rock has the best Pizza in Vegas, that the Plaza is the Bestest downtown hotel. Which it is, IF you've got a sizable vlog following and are catered to by Jonathan Jossell, if not, then it's a pretty crappy experience to be perfectly honest, full of surly, unhelpful staff, dirty, dated rooms and a casino floor on which it's impossible to find an empty VP bartop because the bartenders are talking to their friends, or vloggers, who are not gaming..

When the casino is catering to you and clearing out places to play for free advertising it's the bee's knees. If you're just a schmuck with a camera, 30 something followers and no advertising angle it's really not all that.

But I digress....

When I decided to hang up my pathetic attempt at a vlog it was not because I did not like the other Las Vegas Vloggers. Far from it. I have met a few and like many of them. I quit because I suck at it, I'm boring and people do not want to follow along and look at my pictures with captions because I forgot to record shit. Even when I did remember to record shit the quality was bad and I could not be bothered to purchase decent editing software. Shit, I would not have followed me.

This is not sour grapes. Many of these people are brilliant at editing and creating content and they really put a lot of effort into it, their vlogs are very enjoyable and we like watching them very much.

It's just that I think more diversity in content is going to be needed if the genre is going to survive and thrive.

Of course, what the hell do I know? I only convinced 38 people to follow me.

Be safe, bet smart, win Jackpots. (and vlog them if you do)

Las Vegas News: 07/22/2021

 All the stuff you need to know in one handy link blog.....

Employees, not public, mandated for masks in Clark County (LVRJ) - Will you be donning one just because?  I might in August out of politeness toward the employees. (if the mandate is still on)

RIP Layne Flack (LVRJ) - One of the architects of the "Poker Boom" and one of the all-time greats of poker.

For $60 Million you could own the Aztec Inn (LRVJ) - No word if there is extra charge for the stuff in the carpets.

Circa's Contest is Greatly Impacting the SuperBook's Contest. (LVSun) - Circa seems to be taking the lead on the SuperBook, which has definitely lost it's fastball of late.

Vegas' most prominent eye-sore gets (another) tentative opening date. (LVRJ) - I'll believe it when I see it.

Live Keno is rapidly disappearing (Vital Vegas) - The Griswold's are going to be gutted.

A reminder that light rail advocates NEVER give up. (LV Sun) - There are always hands out for projects such as this. And people who think it's something "world class" rather than just a cute toy.

And finally.....

Are we hitting critical mass for Las Vegas Vloggers? (FeedSpot) - At last count there were over 100 vlogs about the Resorts World opening. After watching several of them they were all the same thing. Ditto for the people who live streamed it. This will be the subject of a future blog series.

Soon All College Football will be SEC.

 The news that UT-Austin and Oklahoma have approached the SEC regarding membership should not come as a massive surprise. The Big XII (Ten) has always been on life support as long as the big two wanted it to be. Once they decide to pull the plug, the other eight schools are going to need to scramble and hope to find a good landing spot.

And yes, it is and has been for a while now all about money.

I had thought for some time that the logical landing spot for UT-Austin and OU would have been the Pac-12. What I did not take into full account was the full breadth of the incompetence the West Coast conference contained. IF there was any hope of competitive balance in the future the Pac-12 needed to rise up above their mediocrity and embrace these two brand titans in order to compete. IF the SEC remains sensible, and doesn't fall victim to the feverish rantings of Aggie, then they'll understand that by bringing in these two very profitable, and very high-profile, programs will only ensure their dominance of the college football landscape long-term.

The Big XII is toast. After the departure of the big two the highest profile team remaining is...ummmm..is...well....Oklahoma State? 

Of course, I'm talking purely from a football perspective, which is what this is all about. The Big XII could try and reinvent themselves as a basketball conference by bringing in say, Memphis, Cincinnati and possibly even Houston but from a football perspective that's not much better than the current American. In fact, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State and Texas Tech might look to the American as a landing spot.

Kansas is a weird bird. They have an extremely profitable basketball team but their football program is in shambles. Most people are pointing to the B1G for them as a possible landing spot but I don't see it. Why would the B1G want another Rutgers? A Rutgers with a bad TV market located in a below-average recruiting area? Methinks the Big East might be a landing spot for Kansas who would then demote the football program to the FCS. It might be the best solution for everyone.

West Virginia is interesting, they are still a very popular program in the region and could add some value to the ACC, who is going to need to figure things out if they're going to even remotely compete with the SEC juggernaut that is to come. The ACC might even consider Oklahoma State, who would not be a regional fit but since when does geography matter in modern college sports?

Oklahoma State could also try and team up with Texas Tech and move West to the Pac-12. Yes, travel would be a bitch and neither school really brings a lot to the Conference but moving to 16 teams is gong to be a must for the power conferences if this thing pushes through.

Based on that logic, despite Iowa being agin' it you would think the B1G would have interest in Iowa State, and possibly (but not very likely) Kansas State. I would certainly find the Wildcats of the Little Apple more appealing than Kansas right now, but a better target for the B1G might be the aforementioned Cincinnati Bearkats.

Of course, all of this is just speculation, their is nothing official about UT-Austin or OU moving to the SEC yet, just reports that they've inquired about inclusion. What is for sure is that UT-Austin and OU have decided that the Big XII is no longer worth keeping on life support and that their monetary athletic futures would be better suited playing under another flag. The proposed expansion of the College Football Playoff makes this even more likely since their road gets easier in the SEC due to the at-large positions.

What of those outside looking in?

Strangely, the American Athletic Conference could actually improve their standing by casting off their bottom tier (ECU, Temple) and replacing them with TCU and Baylor. They still would not be considered a Power conference but they would be a tougher one. I also see a possibility where Navy takes a look at Army and says "You know what? We're going the Independent route as well." In my mind that would be their best option, and would allow ECU to remain while Temple gets grabbed up by the MAC, a much better home for them than the American.

Regardless of how this plays out, in four or five years it's very likely that we're looking down at a markedly different college football landscape, and the path will be cleared for the new "Power 4" conferences to finally pull away from the NCAA and start their own, semi-pro, gig. IF the SEC adds the Big 2 from the Big XII their conference identity will become almost monolithic, more so than it is even today. Yes, aTm will not be happy, until those checks start rolling in. Then they will live with it.

The rest of us will learn to live with it as well. At least we'll still have the FunBelt, C-USA and the MAC to entertain us.

Public Health and the Future of Travel: How do we Solve a Problem like COVID-19

News out today that Clark County, NV is considering a new mask mandate for everyone indoors in public places regardless of vaccinated status makes me wonder what the point of getting the vaccine was? Couple that with Dr. Anthony "I'm lying because my lips are moving" Fauci calling for EVERYONE over 2 years of age to wear a mask, vaccinated or not, and it's becoming pretty clear that COVID-19 is going to be with us for quite some time. 

As much as we wanted it to go away, it won't. At least not anytime soon.

Never-you-mind that the media is STILL continually getting it wrong, acting as if the vaccinated cannot catch COVID-19 instead of recognizing that the vaccine makes you far less likely to get seriously ill should you be exposed and that you're most likely to be either asymptomatic or just feel like you have a cold.

When it comes to COVID-19 misinformation, the mainstream media is potentially the biggest offender of all. I'm assuming the Twitter suspension for those reporters is not forthcoming.

This is a big problem for you if you have travel plans in the future (as I do).

Planning for your casino trips just got a lot more difficult because it's hard to know what is going to be open, what, if any, capacity limitations are going to be in place and whether or not you're going to eventually have to provide some proof of vaccination to do much of anything?

I wish I had an answer for you, but I don't.

In a perfect world the clear answer would be "Get vaccinated and you should be fine" and the promises that we were given that if we got vaccinated we could return to something resembling normality would be borne out.

My feeling however is that was never really in the cards.

Our ruling class had to know that there was going to be a healthy level of vaccine hesitancy among the general populace and they HAD to know that this was going to cause COVID-19 to continue it's spread. Given that they never seriously looked at vaccine passports or something along those lines they also had to know that keeping restrictions in place, and limiting business and people, was always going to be a long-term strategy. While I do not think that mass lock-downs will ever be back on the table (they were wrong-headed, never before contemplated in pandemic response and utterly ineffective, often causing worse consequences than the virus itself) I do think that there is no small portion of the ruling class that LIKES wielding this new-found power and doesn't want it to go away all that quickly.

No, that's not a conspiracy theory, it's human nature. The missing village idiots who are in charge of things really only want to be both loved and feared as smart and powerful. Sure, they will mask their edicts in the language of "for the children (or helpless)" but it's really about exerting more control over those that can help themselves.

So, what are we going to do about COVID-19?

For now, we're probably going to have to put the masks back on, regardless of how idiotic this is for people who have 2 doses of vaccine flowing through their veins. The alternative is to refuse to wear a mask and risk arrest. A rather ironic false-choice being given to us by people who often call for the decriminalization of non-victimless crimes. Hey, if that's your thing, go for it. I, for one, would like to stay out of jail.

Depending on your feelings toward vaccination getting two jabs probably really is your best defense for the time being. Not perfect by any means, but better than nothing, assuming you have not previously caught it and have contact immunity that is. I have been fully vaccinated but have many friends who, for one reason or another (not all of them conspiracy theorist stuff) have chosen to not. So, we have to suck it up and wear masks, and listen to people screaming that they're useless. Another good idea would be a re-emphasis on social distancing. Hopefully you're all washing your hands, practicing good hygiene and covering your mouths when you cough/sneeze.

None of these things are perfect, but they do seem to help.

My biggest fear is that some local dictator types are going to try and reinstate lock downs.

They were not terribly effective the first time around and there's little reason to believe they will be the 2nd (or 3rd, or 4th, depending on where you live). Unless you are insane. Which, given the actions of the ruling class is a definite possibility.

Stay safe.

Gambling lies: "I'm a lifetime winner!"

I just completed a losing gambling trip. The video poker was not nice (I could not draw flies all weekend) and my timing was off on the slots. While this trip was especially bad in that nothing was hitting, it's not all that unusual for me to wind up a trip down a little.

In fact, that's my goal for every trip, just lose a little while gambling.

There are many out there who state that they are lifetime winners, especially on slots. If you understand slots that's a joke, because there is no strategy that you can play and no system you can put in place to make you a winner over time. Yes, there are a few people who have hit huge jackpots and are on the plus side of the ledger when it comes to slot play. People who hit MegaBucks, certain wide-area progressives and large jackpots on certain machines are probably up over the course of their lifetimes.

Everyone else?

No way.

In fact, there are some prominent Social Media personalities who claim to have a "slot-system" and claim to be "experts" on slot-play because of this and they claim that they are lifetime net positive.

I call bullshit.

Sports betting is the biggest home of liars though. VERY FEW sports bettors turn a profit on their actual bets. There are far more people who claim a profit but actually have losing records and make money off of suckers buying their losing picks from them. The most famous of these touts is Vegas Dave, but there are many, many more just like them. Of the few sports bettors that actually win for a living, you're very unlikely to see them touting picks. I can think of one or two, but that's it. A LOT of them are active on Twitter, but they're usually there to troll touts and maybe provide some basic gambling advice. Not sell picks.

Another lie that people tell regarding gambling is the existence of a winning system. Casinos love system bettors because they actually think they can win. While the best system might help you reduce the house edge, it will not tip it to your favor. The biggest example of this is strategy in blackjack. If you still think that strategy can help shift the house-edge to your favor ask yourself this: If strategy can become a winner why do casinos allow strategy cards at tables and, in many cases, sell them in their gift-shops? The answer? It won't.

A sub-group of blackjack players who might actually make money over time are card counters. If you want to judge their efficacy see just how quickly they get backed off and even eighty-sixed from a casino when playing their game. The fact is that casinos are not going to allow an advantage player to sit at their tables for too long. If the casino truly believes that you are gaining an advantage over them they are not going to let you play for long. This is especially true for blackjack card counters and advantage (or +EV) sports bettors at many books.

The lie of winning is only slightly less prevalent in poker than it is in blackjack. While I do know some winning poker players the majority of those out there claiming wins (and peddling a poker system) are nothing more than poker touts. They make their money selling you their "system" (which is usually just a rehashed model of something that they read in a poker book and repackaged as their own) rather than actually sitting at a table playing cards.

The final group of "winners" are the cheaters. While they may gain a win in the short-run the overwhelming probability in their lives is that the casino is going to catch them, and that they are going to jail for quite some time.

Remember that gambling is entertainment, and your bet is the price for that entertainment. The structure of the odds on all the games means that you are most probably going to lose in the long-run, but that in the short run anything can happen. The most important lesson to learn is that you are there to have fun.

So, do that.

Have fun, bet smart, win jackpots.

But if you don't, then don't chase your losses and get ready to have fun on your next try.